Paper improves neural ODEs for forecasting non-Markovian processes.
problem Forecasting irregularly observed time series with incomplete data.
method Path-dependent Neural Jump ODEs with signature transform.
result Path-dependent NJ-ODE outperforms original framework in non-Markovian data.
Neural Jump ODEs model Itô processes without adversarial training.
problem Generating samples from Itô processes with irregular data.
method Neural Jump ODEs framework for drift and diffusion approximation.
result NJODEs can recover true parameters of Itô processes in the limit.
Extends PD-NJ-ODE to noisy observations and dependent observation times.
problem Predicting continuous-time stochastic processes with irregular and noisy observations.
method Extends PD-NJ-ODE to handle conditional independence and noisy observations.
result Theoretical guarantees and empirical examples for handling noisy observations and dependent observation times.
Enhanced model predicts chaotic systems with improved long-term accuracy.
problem Learning chaotic systems and long-term predictions from incomplete data.
method Path-dependent Neural Jump ODE (PD-NJ-ODE) model for online prediction.
result The model matches true chaotic system dynamics closely and improves long-term predictions.
Neural Jump ODEs improve online filtering and classification with robust performance.
problem Online filtering and classification in settings with irregular and partial observations.
method Modeling conditional expectation using Neural Jump ODEs, with theoretical convergence guarantees.
result Demonstrated superior performance over classical methods, especially in complex scenarios.
Neural Jump ODE improves continuous-time prediction and filtering of irregularly sampled time series.
problem Theoretical guarantees for continuous-time prediction and filtering of irregularly observed time series.
method Introducing Neural Jump ODE (NJ-ODE) that models conditional expectation between observations with neural ODEs and jumps.
result Theoretical guarantees for the L2-optimal prediction are provided, showing convergence of model output to optimal prediction. The paper predicts cryptocurrency prices using a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation.
problem Forecasting cryptocurrency prices with volatility and jumps.
method Merton's jump diffusion model with machine learning, traditional, and statistical methods.
result Introduced a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation for cryptocurrency price prediction.
Cubic spline smoothing improves interpolation between irregularly sampled data.
problem Interpolation discontinuity in recurrent neural networks for irregularly sampled sequences.
method Cubic spline smoothing compensation module trained end-to-end with ODE-RNN.
result Improves interpolation between irregularly sampled data points.
New neural method for inferring Markov jump processes.
problem Inference in Markov jump processes is challenging.
method Variational inference using neural ODEs and backpropagation.
result Trains neural representations of data to approximate process rates.
Extends nonlinear filtering to predictable jump times.
problem Filtering with jumps in both signal and observation, especially when jump times are known.
method Derive Kushner-Stratonovich and Zakai equations for predictable discontinuities.
result Extends classical nonlinear filtering results to a setting with predictable discontinuities.
Investigates optimal portfolio selection with regime-switching-induced stock price shocks.
problem Mean-variance portfolio selection with regime-switching and stock price jumps.
method Modeling regime-switching and stock price jumps, deriving optimal portfolio strategy and efficient frontier using ODEs.
result Added complexity due to regime-switching-induced stock price shocks, leading to nonlinear ODEs.
This paper stidies the first passage times to constant boundaries for mixed-exponential jump diffusion processes. Explicit solutions of the Laplace transforms of the distribution of the first passage times, the joint distribution of the first passage times and undershoot (overshoot) are obtained. As applications, we pr…
Paper solves MV portfolio selection in jump-diffusion models with no-shorting constraint.
problem Mean-variance portfolio selection in jump-diffusion model with no-shorting constraint.
method Reduces problem to LQ control and finding a maximal point of a function, constructs viscosity solution.
result Explicit viscosity solution to Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, optimal controls derived.
The existing literature provides evidence that limit order book data can be used to predict short-term price movements in stock markets. This paper proposes a new neural network architecture for predicting return jump arrivals in equity markets with high-frequency limit order book data. This new architecture, based on …
The paper proves an equilibrium in a limited stock market participation model with power utilities.
problem Existence of an equilibrium in a model with limited stock market participation and power utilities.
method Proves existence and uniqueness of a solution to a singular and path-dependent Riccati-type ODE.
result Proves existence of a Radner equilibrium with homogenous power-utility investors.
