Scores political leanings in Web3 betting markets.
problem Understanding political motivations in decentralized prediction markets.
method Constructing PBLS from Polymarket data, analyzing 15k addresses, 4k events, 8k markets.
result Validated PBLS through internal and external comparisons, revealing political and profit motives.
Lean Copilot uses LLMs to assist theorem proving in Lean, improving efficiency and automation.
problem Challenges in using existing neural theorem provers to prove novel theorems autonomously.
method Introduces Lean Copilot, a framework for integrating LLMs into Lean's theorem proving process.
result Lean Copilot automates 74.2% of proof steps on average, significantly improving over existing methods.
Paper presents a privacy-preserving algorithm for estimating peer effects using the Ising model.
problem Privacy concerns in estimating peer effects using network data.
method Developed a (ε,δ)-differentially private algorithm using Ising model. result Established regret bounds and validated performance on synthetic and real-world networks.
Report on formalizing differential geometry in Lean.
problem Formalizing differential geometry in a proof assistant.
method Lean's type theory approach to formalization.
result Surprising differences between formal and informal proofs.
GRASP removes spurious correlations in fine-tuned models, improving task performance and reducing bias.
problem Fine-tuned models can latch onto spurious correlations, leading to bias and reduced generalization.
method GRASP identifies and removes spurious correlations from model weights without removing latent factors.
result GRASP significantly reduces bias and improves task performance in various fine-tuning tasks.
Formalizes synthetic differential geometry in Lean.
problem Formalizing synthetic differential geometry in a proof assistant.
method Formalization of synthetic differential geometry with Lean and mathlib.
result Proves a Taylor theorem for functions of several variables.
Lean 4 formalizes Stokes' theorem for smooth singular cubes.
problem Formalizing Stokes' theorem for singular cubes in arbitrary dimensions.
method Using true differential-form pullback via Frechet derivative, bridging to mathlib4's extDeriv.
result d^2=0 for singular cubical chains, chain-level Stokes extended.
Lean 4 library formalizes mathematical finance, verifying over 200 theorems.
problem Formal verification of complex financial mathematics.
method Lean 4 proof assistant, Mathlib, and BrownianMotion package.
result Formal verification yields certified unification of known results.
Paper finds political networks reduce bond issuance costs in China.
problem The financial value of within-government political networks in China.
method Using municipal leaders' working experience to measure political networks, the study examines the effect on bond issuance yield spreads.
result Political networks reduce bond issuance yield spreads by improving issuer credit ratings, especially in less developed financial markets.
LeanML reduces machine learning project waste by estimating best performance without training models.
problem Avoidable wastes in machine learning projects.
method Lean design pattern based on mutual information and performance metrics.
result Estimating best performance without training models is faster and cheaper.
The paper explores learning from label proportions, showing differences in efficiency between LLP and PAC learning.
problem Learning from label proportions (LLP) in unlabeled data with given label proportions.
method Formal definition and computational complexity analysis of LLP learning.
result LLP learning is more restrictive than PAC learning for finite VC classes, and some classes are uncharacterizable.
A study ranks critical Lean Six Sigma tools for implementation in Portuguese companies.
problem Identifying the most important tools for successful Lean Six Sigma implementation in Portugal.
method An online survey with Portuguese consultants evaluated 37 tools based on frequency of use, difficulty, importance, and impact. A ranking was developed using a procedure to assess consultants' know-how.
result Honshin Kanri, VOC, VSM were identified as the most important tools for Lean Six Sigma implementation.
This paper formalizes Q-learning and linear TD convergence using Lean 4.
problem Formalizing convergence properties of Q-learning and linear TD learning. method Formal verification using Lean 4 theorem prover and Mathlib library.
result Formalized almost sure convergence of Q-learning and linear TD learning. Formalizes integral curves on Banach manifolds in Lean.
problem Existence and uniqueness of integral curves on Banach manifolds.
method Formalized differential equations on Banach spaces, then generalized to Banach manifolds.
result Established theorems for integral curves on Banach manifolds.
