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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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6541,3071,9612,614 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Pick the Confident and Correct Expert

Multi-expert L2D underfits more severely, requiring new methods.

problem Underfitting in multi-expert L2D settings.
method PiCCE (Pick the Confident and Correct Expert), a surrogate-based method.
result PiCCE effectively reduces multi-expert L2D to a single-expert-like problem, resolving underfitting.

We present an intriguing question about lattice points in triangles where Pick's formula is "almost correct". The question has its origin in knot theory, but its statement is purely combinatorial. After more than 30 years the topological question was recently solved, but the lattice point problem is still open.

2006-02-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Sampling more can make models more confident in wrong answers, not better.

problem The modal ceiling and correlation ceiling limit the benefit of increased sampling.
method Analyzes the trade-offs between sampling more and selecting the best answer.
result Extra sampling beyond a certain point does not improve model performance and can even degrade it.

The paper ranks experts based on task performance with noisy evaluations.

problem Ranking experts based on their performance across multiple tasks with noisy evaluations.
method Develops adaptive strategies for ranking experts with a bound on the number of queries.
result Proves strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts with high probability.

Study on learning to defer to multiple experts with consistent surrogates and confidence calibration.

problem Addressing the open problems of consistent surrogates, confidence calibration, and ensembling of experts.
method Derive two consistent surrogates (softmax and OvA) and propose a conformal inference technique for choosing experts.
result The OvA-based loss does not cause mis-calibration propagation, while the softmax-based loss does.

The paper combines Bitcoin price models with expert corrections for better predictions.

problem Improving Bitcoin price predictions using statistical and expert insights.
method Linear regression models combined with expert corrections, utilizing Bayesian approach for fat-tailed distributions.
result Better price prediction results compared to using either model or expert opinion alone.

LLMs struggle with zero-shot annotation tasks due to model-internalized priors.

problem Impact of model-internalized priors on LLM performance in zero-shot annotation tasks.
method Investigated three dimensions: familiarity, decision stickiness, and susceptibility to misaligned task definitions.
result Nearly two-thirds of zero-shot errors are resistant to correction, with a rescue rate of 34.8%. Definition-Specific Familiarity (DSF) shows a positive association with model performance.

A2A metric evaluates bias correction methods, reducing ATE estimation errors.

problem Selection biases in non-randomized studies of medical treatments.
method Propensity score matching (PSM) with novel metric A2A.
result Reduces ATE estimation errors by up to 90% across synthetic and real-world datasets.

The study examines methods to correct measurement error in nutritional epidemiology studies.

problem Measurement error in nutritional studies leads to biased and underconfident estimates.
method The article reviews various bias-correction models for exposure variables in nutritional epidemiology.
result Bias-correction methods are essential for accurate inference in nutritional studies.

A deep learning model corrects precipitation bias without expert knowledge.

problem Precipitation bias in numerical predictions due to limited observation and models.
method Data-driven deep learning model with Denoising Autoencoder and Ordinal Regression blocks.
result The model achieves the best correcting performance and TS compared to classical methods.

We consider a basic problem at the interface of two fundamental fields: submodular optimization and online learning. In the online unconstrained submodular maximization (online USM) problem, there is a universe [n]={1,2,...,n}[n]=\{1,2,...,n\} and a sequence of TT nonnegative (not necessarily monotone) submodular functions arrive …

2018-06-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Improves accuracy and fairness in prediction systems with multiple domain experts.

problem Designing unbiased and accurate deferral systems with multiple experts.
method Proposes a framework for learning a classifier and deferral system that chooses to defer to multiple human experts.
result Significantly improves accuracy and fairness of final predictions compared to baselines.

New method improves model calibration by adjusting confidence based on prediction correctness.

problem Improving model confidence alignment with true class probabilities.
method Post-hoc calibration objective using transformed samples for training.
result Competitive calibration performance on in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets.

A method uses confidence scores to handle noisy labels for each instance.

problem Learning with noisy labels where each instance's label can randomly change.
method Introduces confidence-scored instance-dependent noise (CSIDN) to estimate transition distributions for each instance.
result Demonstrates the utility and effectiveness of CSIDN through experiments with synthetic and real-world noise.

Confidence intervals improve evaluation of binary prediction rules in data mining.

problem Uncertainty in performance measures estimation from finite datasets.
method Asymptotic normal approximations for confidence intervals, with a blurring correction.
result Improved finite sample coverage probabilities and general performance measures inference.

L2D-CD learns to defer expert recommendations in causal discovery.

problem Combining expert knowledge with data-driven results in causal discovery when expert recommendations may contradict data.
method Adapting learning-to-defer algorithms for pairwise causal discovery, L2D-CD learns a deferral function to select between expert recommendations and data-driven methods.
result L2D-CD outperforms both causal discovery methods and the expert used in isolation, identifying domains where the expert's performance is strong or weak.

In training speech recognition systems, labeling audio clips can be expensive, and not all data is equally valuable. Active learning aims to label only the most informative samples to reduce cost. For speech recognition, confidence scores and other likelihood-based active learning methods have been shown to be effectiv…

2016-12-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a Varying-Coefficient MoE model for analyzing dynamic data.

problem Inadequate constant coefficients in MoE models for dynamic settings.
method Varying-Coefficient Mixture of Experts (VCMoE) model with varying coefficients in gating and expert models.
result Established identifiability and consistency of the VCMoE model.

