TIME explains temporal models by analyzing feature importance.
problem Existing methods struggle with temporal models and feature importance.
method Model-agnostic permutation-based approach, temporal feature importance, hypothesis testing.
result TIME provides statistical rigor for explaining temporal models.
SVGP KAN integrates sparse variational GP with KANs for scalable probabilistic inference.
problem Lack of probabilistic outputs in standard KANs and cubic scaling of Gaussian Process methods.
method Sparse Variational GP-KAN combines KAN topology with sparse variational inference and permutation-based importance analysis.
result Enables probabilistic KANs to handle larger datasets with linear computational complexity.
A new method improves feature importance and model stress-testing reliability.
problem Estimating feature contributions in machine learning models for trust and transparency.
method Replacing multiple random permutations with a single, deterministic, and optimal permutation.
result Improved bias-variance tradeoffs and accuracy in challenging scenarios.
CPI overcomes limitations of permutation importance by providing accurate variable selection.
problem Misidentification of unimportant variables in complex models due to covariate correlations.
method Developed a model agnostic and computationally lean Conditional Permutation Importance (CPI) approach.
result CPI provides accurate type-I error control and more parsimonious variable selection.
There has been a recent surge of interest in studying permutation-based models for ranking from pairwise comparison data. Despite being structurally richer and more robust than parametric ranking models, permutation-based models are less well understood statistically and generally lack efficient learning algorithms. In…
Study uses deep learning to predict mycotoxin levels in Irish oats.
problem Predicting mycotoxin contamination in Irish oats to improve crop quality and safety.
method Investigated neural networks and transfer learning models for multi-response prediction.
result Transfer learning model TabPFN provided the best performance.
LGB+ improves macroeconomic forecasting by combining linear and tree models.
problem Efficiency in small samples for forecasting with mixed linear and nonlinear dynamics.
method LGB+ is a boosting procedure that evaluates both tree and linear candidates at each step, advancing only the winner. It decomposes forecasts into linear and nonlinear contributions.
result LGB+ delivers strong gains for targets with pronounced autoregressive dynamics or mixed signals.
Proposes CLIQUE for improved local variable importance in multi-class classification.
problem Lack of methods to characterize local structure in model loss space.
method CLIQUE (Conditional Local Importance by Quantile Expectations)
result CLIQUE emphasizes locally dependent information and captures interaction behavior.
The task of aggregating and denoising crowd-labeled data has gained increased significance with the advent of crowdsourcing platforms and massive datasets. We propose a permutation-based model for crowd labeled data that is a significant generalization of the classical Dawid-Skene model, and introduce a new error metri…
Random permutations can offer faster convergence than with-replacement sampling for some functions.
problem Understanding when and how random permutations outperform with-replacement sampling in SGD convergence.
method Analyzing convergence rates for different function classes (1D strongly convex, general strongly convex, quadratic strongly convex).
result The optimal convergence gap between random and permutation-based SGD varies from exponential to nonexistent, depending on the function class.
Paper introduces new importance metrics for machine learning models, linking them to CATE.
problem Interpreting black-box models' importance metrics due to data dependence and non-parametric nature.
method Introduces MVIM and CVIM, proposing permutation-based estimation and bias-variance decomposition.
result MVIM and CVIM have a quadratic relationship with CATE, addressing bias in correlated predictors.
A permutation-based SW test achieves minimax-optimal power for two-sample testing.
problem Nonparametric two-sample testing using the sliced Wasserstein distance.
method Proposes a permutation-based SW test and analyzes its performance.
result Achieves minimax separation rate n−1/2 over multinomial and bounded-support alternatives. New methods for assessing and visualizing feature groups in machine learning models.
problem Lack of methods for interpreting feature groups in machine learning models.
method Permutation-based, refitting, and Shapley-based techniques for grouped feature importance. Introduced a sequential procedure for identifying stable feature combinations. Developed a combined features effect plot.
result Effective methods for assessing and visualizing the importance and effect of feature groups in machine learning models.
Neural networks learn from ensemble forecasts without considering their order.
problem Improving reliability of probabilistic weather forecasts.
method Permutation-invariant neural networks for postprocessing ensemble forecasts.
result Models achieve state-of-the-art prediction quality in surface temperature and wind gust forecasts.
QWO speeds up causal discovery in LiGAMs by O(n2).
problem Scalability issues in permutation-based causal discovery methods for LiGAMs.
method Constructing a specific DAG for a permutation and searching over permutations to minimize edge count.
result QWO achieves a speed-up of O(n2) compared to state-of-the-art methods. We describe a simple, efficient, permutation based procedure for selecting the penalty parameter in the LASSO. The procedure, which is intended for applications where variable selection is the primary focus, can be applied in a variety of structural settings, including generalized linear models. We briefly discuss conn…
A new method uses vectorized summaries of persistence diagrams for efficient hypothesis testing.
problem Efficient hypothesis testing for large and complex persistence diagrams.
method Vectorized summaries of Betti functions and a new shuffling technique.
result The vectorized Betti function leads to competitive results compared to baseline methods.
