We win EVA2025 by estimating extreme precipitation events using Peaks Over Thresholds and martingale testing.
problem Estimating the probability of extreme precipitation events with limited data.
method Modeling Peaks Over Thresholds with an exponential distribution and using martingale testing for evaluation.
result Our method outperforms other approaches in estimating extreme precipitation events.
Efficient neural Bayes estimators for censored peaks-over-threshold models improve inference speed and accuracy.
problem Computational burden in inference with spatial extremal dependence models due to intractable or censored likelihoods.
method Developed neural Bayes estimators using data augmentation techniques to encode censoring information.
result Significant gains in computational and statistical efficiency compared to traditional methods.
Finite-time queue peaks in stochastic networks have logarithmic scaling after geometric thresholds.
problem Queue peak laws in stochastic networks with geometric thresholds.
method Self-normalization mechanism
result Logarithmic scaling of queue peaks after geometric thresholds.
New method corrects bias in CVaR estimation for extreme risks.
problem Limited data above VaR leads to poor CVaR estimation.
method Bias-corrected peaks-over-threshold (POT) estimation using GPD.
result Asymptotically unbiased CVaR estimator with lower threshold.
Based on the daily data of American and Chinese stock markets, the dynamic behavior of a financial network with static and dynamic thresholds is investigated. Compared with the static threshold, the dynamic threshold suppresses the large fluctuation induced by the cross-correlation of individual stock prices, and leads…
Improved estimation of hedge fund tail risks using a novel model.
problem Estimation inefficiencies and need for manual threshold selection in extreme value regression models.
method Extended tail regression model with automatic threshold selection and artificial censoring.
result Significant link between tail risks and factors like equity momentum and financial stability index.
Quantile gradient boosted trees outperform other models in predicting NO2 concentration distributions.
problem Forecasting high NO2 concentration episodes for effective air quality management.
method Compared 10 probabilistic forecasting models for NO2 concentration prediction.
result Quantile gradient boosted trees model outperformed others in predicting NO2 concentration distributions.
The paper explains two distinct peaks in generalization error for neural networks and simpler models, each governed by different factors.
problem Understanding the peaks in generalization error for neural networks and simpler models.
method Analysis of random feature models and comparison with numerical experiments involving deep neural networks.
result The peaks at N=P and N=D are distinct and governed by different factors (noise sensitivity vs. initialization noise). SPADE improves demand forecasting accuracy by 4.5% for post-promotion periods.
problem Overreacting to peak events in demand forecasting leads to biased forecasts.
method SPADE splits forecasting into two tasks: one for peak events and another for post-peak events, using masked convolution filters and a specialized Peak Attention module.
result Overall PPE improvement of 4.5%, 30% improvement for most affected forecasts after promotions and holidays, and 3.9% improvement in PE accuracy.
Estimates sub-Gaussian parameter with consistent and optimal rates.
problem Estimating sub-Gaussian parameter from random variables.
method Constrained maximization of empirical weighted cumulant generating function.
result Root-n rate estimator is consistent and optimal under certain conditions.
Study models extreme skew surges along French Atlantic coast.
problem Appropriate modelling of extreme skew surges for coastal risk management.
method Peak-over-threshold framework, multivariate generalized Pareto distribution, extreme regression framework.
result Reconstructed historical skew surge time series at stations with limited data.
The paper shows how the generalization curve can have multiple peaks, influenced by data and learning algorithm biases.
problem Understanding the generalization behavior of linear regression models under varying parameterizations.
method Analyzes generalization loss in linear regression models with varying parameterizations, both under- and over-parameterized.
result The generalization curve can have an arbitrary number of peaks, and their locations can be controlled.
Study examines local extrema and crossing statistics in financial markets.
problem Understanding local extrema and crossing statistics in financial markets.
method Excursion set theory, numerical computation, theoretical prediction, clustering of geometrical measures, cross-correlation, Singular Value Decomposition.
result Excursion sets reveal statistical coherency and sensitivity to crises in financial markets.
Traditionally in regression one minimizes the number of fitting parameters or uses smoothing/regularization to trade training (TE) and generalization error (GE). Driving TE to zero by increasing fitting degrees of freedom (dof) is expected to increase GE. However modern big-data approaches, including deep nets, seem to…
The personal income distribution (PID) above the Pareto threshold is studied and modeled. A microeconomic model is proposed to simulate the PID and its evolution below and above the Pareto income threshold. The model balances processes of income production and dissipation for any person above 15 years of age. The model…
Improved peak detection in ChIP-seq data reduces over-dispersion.
problem Over-dispersion in ChIP-seq data reduces peak detection accuracy.
method Supervised segmentation models with alternative noise assumptions.
result Improved peak detection accuracy compared to natural assumptions.
