New method detects structural shifts in multivariate Hawkes processes.
problem Detecting changes in multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Using Fréchet statistics on overlapping windows of causal network.
result Accurately detects and characterizes changes in causal structure.
New method uncovers hidden causal connections in multivariate point process networks.
problem Unobserved hidden variables confound causal discovery in high-dimensional point process networks.
method Proposes a deconfounding procedure to estimate causal interactions among observed nodes with unknown unobserved processes.
result The method accurately identifies causal interactions among observed processes, even with hidden variables.
UNIPoint universally approximates point process intensities.
problem How to precisely describe the flexibility of point process models.
method Proof using Stone-Weierstrass Theorem, transfer functions, and recurrent neural networks.
result UNIPoint performs better than other models on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Develops a deep non-stationary kernel for non-stationary spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Capturing non-stationary dependencies in point process data.
method Approximates the influence kernel with a novel low-rank decomposition and introduces a log-barrier penalty to maintain non-negativity.
result Demonstrates superior performance and computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Proposes a method to estimate and infer networks from multiple high-dimensional point processes.
problem Estimating and inferring networks from multiple high-dimensional point processes with shared and unique structures.
method Joint estimation procedure for networks of high-dimensional point processes incorporating weights to encourage similarity.
result Powerful hierarchical multiple testing procedure for edges of all estimated networks, controlling family-wise error rate.
MEG models for dynamic networks estimate dependencies and shared latent space relationships.
problem Modeling dynamic networks with shared latent space relationships and dependencies.
method MEG combines mutually exciting point processes and latent space models to estimate node-specific parameters and unobserved edges.
result MEG models can estimate intensities for unobserved edges, useful for anomaly detection in real-world applications.
Paper introduces a neural network-based non-stationary influence kernel for complex event data.
problem Modeling complex, non-stationary, and dependent discrete event data.
method Neural Spectral Marked Point Processes (NSMPP) with a versatile non-stationary influence kernel.
result NSMPP outperforms state-of-the-art models on synthetic and real data.
Neural marked point processes show saturation with complexity, leading to new simple architectures.
problem Performance saturation in neural marked point processes with complex architectures.
method Proposed GCHP with graph convolutional layers and likelihood ratio loss.
result GCHP reduces training time and improves model performance.
New framework models time-uncertain point processes for better event prediction.
problem Uncertainty in event times in point processes.
method Formulated and discretized continuous-time Hawkes processes with time grid, enabling optimization methods for inference.
result Parameter recovery with O(1/k) convergence rate using gradient descent and VI. Consider observing a collection of discrete events within a network that reflect how network nodes influence one another. Such data are common in spike trains recorded from biological neural networks, interactions within a social network, and a variety of other settings. Data of this form may be modeled as self-excitin…
A novel method for efficiently integrating spatiotemporal point processes.
problem Challenges in integrating spatiotemporal neural point processes, especially for flexible intensity functions.
method AutoSTPP (Automatic Integration for Spatiotemporal Neural Point Processes) extends a dual network approach to 3D STPP using ProdNet for decomposable parametrization of the integral network.
result AutoSTPP effectively sidesteps computational complexities and shows significant advantage in recovering complex intensity functions.
Global inducing points improve Bayesian neural network performance.
problem Improving Bayesian neural network performance.
method Adapting correlated approximate posterior to all layers in a Bayesian neural network and deep Gaussian processes using learned global inducing points.
result State-of-the-art performance on CIFAR-10 (86.7%) without data augmentation or tempering.
Proposes IGN for scalable Gaussian process networks.
problem Scalability and expressivity challenges in Gaussian processes.
method Inducing Gaussian process networks with learned inducing points.
result Significant advances over state-of-the-art methods.
A new model uses neural networks to efficiently learn multivariate temporal point processes.
problem Efficiently modeling multivariate temporal point processes with low parameter complexity.
method Modeling the cumulative hazard function with neural networks for each variate.
result The proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance on data fitting and event prediction tasks.
A new model predicts network events with improved accuracy and interpretability.
problem Predicting and understanding complex dynamic relational data in networks.
method Mutually Exciting Latent Space Hawkes (LSH) model for continuous-time networks.
result The LSH model outperforms existing models in prediction accuracy and interpretability.