XAI methods struggle with identifying true predictors from suppressors in linear datasets.
problem XAI methods misidentify suppressor variables as important features.
method Carefully crafted linear ground-truth dataset to study suppressor variables; evaluated various XAI methods.
result Most XAI methods fail to distinguish true predictors from suppressors in linear settings.
The study examines how permutation-based optimization performance varies across different function representations.
problem Understanding how the order of function evaluations affects optimization performance.
method Iterative search setting with sampling without replacement, algebraic function recombination, correlation analysis, hierarchical clustering, PCA, ANOVA.
result Algebraically modified benchmarks yield stable re-rankings and coherent clusters of functions and sampling policies, indicating non-additive search effort.
A standard model of (conditional) heteroscedasticity, i.e., the phenomenon that the variance of a process changes over time, is the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which is especially important for economics and finance. GARCH models are typically estimated by the Quasi-Maximum …
New tests detect high-order interactions without permutations.
problem Scalability issues in kernel-based tests for high-order interactions.
method Permutation-free high-order tests using V-statistics and cross-centring.
result Tests yield standard normal distribution under null hypothesis.
We extend the recently introduced theory of Lovasz-Bregman (LB) divergences (Iyer & Bilmes 2012) in several ways. We show that they represent a distortion between a "score" and an "ordering", thus providing a new view of rank aggregation and order based clustering with interesting connections to web ranking. We show ho…
We extend the recently introduced theory of Lovasz-Bregman (LB) divergences (Iyer & Bilmes, 2012) in several ways. We show that they represent a distortion between a 'score' and an 'ordering', thus providing a new view of rank aggregation and order based clustering with interesting connections to web ranking. We show h…
End-to-end deep learning for multi-view clustering improves accuracy across various data types.
problem Limited multi-view clustering methods for general data types and suboptimal two-stage process.
method Permutation-based canonical correlation objective for fused representations; pseudo-labels for clustering; theoretical error bound.
result Proposed model provides meaningful fused representations and effective clustering across multiple views.
A new metric assesses causal graphs using node permutations to detect inconsistencies.
problem Quantifying the goodness of causal graphs and distinguishing them from random graphs.
method Constructing a baseline through node permutations and comparing inconsistencies.
result The proposed metric can distinguish between true and wrong causal graphs.
This paper compares preprocessing techniques for XGBoost models on various data sets.
problem Improving predictive performance of XGBoost models through optimal data preprocessing.
method Comparison of feature selection, categorical handling, and null imputation methods.
result XGBoost importance by gain is the most consistent and highest-performing method for feature selection.
New framework compares credal sets for hypothesis testing with epistemic uncertainty.
problem Comparing distributions with partial ignorance and epistemic uncertainty.
method Credal two-sample testing framework for convex sets of probability measures.
result Direct integration of epistemic uncertainty in hypothesis testing.
A new kernel test reduces noise in MMD by focusing on leading eigen-directions.
problem Noise in trailing directional components degrades power of standard kernel two-sample tests.
method Truncate MMD spectral decomposition, retaining only leading eigen-directions.
result Our method achieves superior power and robustness, especially in high-dimensional and unbalanced settings.
A new random forest algorithm improves tree construction for optimal performance.
problem Improving the performance of random forests, especially in complex and smooth scenarios.
method Adaptive split-balancing method using permutation-based splitting criterion.
result Achieves minimax optimality under various Lipschitz and Hölder classes.
New tests for distributional causal effects using improved kernel estimators.
problem Testing for higher-order moments and multidimensional outcomes affected by treatment.
method Improved kernel estimators based on doubly robust mean embeddings.
result New permutation-based tests for distributional causal effects with improved convergence rates.
A new method tests conditional independence by transforming it into an unconditional problem using transport maps.
problem Testing conditional independence between two random vectors given a third.
method Constructing transport maps to transform conditional independence into unconditional independence, estimating these maps from data using conditional continuous normalizing flow models.
result The proposed method is validated through simulations and real-data analysis, demonstrating practical effectiveness.
Proposes an evolutionary approach to fitting acyclic VAR models.
problem Cycles in multivariate time series systems obscure hierarchical analysis.
method Evolutionary approach to fitting acyclic VAR processes with hierarchical representation.
result Outperforms unconstrained models and captures key structural properties.