New method predicts political ideology from online activity.
problem Predicting political ideology from digital footprints.
method Statistical learning approaches applied to reddit data.
result Activity in non-political forums can predict political ideology with high accuracy.
TBIP uses texts to quantify lawmakers' political positions.
problem Quantifying lawmakers' political positions from speeches, tweets, etc.
method Unsupervised probabilistic topic model analyzing texts.
result TBIP separates lawmakers by party and infers ideal points close to vote-based.
Lean 4 library formalizes mathematical finance, verifying over 200 theorems.
problem Formal verification of complex financial mathematics.
method Lean 4 proof assistant, Mathlib, BrownianMotion package, formal verification of over 200 theorems.
result Formal verification yields certified unification of known financial results.
One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This paper describes how price changes helped lead the emergence of a political agenda acco…
Understanding how political attention is divided and over what subjects is crucial for research on areas such as agenda setting, framing, and political rhetoric. Existing methods for measuring attention, such as manual labeling according to established codebooks, are expensive and can be restrictive. We describe two co…
Transformed geometry into algebra to prove Pick's theorem efficiently.
problem Translating geometric Pick's theorem into formal algebraic proof.
method Formalized geometric Pick's theorem into algebraic proof using Lean.
result Efficient formal proof of Pick's theorem.
Based mainly on examples of interest in mechanics, we define the notion of a polite group action. One may view this as not only trying to give a more general notion than properness of a group action, but also to more fully understand the role of invariant functions in describing just about everything of interest in red…
Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
problem Predicting political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
method Structural break analysis and surrogate-based robustness tests.
result Human-driven stablecoin transactions shift significantly before major political events.
Community detection is a fundamental task in social network analysis. In this paper, first we develop an endorsement filtered user connectivity network by utilizing Heider's structural balance theory and certain Twitter triad patterns. Next, we develop three Nonnegative Matrix Factorization frameworks to investigate th…
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
problem Accurate hourly electricity demand forecasting in the face of multifaceted uncertainties.
method Interpretable probabilistic mid-term forecasting model using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs).
result Highlights vulnerability of countries to extreme weather scenarios under electric heating adoption.
Formalizes vNM utility theorem using Lean 4, proving existence and uniqueness.
problem Formalizing and proving the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theorem.
method Implement classical axioms in Lean 4, formalizing preference relations over lotteries.
result Machine-verified proofs of existence and uniqueness of utility representations.
A growing number of empirical studies suggest that negative advertising is effective in campaigning, while the mechanisms are rarely mentioned. With the scandal of Cambridge Analytica and Russian intervention behind the Brexit and the 2016 presidential election, people have become aware of the political ads on social m…
Formalizes the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing in Lean 4.
problem Formalizing the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing in a proof assistant.
method Formalization in Lean 4 over Mathlib, covering three market settings.
result Constructs the equivalent martingale measure explicitly and proves its properties.
In this paper we present a kinetic model with stochastic game-type interactions, analyzing the relationship between the level of political competition in a society and the degree of economic liberalization. The above issue regards the complex interactions between economy and institutional policies intended to introduce…
Every year at the United Nations, member states deliver statements during the General Debate discussing major issues in world politics. These speeches provide invaluable information on governments' perspectives and preferences on a wide range of issues, but have largely been overlooked in the study of international pol…
LeanDojo removes barriers to theorem proving with open-source tools and data.
problem Difficulty in reproducing and building on existing theorem proving methods.
method Introduces LeanDojo, an open-source Lean playground with toolkits, data, models, and benchmarks.
result ReProver, an LLM-based prover augmented with retrieval, outperforms non-retrieval baselines and GPT-4.
Foreign policy analysis has been struggling to find ways to measure policy preferences and paradigm shifts in international political systems. This paper presents a novel, potential solution to this challenge, through the application of a neural word embedding (Word2vec) model on a dataset featuring speeches by heads o…
Paper formalizes Simon's satisficing through FFSD, proving its equivalence to expected utility theory.
problem Formalizing Herbert Simon's bounded rationality concept in economic decision-making.
method Developed FFSD framework using Lean 4 theorem prover, proving equivalence to expected utility theory.
result Equivalence theorem linking FFSD to expected utility maximization for approximate indicator functions.
Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the explanations for cost overruns that are given in the literature. Overall, four categ…
The paper uses Black-Scholes model to analyze political support and coalition agreements.
problem Determining the minimum support level for a minor party in a pre-electoral coalition.
method Modeling political support as a stochastic process with a deterministic growth rate and applying Black-Scholes option pricing theory.
result The minimum support level for a minor party to gain a representative in a pre-electoral coalition.
Model predicts political ideology using context vectors to mitigate bias and scarcity.
problem Scarcity and selection bias in political ideology prediction.
method Proposes a statistical model decomposing embeddings into context and position vectors, training an end-to-end model for deployment.
result Model can predict ideological labels even with minimal biased data, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
Study examines Trump's crypto influence on markets, revealing conflicts and vulnerabilities.
problem Presidential power and cryptocurrency markets during Trump's second term.
method Mixed-methods approach combining quantitative and qualitative data.
result Political-linked digital assets became a distinct class with systemic vulnerabilities.
Background. In Italy, in recent years, vaccination coverage for key immunizations as MMR has been declining to worryingly low levels. In 2017, the Italian Gov't expanded the number of mandatory immunizations introducing penalties to unvaccinated children's families. During the 2018 general elections campaign, immunizat…
Understanding the representational power of Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) with multiple layers is an ill-understood problem and is an area of active research. Motivated from the approach of \emph{Inherent Structure formalism} (Stillinger & Weber, 1982), extensively used in analysing Spin Glasses, we propose a no…
Proposes a neural network model to improve predictions in biased datasets.
problem Reduces bias in predictions from datasets with selection bias.
method Integrates meta information about bias direction and quantity into a neural network model.
result Improves prediction accuracy in electoral polls with biased training data.
News attention to financial intermediaries and crises predicts excess bond premium and macroeconomic movements.
problem Drivers of the excess bond premium (EBP).
method News attention to 180 topics captures up to 80% of EBP variation and forecasts macroeconomic movements.
result News attention to financial intermediaries and crises drives up the EBP and predicts macroeconomic downturns.
Tests validity of DML estimators without assumptions.
problem Validating DML estimators without making assumptions.
method Develops tests to falsify assumptions for DML estimators.
result Falsifies assumptions for DML estimators with non-trivial power.
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
problem The role of prediction markets beyond forecasting.
method Transaction-level evidence from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Signal Credibility Index (SCI).
result Price signals in prediction markets are more influential due to persistence, breadth of trader types, and cross-platform consensus.
Anti-ELAB protests affected Hong Kong firms' stock prices, especially those linked to pan-democrats.
problem Impact of anti-ELAB protests on Hong Kong firms' stock prices.
method Daily protesting intensity measured by number of protestors from 2019/6/6 to 2020/1/17; analyzed stock price changes of firms.
result Anti-ELAB protests negatively affected firms linked to pan-democrats, positively affected red chips.
The study shows how trade uncertainty affects stock-bond correlations over time.
problem Impact of trade policy uncertainty on stock-bond correlations.
method Daily data analysis using GARCH-based models (CCC, STCC, DCC) with TPU and political dummy variables.
result Time-varying correlation models better capture the dynamics of stock-bond correlations than constant models.
cMCA uses contrastive learning to identify latent subgroups in political party data.
problem Identifying latent subgroups within political party data.
method Contrastive learning applied to multiple correspondence analysis (MCA).
result cMCA identifies latent subgroups not seen by traditional methods.
In this article we show that if a knot diagram admits a non-trivial coloring modulo 13 then there is an equivalent diagram which can be colored with 5 colors. Leaning on known results, this implies that the minimum number of colors modulo 13 is 5.
Policy shifts between Trump and Biden impact ESG investments, creating volatility.
problem Dramatic policy shifts between Trump and Biden administrations affect ESG investments.
method Analyzes contrasting policies of Trump and Biden administrations and their impacts on ESG investments.
result Policy changes significantly influence ESG investments, leading to volatility and portfolio reassessment.
There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections that may prompt radical policy changes. Although several studies have examined …