Develops new Markov processes with switching rates and past dependence.
problem Modeling processes with dynamic switching rates and path dependence.
method Introduces a new class of Markov jump processes with regime switching and path dependence. Derives distributional properties and maximum likelihood estimates.
result Maximum likelihood estimates of the process parameters are derived in closed form and have asymptotic normality.
This work provides a semi-analytic approximation method for decoupled forwardbackward SDEs (FBSDEs) with jumps. In particular, we construct an asymptotic expansion method for FBSDEs driven by the random Poisson measures with σ-finite compensators as well as the standard Brownian motions around the small-variance limit …
PDGM uses neural nets to solve complex financial equations.
problem Solving path-dependent partial differential equations (PPDEs)
method Generalized Deep Galerkin Method (PDGM) combining feed-forward and LSTM architectures
result PDGM successfully models solutions to various PPDEs, including financial derivatives.
This study shows why training Neural ODEs is hard and proposes a new method.
problem Training Neural ODEs is challenging, especially in practice.
method Proposed a new stabilization method and provided an analytical convergence analysis.
result Insights and techniques for researchers starting work on Neural ODEs.
Develops a numerical scheme for solving path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs.
problem Solving path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs numerically.
method Picard iteration method for FBSDEs, concentration inequality for estimator, supervised learning with neural networks for PDEs.
result Proves convergence and rate of convergence for the Picard iteration method.
New SDEs from affine and polynomial perspectives for path-dependent processes.
problem Characterizing path-dependent stochastic processes.
method Affine and polynomial processes, signature SDEs, Fourier-Laplace transform, Riccati and linear ODEs.
result Explicit formulas for the Fourier-Laplace transform and expected values of entire functions of signature processes.
CTM improves diffusion model sampling quality with efficient ODE traversal.
problem Lack of natural trade-off between sample quality and speed in consistency models.
method CTM trains a neural network to output scores and traverse ODE trajectories efficiently.
result CTM achieves state-of-the-art FIDs and improves sample quality with increased computational budget.
Quantum computer method for pricing lookback options with jumps.
problem Pricing lookback options with discrete monitoring and jump conditions.
method Variational Quantum Imaginary Time Evolution (VarQITE) method to solve non-Hermitian Schrodinger equation.
result Quantum algorithm can handle jump conditions in lookback options pricing.
Model-free approach to hedge path-dependent options using min-max optimization.
problem Hedging path-dependent options with maturity T using a static portfolio of vanilla options.
method Model-free approach based on primal-dual Martingale Optimal Transport (MOT) problem, solving a min-max optimization problem.
result Provides theoretical bounds on hedging error at maturity T.
A new jump diffusion regime-switching model is introduced, which allows for linking jumps in asset prices with regime changes. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the risk-sensitive asset management criterion maximisation problem in this setting. We provide an ODE for the optimal value function, wh…
We show that Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) learn representations that preserve the topology of the input space and prove that this implies the existence of functions Neural ODEs cannot represent. To address these limitations, we introduce Augmented Neural ODEs which, in addition to being more expressive…
A fast Monte Carlo method for additive processes and option pricing.
problem Efficiently pricing path-dependent options with additive processes.
method Developed a fast Monte Carlo scheme for additive processes, analyzing and reducing numerical error sources.
result Shows significant reduction in error (1 bp or below) for pricing path-dependent options.
This paper uses ODE to improve RNN models for time series data.
problem Improving RNN models for irregularly sampled time series data.
method Extending RNNs with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs).
result New ODE-based RNN models reduce training and evaluation time.
Constructs supermartingale couplings with full marginals constraints.
problem Optimal transport for supermartingale couplings with multiple marginals.
method Markovian iteration of one-period optimal supermartingale couplings.
result Explicit construction of supermartingale processes solving optimal transport problem.
This paper explores normalization in neural ODEs, achieving high accuracy in CIFAR-10.
problem Understanding the role of normalization in neural ODEs.
method Investigated different normalization techniques and their impact on neural ODEs performance.
result Achieved 93% accuracy in CIFAR-10 classification task.