A wild bootstrap method for nonparametric hypothesis tests based on kernel distribution embeddings is proposed. This bootstrap method is used to construct provably consistent tests that apply to random processes, for which the naive permutation-based bootstrap fails. It applies to a large group of kernel tests based on…
Proposes PEMI for online selective conformal prediction with asymmetric rules.
problem Challenges of handling asymmetric selection mechanisms in online selective conformal prediction.
method PEMI: permutation-based framework for selective conformal prediction with arbitrary asymmetric selection rules.
result Achieves exact selection-conditional coverage for any asymmetric selection mechanism and any prediction model.
The Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAP) is a well-known permutation-based combinatorial optimization problem with real applications in industrial and logistics environments. Motivated by the challenge that this NP-hard problem represents, it has captured the attention of the optimization community for decades. As a resu…
Dataset of 4500 bicycle designs aids in design analysis and synthesis.
problem Identify gaps in bicycle market and design space, classify bicycles, synthesize new designs.
method Processed dataset, unsupervised dimensionality reduction, supervised classification, machine learning synthesis.
result Identified design parameters and factors influencing bicycle classification.
Consider a noisy linear observation model with an unknown permutation, based on observing y=Π∗Ax∗+w, where x∗∈Rd is an unknown vector, Π∗ is an unknown n×n permutation matrix, and w∈Rn is additive Gaussian noise. We analyze the problem of permutation recovery in a …
Many applications, including rank aggregation and crowd-labeling, can be modeled in terms of a bivariate isotonic matrix with unknown permutations acting on its rows and columns. We consider the problem of estimating such a matrix based on noisy observations of a subset of its entries, and design and analyze a polynomi…
Study examines financial market structure changes during the COVID-19 crash using a novel MI approach.
problem Analyzing nonlinear dependencies among major stocks during market crashes.
method Conditional p-threshold mutual information (MI) and Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) framework.
result Financial networks become more integrated during crashes, with increased periphery vulnerability.
PIVID infers DAG structures from data using variational inference and permutations.
problem Estimating the structure of Bayesian networks from observational data.
method PIVID uses variational inference and continuous relaxations of discrete distributions to infer a distribution over permutations and DAGs.
result PIVID outperforms deterministic and Bayesian approaches in estimating DAG structures from data.
We propose a nonparametric test of independence, termed optHSIC, between a covariate and a right-censored lifetime. Because the presence of censoring creates a challenge in applying the standard permutation-based testing approaches, we use optimal transport to transform the censored dataset into an uncensored one, whil…
To date, testing interactions in high dimensions has been a challenging task. Existing methods often have issues with sensitivity to modeling assumptions and heavily asymptotic nominal p-values. To help alleviate these issues, we propose a permutation-based method for testing marginal interactions with a binary respons…
Max-rank improves multiple testing in conformal prediction.
problem Simultaneous testing of multiple hypotheses in scientific inquiries.
method Introduces max-rank, a novel correction for positive dependencies in simultaneous testing.
result Max-rank efficiently controls family-wise error rate and improves predictive uncertainty estimates.
This paper shows feature importance remains valid even in low-performing models.
problem Feature importance validity in low-performing machine learning models for biomedical data.
method Experiments with synthetic and real biomedical datasets to compare feature rank stability under different data reductions.
result Feature importance can be maintained even at low performance levels if data size is adequate.
Sharp analysis of out-of-distribution error in overparameterized models with importance weights.
problem Understanding and quantifying the degradation of performance in overparameterized models when faced with underrepresented data.
method Sharp analysis of an overparameterized Gaussian mixture model with spurious features and cost-sensitive interpolating solutions incorporating importance weights.
result Characterization of a novel tradeoff between worst-case robustness and average accuracy as a function of importance weight magnitude.
Improves A/B testing power using a two-armed bandit framework.
problem Comparing outcomes under a new policy to a control.
method Doubly robust estimation, two-armed bandit framework, permutation-based method.
result Superior performance in A/B testing compared to existing methods.
Transformers simplify modeling of small longitudinal cohort data by reducing parameters and incorporating attention mechanisms.
problem Challenges in modeling longitudinal cohort data due to complex temporal dependencies and large dataset requirements.
method Simplified transformer architecture with attention mechanism, autoregressive model, and kernel-based temporal decay.
result The approach recovers contextual dependencies even with small datasets, identifying temporal patterns in stress and mental health.
New method aggregates GDS analyses of randomly selected interaction models to identify important factors in screening experiments.
problem Erroneous conclusions from main-effects models in screening experiments.
method Gauss-Dantzig Selector Aggregation over Random Models (GDS-ARM).
result Identifies important factors by aggregating GDS analyses of randomly selected interaction models.