The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is one of the best performing methods to quantify the long-term correlations in nonstationary time series. Many long-term correlated time series in real systems contain various trends. We investigate the effects of polynomial trends on the scaling behaviors and the performa…
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
169,341 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “Polynomial trends”
Forecast future volatilities and correlations based on current trends.
problem Predict future volatilities and correlations in financial markets.
method Use cubic and quadratic polynomials of current trend strengths.
result Accurate quantification of trend effects on volatilities and correlations.
Additive trend filtering uses discrete total variation to build piecewise polynomials.
problem Estimating functions with piecewise polynomial components.
method Trend filtering with localized total variation regularization.
result Additive trend filtering achieves optimal error rates and is computationally efficient.
The paper explores efficient global optimization using Kriging models.
problem Optimizing complex functions with limited evaluations.
method Implemented UK-EGO framework with automatic trend function selection.
result PCK-EGO variant showed the best performance.
Empirical study on trends reversion in financial markets.
problem Understanding when trends in financial markets revert.
method Polynomial regression and bootstrapping on 30 years of daily futures prices.
result Trends revert when they reach a critical level of statistical significance.
Boosted HP filter improves trend estimation in economic data.
problem Inadequate HP filter settings for trend estimation in economic data.
method Iterating the HP smoother to improve trend estimation and eliminate trends.
result Asymptotic recovery of trend mechanisms involving unit root processes and polynomial drifts.
Bayesian dynamic topic model improves topic prevalence prediction.
problem Estimating document-specific topic proportions in dynamic topic models.
method Developed a Bayesian dynamic topic model with covariates and dynamic structure, including polynomial trends and periodicity. Used MCMC algorithm with Polya-Gamma data augmentation and Gaussian approximation.
result Explicitly modeling polynomial and periodic behavior improves topic prevalence prediction.
We examine several recently suggested methods for the detection of long-range correlations in data series based on similar ideas as the well-established Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). In particular, we present a detailed comparison between the regular DFA and two recently suggested methods: the Centered Moving A…
Kronecker trend filtering improves lattice data smoothing.
problem Estimating smooth functions on lattice data.
method Penalized least squares with Kronecker products of univariate trend filtering penalties.
result Kronecker trend filtering outperforms linear smoothers in high dimensions.
A new Twitter sentiment model predicts stock market trends with high accuracy.
problem Real-time prediction of future stock market prices.
method Baseline correlation approach using polynomial regression, classification, and lexicon-based sentiment analysis.
result Predicts stock market trends with 67.22% accuracy, up to 15 time samples in advance.
We study trend filtering, a recently proposed tool of Kim et al. [SIAM Rev. 51 (2009) 339-360] for nonparametric regression. The trend filtering estimate is defined as the minimizer of a penalized least squares criterion, in which the penalty term sums the absolute th order discrete derivatives over the input points…
New algorithm reduces dynamic regret for noisy gradient feedback with piecewise polynomial comparators.
problem Online estimation of piecewise polynomial trends with noisy feedback.
method Introduces variational constraint for piecewise polynomial comparators, designs adaptive algorithm.
result Achieves nearly optimal dynamic regret of $ ilde{O}(n^{ rac{1}{2k+3}}C_n^{ rac{2}{2k+3}})$.
Improved MFDFA method reveals more accurate multifractal spectra.
problem Inaccurate multifractal spectra in classical MFDFA.
method Introduced variable-degree polynomial fitting for detrending.
result Significant right side shift in singularity spectra for real-world data.
PolyNSD improves Neural Sheaf Diffusion with polynomial operators and spectral rescaling.
problem Limitations of common Neural Sheaf Diffusion implementations, including scalability and stability issues.
method Introduces Polynomial Neural Sheaf Diffusion (PolyNSD) with a degree-K polynomial propagation operator and spectral rescaling.
result PolyNSD achieves state-of-the-art results on both homophilic and heterophilic benchmarks with reduced runtime and memory requirements.
We study the nature of fluctuations in variety of price indices involving companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The fluctuations at multiple scales are extracted through the use of wavelets belonging to Daubechies basis. The fact that these basis sets satisfy vanishing moments conditions makes them ideal to …
Power Assisted Trend Followingq-fin.TR
Develops a new trend power indicator using DSP techniques.
problem Determining the strength and reversibility of trends.
method Derives a novel indicator using digital signal processing.
result Accuracy of the new indicator correlates with PNL performance.