New method learns spatiotemporal dynamics from random point process observations.
problem Challenges in modeling spatiotemporal dynamics from randomly collected data.
method Integration of neural differential equations, neural point processes, implicit neural representations, and amortized variational inference.
result Significant improvements in predictive accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing methods.
Paper introduces a novel point process model for graph data using GNNs.
problem Modeling discrete event data over graphs with influence kernel.
method Combines Hawkes kernel and Graph Neural Networks (GNN) for event prediction.
result Achieves superior predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art.
New statistical inference method for high-dimensional Hawkes processes.
problem Uncertainty evaluation of network estimates in high-dimensional point process data.
method Develops a new statistical inference procedure using concentration inequalities and martingale central limit theory.
result Characterizes the convergence rate of test statistics for high-dimensional Hawkes processes.
Meta-learning improves event prediction from short sequences.
problem Predicting events from short sequences is challenging.
method Meta-learning approach using recurrent neural networks and monotonic neural networks.
result Meta-learning enhances long-term prediction performance.
The paper introduces fixed-point centralities for networks and graphons.
problem Defining network centralities for networks and graphons.
method Fixed-point centralities defined via permutation equivariant mappings and graphons.
result Variation bounds of fixed-point centralities under mild assumptions.
The study provides a generalization bound for a family of implicit networks.
problem Theoretical understanding of implicit networks' generalization is limited.
method A generalization bound is derived for a family of implicit networks using a covering number argument for Rademacher complexity.
result A theoretical generalization bound is established for implicit networks.
Active learning methods for neural networks are usually based on greedy criteria which ultimately give a single new design point for the evaluation. Such an approach requires either some heuristics to sample a batch of design points at one active learning iteration, or retraining the neural network after adding each da…
Paper introduces a new gradient estimator for SNNs.
problem High variance in score function gradient estimator impedes SNNs training.
method Developed a differentiable point process to derive path-wise gradient estimator.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of path-wise gradient estimator through simulations.
New CUSUM method detects changes in Hawkes networks efficiently.
problem Detecting abrupt changes in Hawkes networks.
method Efficient online recursive implementation of CUSUM statistic.
result Proposed CUSUM method outperforms existing methods.
Online algorithm detects community structure in dynamic event streams.
problem Community detection in networks with temporal event streams.
method Continuous-time point process latent network models with fast online variational inference.
result Online inference achieves comparable community recovery to non-online methods but with computational gains.
New kernels from ELU and GELU networks reveal non-trivial fixed points.
problem Understanding fixed-point dynamics in deep neural networks with ELU and GELU activations.
method Deriving covariance functions and analyzing fixed-point dynamics of ELU and GELU networks.
result ELU and GELU networks exhibit non-trivial fixed-point dynamics, explaining implicit regularization in overparameterized models.
Model traffic congestion events using multi-modal data and attention-based neural networks.
problem Capture non-homogeneous temporal and directional spatial dependencies in traffic congestion events.
method Attention-based neural networks for point processes, adapted tail-up model for spatial statistics.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real data.
We introduce Graph Neural Processes (GNP), inspired by the recent work in conditional and latent neural processes. A Graph Neural Process is defined as a Conditional Neural Process that operates on arbitrary graph data. It takes features of sparsely observed context points as input, and outputs a distribution over targ…
SNEPPPs use squared neural networks to efficiently model Poisson point processes.
problem Efficiently modeling Poisson point processes with flexibility.
method Parameterizing intensity function with squared norm of a two-layer neural network.
result Closed-form integration of intensity function for quadratic time computation.
The paper develops methods to create private synthetic spatial point patterns.
problem Generating private synthetic spatial point patterns.
method Developed differentially private Poisson and Cox point synthesizers.
result The synthesizers effectively maintain privacy and utility of synthetic data.
Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time inte…
This paper models how features influence event triggers in high-dimensional networks.
problem Estimating context-dependent networks in high-dimensional marked point processes.
method Leveraging compositional time series and regularization methods, the paper considers autoregressive multinomial and logistic-normal models for network estimation.
result The logistic-normal model leads to a convex negative log-likelihood objective and captures dependence across categories.