As one type of efficient unsupervised learning methods, clustering algorithms have been widely used in data mining and knowledge discovery with noticeable advantages. However, clustering algorithms based on density peak have limited clustering effect on data with varying density distribution (VDD), equilibrium distribu…
Bayesian Quadrature improves ensembling for neural networks with dispersed likelihood peaks.
problem Ensembling neural networks struggles with dispersed, narrow peaks in likelihood surfaces.
method Uses Bayesian Quadrature to construct weighted ensembles of architectures.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in test likelihood, accuracy, and expected calibration error.
Bayesian framework integrates spectral deconvolution with expert reasoning for robust peak estimation.
problem Challenges in extracting meaningful peaks from noisy or complex spectra.
method Bayesian spectral deconvolution coupled with a physical-property regression layer.
result Recovery of weak peaks in poly(lactic acid) IR spectra related to degradation rates.
Power spectrum densities for the number of tick quotes per minute (market activity) on three currency markets (USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and JPY/EUR) for periods from January 1999 to December 2000 are analyzed. We find some peaks on the power spectrum densities at a few minutes. We develop the double-threshold agent model and …
Study optimal consumption for loss-averse agents considering past spending peaks.
problem Optimal consumption for loss-averse agents with reference to past spending maximum.
method Adopted S-shaped utility, concave envelope, HJB variational inequality, dual transform, and smooth-fit conditions.
result Obtained piecewise closed-form solutions for optimal consumption and investment control.
Model captures asymmetric extreme events in financial returns.
problem Capturing asymmetric extreme events in financial returns.
method Two-tailed peak-over-threshold Hawkes model.
result Extreme losses contribute twice as much as gains but decay more quickly.
Study optimal consumption with drawdown limits over a fixed time frame.
problem Maximizing utility with consumption limits during a fixed period.
method Extended utility maximization problem with drawdown constraint, using PDE arguments and dual transform.
result Existence and uniqueness of classical solution to HJB variational inequality, with explicit free boundaries.
A robust method for decomposing spectral peaks robust to distortion and interference.
problem Decomposing spectral peaks in the presence of distortion and interference.
method Optimizing a nonparametric approach using pseudo-symmetric functions with nonincreasing behavior.
result Decomposed spectral peaks show pseudo-orthogonal behavior and power preserving equality.
Study analyzes cryptocurrency pump-and-dump dynamics using minute-level data.
problem Identifying and quantifying insider trading in cryptocurrency markets.
method Algorithmic identification of insider volume spikes, conservative profit bounds calculation, social-media verification.
result Median returns above 100%, upper-quartile returns exceeding 2000% for insider profits.
Improved Hawkes model forecasts extreme financial returns more accurately.
problem Forecasting extreme tail events in financial log-returns.
method 2T-POT Hawkes model with multiple exceedance thresholds.
result 2T-POT Hawkes model outperforms GARCH-EVT model in risk forecasting.
Lower bound proves ridgeless regression performs poorly near interpolation threshold.
problem Proving performance of ridgeless regression near interpolation threshold.
method Distribution-independent lower bound for mean squared error in noisy ridgeless linear regression.
result Lower bound implies ridgeless regression performs poorly near interpolation threshold.
New model predicts financial tail events using RIA-EVT-Copula.
problem Predicting financial tail events for risk management.
method RIA-EVT-Copula framework combining POT, RIA, and copulas.
result Improved accuracy in predicting financial extremes.
Developed a new thresholding method that connects soft and hard thresholding.
problem Connecting soft and hard thresholding methods in data analysis.
method Scaled soft thresholding method with empirical scaling values.
result Found two sources of over-fitting in the scaled soft thresholding method.
We find empirically a characteristic sharp peak-flat trough pattern in a large set of commodity prices. We argue that the sharp peak structure reflects an endogenous inter-market organization, and that peaks may be seen as local ``singularities'' resulting from imitation and herding. These findings impose a novel strin…
Deep learning methods operate in regimes that defy the traditional statistical mindset. Neural network architectures often contain more parameters than training samples, and are so rich that they can interpolate the observed labels, even if the latter are replaced by pure noise. Despite their huge complexity, the same …
Model shows loss curve with two distinct exponents due to sparse activations.
problem Sparse activations impact neural network scaling laws.
method Introduced a model for neural scaling laws under sparse activations, derived asymptotic population loss, and analyzed gradient-descent dynamics.
result Loss curve exhibits double-descent peak near interpolation threshold with two distinct scaling exponents.