Explains the difference between EMA and moving EMA, focusing on market trend indicators.
problem Understanding the difference between exponential moving average and moving exponential average.
method Explains the mathematical tools and definitions of trend indicators.
result Discusses the properties of the MACD indicator and its use in market trend analysis.
Bitcoin's attention is linked to Google Trends data, not general uncertainty.
problem Bitcoin's correlation with Google Trends data was previously misunderstood.
method Analyzed bidirectional relationships between Bitcoin returns and Google Trends attention over six days.
result Information flows from Bitcoin volatility to Google Trends attention, not the other way.
RobustTrend filters time series trends robustly against outliers and abrupt changes.
problem Extracting accurate trend signals from noisy, potentially abrupt-changing time series.
method Uses Huber loss for outlier suppression and a combination of first and second order differences for regularization.
result Our algorithm outperforms existing methods in synthetic and real-world datasets.
We make use of wavelet transform to study the multi-scale, self similar behavior and deviations thereof, in the stock prices of large companies, belonging to different economic sectors. The stock market returns exhibit multi-fractal characteristics, with some of the companies showing deviations at small and large scale…
Study shows RNNs are effective for trend detection in time series.
problem Detecting trends in noisy time series data.
method Empirical investigation of standard RNNs for trend detection using simulated data.
result Standard RNNs structures outperform other estimators in trend detection.
Enhanced trend-following strategy using network momentum for commodity futures.
problem Improving systematic trend-following in commodity futures markets.
method Combines univariate and cross-sectional trend indicators, including network momentum.
result Statistically significant improvements in portfolio performance metrics.
Re-evaluating Short- and Long-Term Trend Factors in CTA Replication: A Bayesian Graphical Approachcs.AI
This paper uses Bayesian models to analyze CTA returns across short and long-term trends.
problem The relative merits and interactions of short- and long-term trend systems in CTA replication remain controversial.
method Dynamic decomposition of CTA returns into short-term trend, long-term trend, and market beta factors using a Bayesian graphical model.
result The blend of horizons shapes the strategy's risk-adjusted performance.
Paper uses AI to predict market trends better than traditional methods.
problem Traditional trend following and momentum investing are limited.
method Uses deep learning and AI techniques for market trend prediction.
result Improves asset manager performance by increasing returns and reducing drawdowns.
Develops algorithms to estimate trends in global temperature variability.
problem Estimating trends in cloud reflectance temperature variability.
method Two novel algorithms for dense, gridded observations over space and time.
result Evaluation of methods with simulated and real-world data.
Two new methods improve time series analysis by capturing trend information.
problem Missing important information, especially trend, in high-dimensional time series.
method Two new approaches: 1) Relative mean value of each segment, 2) Binary string representing trend.
result Improves accuracy and effectiveness in similarity measurement and anomaly detection.
Ethereum trends analyzed through blockchain transactions and Google searches.
problem Identifying market manipulation in crypto prices.
method Big data analysis of Ethereum transactions, smart contracts, and search volumes.
result Big players manipulate crypto markets after price drops.
Paper optimizes trend-following portfolios using autocorrelation models.
problem Developing an optimal trend-following portfolio strategy.
method Introduces a unifying theoretical setting with autocorrelation models for covariance matrices of trends and risk premia. Specifies practical models for covariance matrices. Decomposes optimal portfolio into four basic components.
result Empirical backtests confirm overperformance of the proposed optimal portfolio.
Much information available on the web is copied, reused or rephrased. The phenomenon that multiple web sources pick up certain information is often called trend. A central problem in the context of web data mining is to detect those web sources that are first to publish information which will give rise to a trend. We p…
Enhanced LSTM predicts equity trends, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Nonstationary and nonlinear market regimes challenge trend forecasting.
method LSTM-based framework for forecasting equity trend differences.
result LSTM framework outperforms traditional methods in terms of overall PNL.
Estimates piecewise polynomials and bounded variation functions using optimal decision trees.
problem Estimating piecewise smooth functions in general dimensions.
method Dyadic CART and Optimal Regression Tree (ORT) estimators for piecewise polynomials and bounded variation functions.
result Oracle inequalities and risk bounds for ORT estimators, demonstrating adaptivity and optimality.
