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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Posterior Matching

FMCPE improves SBI accuracy by correcting posterior estimators with flow matching.

problem Model misspecification in SBI leads to biased or overconfident posteriors.
method Flow Matching Corrected Posterior Estimation (FMCPE) trains a posterior approximator and corrects it using calibration samples.
result FMCPE consistently mitigates misspecification effects, improving inference accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

ABI bypasses likelihood intractability with nonparametric distribution matching.

problem Approximate Bayesian computation's inefficiency in high-dimensional settings and under diffuse priors.
method Adaptive Bayesian Inference (ABI) compares posterior distributions directly using nonparametric distribution matching and MSW distance.
result ABI significantly outperforms other methods in high-dimensional or dependent observation regimes.

Flow Annealing Posterior Sampling unifies stochastic-process regression and PDE inverse problems.

problem Function-space posterior sampling for stochastic processes and inverse problems.
method Flow Annealing Posterior Sampling (FAPS) using pretrained function-space flow-matching priors.
result Coherent posterior samples with accurate uncertainty quantification.

Exact guidance for discrete data improves posterior sampling efficiency.

problem Inefficient guidance for discrete data in posterior sampling.
method Derive exact transition rate for desired distribution given learned discrete flow matching model.
result Significantly improved efficiency with single forward pass per sampling step.

A novel diffusion method for Bayesian posterior sampling with theoretical guarantees.

problem Efficiently sampling from complex posterior distributions in Bayesian inversion.
method Diffusion-based posterior sampling using Langevin dynamics and PnP framework.
result The method converges even for multi-modal posterior distributions with theoretical error bounds.

Generative sampler learns velocity fields for efficient posterior inference.

problem Sampling from complex posterior distributions in high dimensions.
method Generative multivariate posterior sampler via flow matching, learning a velocity field for a deterministic transport map.
result Conditional Brenier map enables fast generation of credible sets with theoretical consistency guarantees.

New method DDVI improves posterior inference for deep Gaussian processes.

problem Inference of inducing points in DGPs is challenging and biased.
method DDVI uses denoising diffusion SDE and score matching for posterior approximation.
result Empirically shows DDVI outperforms baseline methods in inducing point inference.

Unified framework for simulation-based inference learns a single model for multiple tasks.

problem Simulation-based inference for multiple tasks with limited model retraining.
method Unified flow-matching generative model with query-aware masking distribution.
result Competitive performance on various inference tasks and real-world problems.

We extend diffusion models to function spaces and introduce a new method for sampling from posterior distributions.

problem Sampling from posterior distributions in infinite-dimensional function spaces using diffusion models.
method Infinite-dimensional extension of Doob's hh-transform, Supervised Guidance Training for efficient sampling.
result We prove that diffusion models can be conditioned to sample from posterior distributions and introduce a simulation-free score matching objective.

End-to-end neural network improves QbE-STD in multilingual speech search.

problem Query by example spoken term detection in zero-resource scenarios.
method Use of multilingual bottleneck features and CNN for pattern matching, integrated into a fully neural network framework.
result CNN-based matching outperforms DTW-based matching using bottleneck features.

Paper tackles model vulnerabilities by reconstructing training data.

problem Reconstructing training data from model parameters poses a security risk.
method Developed a mathematical framework and score matching method for both Bayesian and non-Bayesian models.
result First score matching framework for reconstructing data in Bayesian models.

Paper presents variational estimates for EBLVMs without structural assumptions.

problem Challenges in learning and evaluating EBLVMs due to intractable true posteriors and partition functions.
method Variational estimates of the score function and its gradient (VaES and VaGES) in a general EBLVM.
result The estimates can be applied to KSD and SM-based methods to learn EBLVMs and estimate Fisher divergence.

New method uses neural exponential families for likelihood-free inference.

problem Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference with intractable likelihood.
method Score Matching neural conditional exponential families for approximate likelihood.
result State-of-the-art performance in posterior sampling for intractable likelihood models.

Cold posteriors in BNNs harm performance, likely due to incorrect likelihood.

problem Cold posteriors in Bayesian neural networks degrade performance.
method Developed a generative model explaining cold posteriors and matched it to the tempered likelihoods.
result Cold posteriors are a result of using the wrong likelihood for image classification datasets.

Variational auto-encoders (VAE) are scalable and powerful generative models. However, the choice of the variational posterior determines tractability and flexibility of the VAE. Commonly, latent variables are modeled using the normal distribution with a diagonal covariance matrix. This results in computational efficien…

2016-11-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Linear VAEs explain posterior collapse in VAEs via local maxima in log marginal likelihood.

problem Posterior collapse in VAEs where variational posterior matches prior for some latent variables.
method Analysis of linear VAEs and their relation to pPCA, proving ELBO does not introduce spurious local maxima.
result Linear VAEs have identifiable global maxima corresponding to principal component directions, explaining posterior collapse.