Paper establishes bounds for RNN-TPPs, showing four-layer networks can achieve vanishing errors.
problem Understanding theoretical limits of RNN-TPPs.
method Characterized RNN complexity, constructed neural approximations, applied truncation technique.
result Four-layer RNN-TPPs can achieve vanishing generalization errors.
Information diffusion in online social networks is affected by the underlying network topology, but it also has the power to change it. Online users are constantly creating new links when exposed to new information sources, and in turn these links are alternating the way information spreads. However, these two highly i…
A temporal point process is a mathematical model for a time series of discrete events, which covers various applications. Recently, recurrent neural network (RNN) based models have been developed for point processes and have been found effective. RNN based models usually assume a specific functional form for the time c…
Estimates neuronal connectivity from spike times using flexible Hawkes processes.
problem Learning latent network structure from multivariate point process data.
method Proposes a new nonstationary Hawkes process and uses sparse least squares estimation.
result Establishes non-asymptotic error bounds and selection consistency for estimated parameters.
Unified framework detects changes in complex system models.
problem Accurate identification of dynamic changes in simulation models.
method Combines machine learning and process-driven simulation modeling.
result Significantly improves change point detection accuracy.
Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have received increasing attention in recent years with applications that span a wide range of disciplines including vital domains such as medicine, network security and autonomous transportation. However, neural network architectures are becoming increasingly complex and with an incre…
A deep Neyman-Scott process uses Poisson processes for efficient inference in complex point processes.
problem Efficient inference in complex hierarchical point processes.
method Developed an efficient posterior sampling via Markov chain Monte Carlo for likelihood-based inference.
result More hidden Poisson processes improve likelihood fitting and event prediction.
The paper develops a neural network-based method for detecting change points in large-scale time-evolving data.
problem Detecting and locating change points in multivariate time-evolving data.
method Two-step procedure involving neural network training and test error function calibration over moving windows.
result Consistent estimates for the number and locations of change points under temporal dependence.
This paper proposes a set of rules to revise various neural networks for 3D point cloud processing to rotation-equivariant quaternion neural networks (REQNNs). We find that when a neural network uses quaternion features under certain conditions, the network feature naturally has the rotation-equivariance property. Rota…
Networks play a central role in modern data analysis, enabling us to reason about systems by studying the relationships between their parts. Most often in network analysis, the edges are given. However, in many systems it is difficult or impossible to measure the network directly. Examples of latent networks include ec…
Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in nature and engineering. A case in point is a class of neural networks in the infinite-width limit, whose priors correspond to Gaussian processes. Here we perturbatively extend this correspondence to finite-width neural networks, yielding non-Gaussian processes as priors. The methodo…
In this paper, we diagnose deep neural networks for 3D point cloud processing to explore utilities of different intermediate-layer network architectures. We propose a number of hypotheses on the effects of specific intermediate-layer network architectures on the representation capacity of DNNs. In order to prove the hy…
EBPs model exchangeable data with flexible distributions.
problem Current energy-based models restrict set cardinality and limited distribution forms.
method Introduced Energy-Based Processes (EBPs) that extend energy models to exchangeable data with neural network parameterizations.
result EBPs can express more flexible distributions over sets without cardinality restrictions.
Deep neural networks and Gaussian processes are shown to be equivalent through activation functions.
problem Understanding the relationship between neural networks and Gaussian processes.
method Developing an equivalence theory based on activation functions and kernels.
result Models can be seen as neural networks with improved uncertainty prediction or deep Gaussian processes with increased accuracy.
EventFlow forecasts event sequences without autoregression, improving accuracy.
problem Forecasting errors in autoregressive models for event sequences.
method EventFlow uses flow matching to learn joint distributions over event times directly.
result EventFlow reduces forecast error by 20%-53% compared to baselines.
Advances in deep learning for spatio-temporal event modeling.
problem Limitations of traditional parametric models in capturing nonstationary dynamics.
method Integration of deep neural architectures to model conditional intensity function and influence kernels.
result Deep influence kernel approach enhances expressiveness and statistical explainability.