Adversarial MoE learns category-specific models for product search.

problem Variations in product features and importance across categories.
method Mixture of Experts with adversarial regularization and soft gating constraints.
result Improved clustering of gate output vectors and shared experts among similar categories.

Paper tackles weakly supervised learning from similarity-confidence data.

problem Learning binary classifier from unlabeled data pairs with confidence of similarity.
method Proposes an unbiased estimator of classification risk from Sconf data and risk correction scheme.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of proposed methods through experiments.

Improved AI lung ultrasound segmentation using expert confidence values.

problem Label uncertainty in lung ultrasound due to subjective interpretation by radiologists.
method Designing a data annotation protocol capturing expert confidence, training AI on binarized labels with confidence thresholds.
result Improved AI segmentation and better clinical outcomes (e.g., S/F oxygenation ratio estimation, patient readmission prediction).

We consider the problem of contextual bandits with stochastic experts, which is a variation of the traditional stochastic contextual bandit with experts problem. In our problem setting, we assume access to a class of stochastic experts, where each expert is a conditional distribution over the arms given a context. We p…

2018-02-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a method to improve deep neural networks' confidence estimates.

problem Overconfident predictions limit practical use of deep neural networks in safety-critical applications.
method Proposes a novel loss function, Correctness Ranking Loss, to regularize class probabilities.
result The method produces well-ranked confidence estimates and is effective for out-of-distribution detection and active learning.

New method uses variational inference to handle confounding in imitation learning.

problem Confounding due to different sensory inputs between expert and imitating agent.
method Train variational inference model to infer expert's latent information and use for latent-conditional policy training.
result Algorithm converges to correct interventional policy and achieves asymptotically optimal performance.

The paper addresses the gap between theoretical and practical confidence set widths in universal inference.

problem Inference procedures can be overly conservative, leading to wider confidence sets than expected.
method The authors identify the source of asymptotic conservativeness and propose a remedy based on studentization and bias correction.
result The proposed method achieves exact asymptotic coverage at the nominal 1α1-α level, even under model misspecification.

Proposes unbiased estimators for training mixture of experts models.

problem Efficiently training large-scale mixture of experts models on modern hardware.
method Two unbiased estimators based on principled stochastic assignment procedures.
result Both estimators are more effective and robust than biased alternatives.

New method tackles label noise on imbalanced datasets by considering class-specific uncertainty.

problem Label noise and class imbalance in imbalanced datasets.
method Epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty-aware class-specific noise modeling.
result Proposed ULC framework improves performance on imbalanced datasets.

The medical field stands to see significant benefits from the recent advances in deep learning. Knowing the uncertainty in the decision made by any machine learning algorithm is of utmost importance for medical practitioners. This study demonstrates the utility of using Bayesian LSTMs for classification of medical time…

2017-06-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proves a discrete Schwarz-Pick lemma for generalized circle packings.

problem Comparing geometric quantities of circle packings with different boundary values.
method Combinatorial Calabi flows and maximum principle.
result Discrete Schwarz-Pick lemma proven for generalized circle packings.

A contextual care protocol is used by a medical practitioner for patient healthcare, given the context or situation that the specified patient is in. This paper proposes a method to build an automated self-adapting protocol which can help make relevant, early decisions for effective healthcare delivery. The hybrid mode…

2018-11-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Near-optimal per-action regret bounds for sleeping bandits are derived.

problem Optimizing performance in sleeping bandits where arms and losses are chosen by an adversary.
method Directly minimizing per-action regret using generalized versions of EXP3, EXP3-IX, and FTRL with Tsallis entropy.
result Near-optimal bounds of order O(TAlnK)O(\sqrt{TA\ln{K}}) and O(TAK)O(\sqrt{T\sqrt{AK}}) are obtained.

Meta-algorithm optimizes nonstochastic bandits with infinitely many experts.

problem Maximizing reward by choosing actions sequentially from a set of experts.
method Proposed a variant of Exp4.P for infinitely many experts and a meta-algorithm.
result Proved high-probability upper bound of ildeO(iK+KT) ilde{\mathcal{O}} \big( i^*K + \sqrt{KT} \big) on regret.

Paper addresses hypothesis space misspecification in learning from human demonstrations and corrections.

problem Hypothesis space misspecification in learning from human demonstrations and corrections.
method Reason explicitly about how well the robot can explain human inputs given its hypothesis space.
result Demonstrates method on a 7 DOF robot manipulator.

Develops a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data with higher-order accuracy.

problem Estimation of parametric and semi-parametric models for dependent data.
method i.i.d. resampling of smoothed moment indicators, asymptotic refinements under mild assumptions.
result Higher-order correct asymptotic confidence distributions and confidence intervals.

Proposes a method to compute valid lower confidence bounds for multiple models selected based on their performance.

problem Model selection and evaluation in machine learning.
method Interprets model selection as a simultaneous inference problem, uses bootstrap tilting and maxT-type multiplicity correction.
result Yields valid lower confidence bounds that are at least as good as standard approaches and reliably reach nominal coverage probability.