In this paper we study automatically recognized trends and investigate their statistics. To do that we introduce the notion of a wavelength for time series via cross correlation and use this wavelength to calibrate the 1-2-3 trend indicator of Maier-Paape [Automatic One Two Three, Quantitative Finance, 2013] to automat…
Survey finds log-normal distribution fits better to market trends than stock prices.
problem Analyzing market-technical trend data for better trading systems.
method Statistical evaluation of market-technical trend variables.
result Log-normal assumption better fits market trend data than daily stock returns.
In this article, we discuss various implementation of L1 filtering in order to detect some properties of noisy signals. This filter consists of using a L1 penalty condition in order to obtain the filtered signal composed by a set of straight trends or steps. This penalty condition, which determines the number of breaks…
The paper predicts stock trends from news headlines using NLP.
problem Predicting stock trends from news headlines.
method Statistical and deep learning models with NLP techniques.
result Improved accuracy in predicting DJIA trends.
X-Trend quickly adapts to new financial regimes, increasing Sharpe ratio by 18.9%.
problem Adapting to rapidly changing financial market conditions.
method Few-shot learning and cross-attention mechanism.
result X-Trend increases Sharpe ratio by 18.9% over a neural forecaster and 10-fold over a conventional strategy.
Two centuries of trend followingq-fin.PM
We establish the existence of anomalous excess returns based on trend following strategies across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indices, bonds) and over very long time scales. We use for our studies both futures time series, that exist since 1960, and spot time series that allow us to go back to 18…
The paper examines how NFT valuations correlate with market data and social trends.
problem Predicting NFT valuations based on market data and social trends.
method Utilizes public market data, NFT metadata, and social trends data; employs linear regression and recurrent neural networks.
result Identifies correlations between NFT valuations and various features.
Retail Market Analysisq-fin.GN
Analyzes retail trends from sales, search, and reviews.
problem Optimizing inventory and marketing for better customer satisfaction.
method Historical sales data, search trends, and customer reviews.
result Identifies patterns and trending products for retailers.
The paper introduces a new method to identify trends in noisy signals efficiently.
problem Identifying unknown underlying trends in noisy signals, especially with abrupt changes and outliers.
method Developed the Adaptive Trend Filter and an enhanced coordinate descent algorithm.
result The method can consistently identify components in the underlying trend and multiple level-shifts.
Is Trend Still Your Friend?: A Microstructural Account of the Demise of Short-Term Trend-Followingq-fin.TR
Short-term trend-following has stopped delivering profits since 2009, especially on smaller market ticks.
problem The profitability of short-term trend-following has declined since 2009.
method Cross-sectional analysis of 100 liquid futures contracts from 1995-2025, evaluating four explanations.
result The decline in short-term trend-following profits is linked to smaller market ticks, not asset class or liquidity.
This paper presents a fast and robust algorithm for trend filtering, a recently developed nonparametric regression tool. It has been shown that, for estimating functions whose derivatives are of bounded variation, trend filtering achieves the minimax optimal error rate, while other popular methods like smoothing spline…
Proposes LSTM for financial market trend forecasting.
problem Challenges in financial market trend forecasting.
method Uses LSTM for financial market trend forecasting.
result Improves performance compared to traditional methods.
Study refines trend-following strategy to improve adaptability.
problem Challenges in practical implementation of historical trend-following strategies.
method Modifications to historical strategy, including T-bills exclusion, alternative allocations, industry exclusions, momentum signals, and Walk-Forward Analysis.
result Persistent challenges in adapting historical strategies to modern markets.
Trend following in cryptocurrencies yields high returns, similar to commodities.
problem Investing in cryptocurrencies using trend following strategies.
method A decade of data analysis on cryptocurrency markets and trend following strategies.
result Cryptocurrencies offer strong returns and diversification against traditional equities.
New insights into trend following strategies show strong convexity in CTA performance.
problem Explaining the positive convexity of CTA performance.
method Revisits trend following strategies and measures long-term and short-term realized variance.
result Shows strong convexity in CTA performance, stronger than anticipated.
We find stationary distributions in a financial model with trends and mean-reversion.
problem Financial markets with competing trends and mean-reversion.
method Analytical derivation of stationary distributions in various noise and feedback regimes.
result The distributions are unimodal Gaussians in small noise, small feedback limits, but can be bimodal for stronger trends.
Study detects emerging trends in financial news articles about Microsoft.
problem Challenges in identifying trends in long-form financial news articles.
method Topic modeling and term frequency for keyword similarity analysis.
result Demonstrates the influence of the pandemic on Microsoft.