arXiv research

Study models market volatility with persistent and temporary impacts.

We develop correlated random measures, random measures where the atom weights can exhibit a flexible pattern of dependence, and use them to develop powerful hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. Hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models are usually built from completely random measures, a Poisson-process based c…

We develop dependent hierarchical normalized random measures and apply them to dynamic topic modeling. The dependency arises via superposition, subsampling and point transition on the underlying Poisson processes of these measures. The measures used include normalised generalised Gamma processes that demonstrate power …

A new approach models exploration in continuous-time RL using random measures.

We show under weak hypotheses that $\partial X$, the Roller boundary of a finite dimensional CAT(0) cube complex $X$ is the Furstenberg-Poisson boundary of a sufficiently nice random walk on an acting group $Γ$. In particular, we show that if $Γ$ admits a nonelementary proper action on $X$, and $μ$ is a generating prob…

Random walks on mapping class groups identified with geodesic laminations.

Study shows Poisson boundary matches hyperbolic boundary for certain groups.

We consider a Poisson process $η$ on a measurable space $(\BY,\mathcal{Y})$ equipped with a partial ordering, assumed to be strict almost everwhwere with respect to the intensity measure $λ$ of $η$. We give a Clark-Ocone type formula providing an explicit representation of square integrable martingales (defined with re…

This paper presents theory for Normalized Random Measures (NRMs), Normalized Generalized Gammas (NGGs), a particular kind of NRM, and Dependent Hierarchical NRMs which allow networks of dependent NRMs to be analysed. These have been used, for instance, for time-dependent topic modelling. In this paper, we first introdu…

We present a general construction for dependent random measures based on thinning Poisson processes on an augmented space. The framework is not restricted to dependent versions of a specific nonparametric model, but can be applied to all models that can be represented using completely random measures. Several existing …

Random translation surfaces converge to a Poisson plane as genus grows.

A beta-negative binomial (BNB) process is proposed, leading to a beta-gamma-Poisson process, which may be viewed as a "multi-scoop" generalization of the beta-Bernoulli process. The BNB process is augmented into a beta-gamma-gamma-Poisson hierarchical structure, and applied as a nonparametric Bayesian prior for an infi…

New method calculates Ricci curvature from distances between weighted volumes.

IDPGs extend RDPGs with a Poisson process for random latent positions.

We present an overview of the broad class of financial models in which the prices of assets are Lévy-Ito processes driven by an $n$-dimensional Brownian motion and an independent Poisson random measure. The Poisson random measure is associated with an $n$-dimensional Lévy process. Each model consists of a pricing kerne…

Let $μ$ be a probability measure on $\text{Out}(F_N)$ with finite first logarithmic moment with respect to the word metric, finite entropy, and whose support generates a nonelementary subgroup of $\text{Out}(F_N)$. We show that almost every sample path of the random walk on $(\text{Out}(F_N),μ)$, when realized in Culle…

We present a general framework, the coupled compound Poisson factorization (CCPF), to capture the missing-data mechanism in extremely sparse data sets by coupling a hierarchical Poisson factorization with an arbitrary data-generating model. We derive a stochastic variational inference algorithm for the resulting model …

The completeness problem of the bond market model with the random factors determined by a Wiener process and Poisson random measure is studied. Hedging portfolios use bonds with maturities in a countable, dense subset of a finite time interval. It is shown that under natural assumptions the market is not complete unles…

Study KMS measures in Poisson geometry, focusing on $b$-Poisson manifolds.

In this paper we study Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with two reflecting right continuous with left limits obstacles (or barriers) when the noise is given by Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure mutually independent. The jumps of the obstacle processes could be either predictable or inaccessible. W…

Study on knotting in very long polymer chains, finding Poisson distribution for prime knot types.

Optimal probability measure found for constrained stochastic processes.

