A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Research examines correlations of complex logarithms of lattice points, showing level repulsion and Poissonian behavior.
New examples of variational bivectors found that are not Poissonian.
The study examines correlations of logarithms of integers at different scalings.
In this paper, we introduce the concept of \emph{Poissonian occupation times} below level of spectrally negative Lévy processes. In this case, occupation time is accumulated only when the process is observed to be negative at arrival epochs of an independent Poisson process. Our results extend some well known conti…
Abstract result on correlations of pairs in exponentially growing discrete subsets.
We study the activity, i.e., the number of transactions per unit time, of financial markets. Using the diffusion entropy technique we show that the autocorrelation of the activity is caused by the presence of peaks whose time distances are distributed following an asymptotic power law which ultimately recovers the Pois…
Existence of Q-processes for Brownian motion on hyperbolic spaces with Poissonian potentials shown.
We introduce a deterministic dealer model which implements most of the empirical laws, such as fat tails in the price change distributions, long term memory of volatility and non-Poissonian intervals. We also clarify the causality between microscopic dealers' dynamics and macroscopic market's empirical laws.
Factor analysis has proven to be a relevant tool for extracting tissue time-activity curves (TACs) in dynamic PET images, since it allows for an unsupervised analysis of the data. Reliable and interpretable results are possible only if considered with respect to suitable noise statistics. However, the noise in reconstr…
We propose the point process model as the Poissonian-like stochastic sequence with slowly diffusing mean rate and adjust the parameters of the model to the empirical data of trading activity for 26 stocks traded on NYSE. The proposed scaled stochastic differential equation provides the universal description of the trad…
The usual development of the continuous-time random walk (CTRW) proceeds by assuming that the present is one of the jumping times. Under this restrictive assumption integral equations for the propagator and mean escape times have been derived. We generalize these results to the case when the present is an arbitrary tim…
Order cancellation process plays a crucial role in the dynamics of price formation in order-driven stock markets and is important in the construction and validation of computational finance models. Based on the order flow data of 18 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003, we investigate the empiric…
Study of bandit problem with Poisson decision times and Lévy processes.
Social, technological and economic time series are divided by events which are usually assumed to be random albeit with some hierarchical structure. It is well known that the interevent statistics observed in these contexts differs from the Poissonian profile by being long-tailed distributed with resting and active per…
The problem to accurately and parsimoniously characterize random series of events (RSEs) present in the Web, such as e-mail conversations or Twitter hashtags, is not trivial. Reports found in the literature reveal two apparent conflicting visions of how RSEs should be modeled. From one side, the Poissonian processes, o…
Avanzi et al. (2016) recently studied an optimal dividend problem where dividends are paid both periodically and continuously with different transaction costs. In the Brownian model with Poissonian periodic dividend payment opportunities, they showed that the optimal strategy is either of the pure-continuous, pure-peri…
In this paper, we revisit the optimal periodic dividend problem, in which dividend payments can only be made at the jump times of an independent Poisson process. In the dual (spectrally positive Lévy) model, recent results have shown the optimality of a periodic barrier strategy, which pays dividends at Poissonian divi…
This work provides a semi-analytic approximation method for decoupled forwardbackward SDEs (FBSDEs) with jumps. In particular, we construct an asymptotic expansion method for FBSDEs driven by the random Poisson measures with σ-finite compensators as well as the standard Brownian motions around the small-variance limit …
This paper consists of two parts. The first part is devoted to empirical analysis of consolidated order book (COB) for the index RTS futures. In the second part we consider Poissonian multi--agent model of the COB. By varying parameters of different groups of agents submitting orders to the book we are able to model va…
We study a linear price impact model including other liquidity takers, whose flow of orders either follows a Poisson or a Hawkes process. The optimal execution problem is solved explicitly in this context, and the closed-formula optimal strategy describes in particular how one should react to the orders of other trader…
Motivated by the desire to bridge the gap between the microscopic description of price formation (agent-based modeling) and the stochastic differential equations approach used classically to describe price evolution at macroscopic time scales, we present a mathematical study of the order book as a multidimensional cont…
We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random walk (CTRW) framework. The probability distribution of the stock price changes (log…
We explore the possibilities of importance sampling in the Monte Carlo pricing of a structured credit derivative referred to as Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). Modeling a CDO contract is challenging, since it depends on a pool of (typically about 100) assets, Monte Carlo simulations are often the only feasible ap…
In this paper we build a link between the Teichmuller theory of hyperbolic Riemann surfaces and isomonodromic deformations of linear systems whose monodromy group is the Fuchsian group associated to the given hyperbolic Riemann surface by the Poincare' uniformization. In the case of a one-sheeted hyperboloid with n orb…
Study on signal recovery from low-rank matrix with sparse noise.
We present a simple microstructure model of financial returns that combines (i) the well-known ARFIMA process applied to tick-by-tick returns, (ii) the bid-ask bounce effect, (iii) the fat tail structure of the distribution of returns and (iv) the non-Poissonian statistics of inter-trade intervals. This model allows us…
New method improves sampling for weakly log-concave posteriors.
Model captures neural activity related to behavior while separating internal computations.
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
LISBET automates social behavior analysis using machine learning.
The paper introduces new metrics for evaluating generative models of behavior.
Mobile phones can record individual's daily behavioral data as a time-series. In this paper, we present an effective time-series segmentation technique that extracts optimal time segments of individual's similar behavioral characteristics utilizing their mobile phone data. One of the determinants of an individual's beh…
Study reveals LLM personality patterns but lacks behavioral consistency.
Herd behavior is an important economic phenomenon, especially in the context of the recent financial crises. In this paper, herd behavior in global stock markets is investigated with a focus on intercontinental comparison. Since most existing herd behavior indices do not provide a comparative method, we propose a new h…
Interactive news recommendation has been launched and attracted much attention recently. In this scenario, user's behavior evolves from single click behavior to multiple behaviors including like, comment, share etc. However, most of the existing methods still use single click behavior as the unique criterion of judging…
Study examines if LLMs' trading styles match real market behavior.
A test measures artificial agents' human-like behavior in video games.
Method uses DNNs to approximate functions with specific asymptotic behavior.
Study models Ricci flow on complex surfaces, showing mixed behavior.
Model predicts human food choices based on demographics.
We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation in Markov decision processes. Off-policy evaluation is the task of evaluating the expected return of one policy with data generated by a different, behavior policy. Importance sampling is a technique for off-policy evaluation that re-weights off-policy returns to account…
Paper develops a framework for learning interpretable representations of sequential decision behavior.
Study uses contrastive learning to analyze market order behavior.
Collective behavior of the complex socio-economic systems is heavily influenced by the herding, group, behavior of individuals. The importance of the herding behavior may enable the control of the collective behavior of the individuals. In this contribution we consider a simple agent-based herding model modified to inc…
Study asymptotic behaviors of solutions near singular boundaries for the Yamabe problem.
We propose Turing Learning, a novel system identification method for inferring the behavior of natural or artificial systems. Turing Learning simultaneously optimizes two populations of computer programs, one representing models of the behavior of the system under investigation, and the other representing classifiers. …
Study uses ML to analyze financial behavior in big data.
Revisits behavioral finance option pricing model to align with rational asset pricing theory.