Paper tightens variational GP approximations for large datasets.

problem Scaling Gaussian processes to large datasets.
method Relaxing the standard assumption about inducing points' posterior matching the prior, leading to a tighter variational approximation.
result The proposed approximation consistently matches or outperforms standard sparse variational GPs while maintaining computational cost.

Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability d…

2014-06-10abs ↗pdf ↗

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restricti…

2015-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Focal loss improves classification but not class-posterior probability estimation.

problem Improving class-posterior probability estimation from focal loss.
method Proved classification-calibration and derived a transformation to recover true class-posterior probabilities.
result A transformation of the confidence score from focal loss minimization allows recovery of true class-posterior probabilities.

Variational autoencoder is a powerful deep generative model with variational inference. The practice of modeling latent variables in the VAE's original formulation as normal distributions with a diagonal covariance matrix limits the flexibility to match the true posterior distribution. We propose a new transformation, …

2019-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

A new ensemble filter uses transport maps and MMD optimization for high-dimensional data assimilation.

problem High-dimensional data assimilation challenges in ensemble filtering.
method Optimized Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) for transport map construction.
result Significant improvement in robustness and posterior approximation.

This work tackles posterior collapse in conditional and hierarchical VAEs.

problem Posterior collapse in VAEs leads to poor latent variable representations.
method Theoretical analysis of linear conditional and hierarchical VAEs, empirical validation.
result Theoretical and empirical evidence of posterior collapse causes in conditional and hierarchical VAEs.

Method evaluates disentanglement in DLVMs, including those not aligned with latent axes.

problem Evaluate disentanglement in DLVMs, especially those not aligned with latent axes.
method Proposes a statistical method to discover generative factors of a dataset.
result Empirically demonstrates the advantage of the method on two datasets.

Deep latent variable models (LVM) such as variational auto-encoder (VAE) have recently played an important role in text generation. One key factor is the exploitation of smooth latent structures to guide the generation. However, the representation power of VAEs is limited due to two reasons: (1) the Gaussian assumption…

2019-08-30abs ↗pdf ↗

New method uses neural networks to efficiently approximate Bayesian inference for complex models.

problem Efficiently approximating Bayesian inference for complex models with varying temperatures.
method Fully amortized neural posterior estimator trained on a single forward pass.
result Achieves competitive posterior approximations across various temperatures and benchmarks.

The paper proposes a method to learn hyperparameters without validation sets, improving efficiency and accuracy.

problem Training large models on limited data to avoid overfitting and reduce validation set usage.
method Gradient-based learning of hyperparameters via a data-emphasized evidence lower bound (ELBO) objective.
result The data-emphasized ELBO reduces hyperparameter search time from 88+ hours to under 3 hours while maintaining comparable accuracy.

HyperAgent improves RL exploration in large-scale problems.

problem Efficient exploration in large-scale reinforcement learning problems.
method Hypermodel framework for incremental posterior approximation without conjugacy.
result HyperAgent achieves logarithmic per-step computational complexity and sublinear regret.

Accelerates pulsar light curve inference with learned representations and optimization.

problem Computational expense of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior inference.
method Combining U-Net latent representations with local simulator-guided optimization.
result 120x reduction in inference time (24 hours to 12 minutes) with accuracy preserved.

PPT optimizes transformer behavior by steering its latent posterior using prior samples.

problem Eliciting desired behavior from transformers without backpropagation.
method Posterior Prefix Tuning (PPT) uses predictive Monte Carlo (PMC) samples and importance sampling to optimize the latent posterior.
result PPT optimizes transformer behavior without backpropagation, achieving high utility across different utility functions.

Improved VAE models avoid posterior collapse in text modeling.

problem Posterior collapse in VAEs leads to poor data manifold parameterization.
method Coupled-VAE couples a VAE with a deterministic autoencoder to improve encoder and decoder parameterizations.
result Coupled-VAE consistently improves results in probability estimation and latent space richness.

Improved Thompson Sampling using fractional posteriors achieves better regret bounds.

problem Optimizing regret in stochastic multi-armed bandit problems.
method Using α\alpha-posterior distributions, derived frequentist regret bounds.
result Instance-dependent and instance-independent regret bounds established.

DTM improves dLLM fine-tuning stability and performance.

problem Intractable sequence-level marginal likelihoods for masked diffusion models.
method Discrete Tilt Matching (DTM) recasts dLLM fine-tuning as state-level matching of local unmasking posteriors under reward tilting.
result DTM yields strong gains on Sudoku and Countdown while remaining competitive on MATH500 and GSM8K.