Study on generalisation in random feature learning and hidden manifold models.
problem Generalisation in high-dimensional learning problems.
method Replica method from statistical physics for asymptotic generalisation performance.
result Closed-form expression for generalisation performance in various high-dimensional settings.
Joint peak detection is a central problem when comparing samples in genomic data analysis, but current algorithms for this task are unsupervised and limited to at most 2 sample types. We propose PeakSegJoint, a new constrained maximum likelihood segmentation model for any number of sample types. To select the number of…
Mass spectrometry (MS) is an important technique for chemical profiling which calculates for a sample a high dimensional histogram-like spectrum. A crucial step of MS data processing is the peak picking which selects peaks containing information about molecules with high concentrations which are of interest in an MS in…
Study on-chain peak shaving to reduce Ethereum transaction costs.
problem Reducing transaction costs in blockchain networks, especially during congested periods.
method Analyzing transaction-level data from multiple firms across various industries to understand scheduling responses and cost management strategies.
result Firms' scheduling responses to congestion vary, leading to different fee savings and residual costs.
The heuristic identification of peaks from noisy complex spectra often leads to misunderstanding of the physical and chemical properties of matter. In this paper, we propose a framework based on Bayesian inference, which enables us to separate multipeak spectra into single peaks statistically and consists of two steps.…
Develop gradient boosting for estimating covariate-dependent GP distributions in insurance.
problem Estimating covariate-dependent Generalized Pareto distributions in insurance.
method Developing a statistical learning theory for gradient boosting.
result Deriving non-asymptotic error bounds for the boosting estimator.
Novel graph-based method detects R-peaks in noisy ECG signals without preprocessing.
problem Detecting R-peaks in noisy ECG signals for real-time analysis.
method Graph-constrained Changepoint Detection (GCCD) approach.
result GCCD achieves high sensitivity, positive predictivity, and low detection error rate.
This study constructs an integrated early warning system (EWS) that identifies and predicts stock market turbulence. Based on switching ARCH (SWARCH) filtering probabilities of the high volatility regime, the proposed EWS first classifies stock market crises according to an indicator function with thresholds dynamicall…
Develops statistical framework for analyzing functional data extremes.
problem Analyzing extremes of functional data in Hilbert spaces.
method Regular variation in Hilbert spaces, Peaks-Over-Threshold framework, functional PCA.
result Proposes a dimension reduction method for functional extreme observations.
We present a detailed bubble analysis of the Bitcoin to US Dollar price dynamics from January 2012 to February 2018. We introduce a robust automatic peak detection method that classifies price time series into periods of uninterrupted market growth (drawups) and regimes of uninterrupted market decrease (drawdowns). In …
FLOPART solves peak detection by creating accurate train and test set predictions.
problem Correctly detecting peaks in sequential data.
method Dynamic programming changepoint algorithm with zero train label errors.
result FLOPART provides highly accurate predictions on both train and test sets.
PEAKS selects key training examples incrementally based on prediction error and kernel similarity.
problem Dynamic data selection in deep learning models.
method Prediction Error Anchored by Kernel Similarity (PEAKS) for incremental data selection.
result PEAKS outperforms existing selection strategies and yields better performance returns as training data size grows.
PEAK tests means of multiple data streams with sequential betting.
problem Testing means of multiple data streams with nonparametric methods.
method Sequential, nonparametric testing using a betting scheme.
result PEAK provides up to 85% reduction in samples for stopping.
Deep Learning is applied to energy markets to predict extreme loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday system constraints. We propose deep spatio-temporal models and extreme value theo…
Data analysis in high-dimensional spaces aims at obtaining a synthetic description of a data set, revealing its main structure and its salient features. We here introduce an approach providing this description in the form of a topography of the data, namely a human-readable chart of the probability density from which t…
Least squares regression shows unexpected double descent in under-parameterized models.
problem Understanding the generalization of under-parameterized models in regression.
method Analyzing the spectrum and eigenvectors of the sample covariance matrix.
result Least squares regression can exhibit a peak in generalization in the under-parameterized regime, contrary to previous explanations.