Multivariate Poisson approximation of the length spectrum of random surfaces is studied by means of the Chen-Stein method. This approach delivers simple and explicit error bounds in Poisson limit theorems. They are used to prove that Poisson approximation applies to curves of length up to order $o(\log\log g)$ with $g$…

In this paper we propose the notion of continuous-time dynamic spectral risk-measure (DSR). Adopting a Poisson random measure setting, we define this class of dynamic coherent risk-measures in terms of certain backward stochastic differential equations. By establishing a functional limit theorem, we show that DSRs may …

We are motivated by problems that arise in a number of applications such as Online Marketing and Explosives detection, where the observations are usually modeled using Poisson statistics. We model each observation as a Poisson random variable whose mean is a sparse linear superposition of known patterns. Unlike many co…

We extend some properties of random walks on hyperbolic groups to random walks on convergence groups. In particular we prove that if a convergence group $G$ acts on a compact metrizable space $M$ with the convergence property then we can provide $G\cup M$ with a compact topology such that random walks on $G$ converge a…

Model stock price dynamics using semi-Markov processes.

We describe random walk boundaries (in particular, the Poisson--Furstenberg, or PF-boundary) for a vast family of groups in terms of the hyperbolic boundary of a special free subgroup. We prove that almost all trajectories of the random walk (with respect to an arbitrary nondegenerate measure on the group) converge to …

Study finds saddle connections on random surfaces follow Poisson distribution.

Study of lengths of cycles in large genus random maps converging to Poisson process.

We construct a general stochastic process and prove weak convergence results. It is scaled in space and through the parameters of its distribution. We show that our simplified scaling is equivalent to time scaling used frequently. The process is constructed as an integral with respect to a Poisson random measure which …

New tree-structured Markov fields with Poisson marginals for counting variables.

Let G be a countable group which acts by isometries on a separable, but not necessarily proper, Gromov hyperbolic space X. We say the action of G is weakly hyperbolic if G contains two independent hyperbolic isometries. We show that a random walk on such G converges to the Gromov boundary almost surely. We apply the co…

We construct an infinitely exchangeable process on the set $\cate$ of subsets of the power set of the natural numbers $\mathbb{N}$ via a Poisson point process with mean measure $Λ$ on the power set of $\mathbb{N}$. Each $E\in\cate$ has a least monotone cover in $\catf$, the collection of monotone subsets of $\cate$, an…

Maps with a single face converge to hyperbolic surfaces in large genus.

Neural networks estimate SDEs with jump noise using a Tamed-Milstein scheme.

Study a risk model with tree-structured Poisson-Markov random field for rainfall events.

A new PCA method for analyzing point processes.

The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process f…

Spaces of convex and concave functions appear naturally in theory and applications. For example, convex regression and log-concave density estimation are important topics in nonparametric statistics. In stochastic portfolio theory, concave functions on the unit simplex measure the concentration of capital, and their gr…

Researchers calculated EVaR for various distributions using Lambert function.

In a series of recent papers Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard introduce an attractive class of continuous time stochastic volatility models for financial assets where the volatility processes are functions of positive Ornstein-Uhlenbeck(OU) processes. This models are known to be substantially more flexible than Gaussian …

We investigate the class of $σ$-stable Poisson-Kingman random probability measures (RPMs) in the context of Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling. This is a large class of discrete RPMs which encompasses most of the the popular discrete RPMs used in Bayesian nonparametrics, such as the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor p…

In this paper, we propose a new method of Bayesian measurement for spectral deconvolution, which regresses spectral data into the sum of unimodal basis function such as Gaussian or Lorentzian functions. Bayesian measurement is a framework for considering not only the target physical model but also the measurement model…

Study on length distribution of random multicurves on large genus surfaces converging to Poisson-Dirichlet distribution.

We present a new, fully generative model of optical telescope image sets, along with a variational procedure for inference. Each pixel intensity is treated as a Poisson random variable, with a rate parameter dependent on latent properties of stars and galaxies. Key latent properties are themselves random, with scientif…

Study on length spectrum of random hyperbolic 3-manifolds.

We describe a simple and efficient procedure for approximating the Lévy measure of a $\text{Gamma}(α,1)$ random variable. We use this approximation to derive a finite sum-representation that converges almost surely to Ferguson's representation of the Dirichlet process based on arrivals of a homogeneous Poisson process.…