Faster training of neural ODEs using Gauß-Legendre quadrature.
problem Training neural ODEs is slow due to solving ODEs numerically.
method Use Gauß-Legendre quadrature to solve integrals faster than ODE-based methods.
result Faster training of neural ODEs, especially for large models.
Enhanced Neural ODEs outperform traditional models in image classification and video prediction.
problem Efficiently modeling time-varying dynamics in neural networks.
method Proposed a novel family of non-autonomous Neural ODEs with time-varying weights.
result Outperformed previous Neural ODE variants in speed and representational capacity.
Improved neural-ODE for faster convergence and stability.
problem Stability, consistency, and convergence issues in neural-ODE solvers.
method Proposed a first-order Nesterov's accelerated gradient (NAG) based ODE-solver.
result Efficacy demonstrated in three tasks: supervised classification, density estimation, and time-series modelling.
New method sparsifies hybrid neural ODEs for better performance and stability.
problem Excessive latent states and interactions from mechanistic models lead to training inefficiency and over-fitting.
method Automatic state selection and structure optimization combining domain-informed graph modifications with data-driven regularization.
result Improved predictive performance and robustness with desired sparsity.
Generalization bounds derived for neural ODEs and deep residual networks.
problem Understanding the generalization capability of neural ODEs and deep residual networks.
method Lipschitz-based argument and analogy with deep residual networks.
result A generalization bound involving the magnitude of weight matrix differences.
New method trains neural ODEs faster with fewer layers.
problem Training neural ODEs on large datasets is computationally expensive.
method Combines optimal transport and stability regularizations.
result Significant reductions in training time with no performance loss.
Deep signature algorithm for pricing path-dependent options.
problem Pricing path-dependent options with complex payoff functions.
method Extended backward scheme for state-dependent FBSDEs with reflections, incorporating signature layer for path-dependent FBSDEs.
result Convergence analysis of the algorithm with explicit dependence on truncation order and neural network approximation errors.
We develop a new Monte Carlo variance reduction method to estimate the expectation of two commonly encountered path-dependent functionals: first-passage times and occupation times of sets. The method is based on a recursive approximation of the first-passage time probability and expected occupation time of sets of a Le…
New ODE solvers improve training efficiency and accuracy.
problem Training Neural ODEs requires efficient and accurate gradient calculation.
method Presented algebraically reversible ODE solvers that are time and memory efficient, calculate exact gradients, and are numerically stable.
result Reversible solvers strictly improve upon previous architectures in efficiency and accuracy.
Neural ODEs' performance varies with numerical method, requiring adaptive step size control.
problem Neural ODEs' performance depends on the numerical method used during training.
method Proposes an adaptive step size control algorithm to ensure a valid ODE without increasing computational cost.
result Valid Neural ODEs require careful numerical method selection and step size adaptation.
Global approximation for piecewise linear paths via signatures.
problem Global approximation theorems for piecewise linear paths.
method Using signatures of piecewise linear paths and their density in Lp-norms. result Linear functionals of signatures are dense in Lp-norms under an integrability condition. A new interpolation method speeds up neural ODE training.
problem Efficiently approximating gradients in neural ODEs.
method Interpolation-based technique to approximate gradients.
result Our method trains neural ODEs faster than the reverse dynamic method.
Improves generative models by adding jump-diffusion noise.
problem Limited performance of diffusion models in generating samples from unknown distributions.
method Generalizes diffusion processes to include jump-diffusion noise, deriving closed-form generalized score functions.
result Jump-diffusion models outperform Gaussian models in specific parameter regimes.
Neural jump model improves option pricing accuracy.
problem Jump risk in option pricing.
method Neural jump stochastic differential equation model with Gumbel-Softmax gradient learning.
result Neural jump components significantly improve option pricing accuracy.
Neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have been attracting increasing attention in various research domains recently. There have been some works studying optimization issues and approximation capabilities of neural ODEs, but their robustness is still yet unclear. In this work, we fill this important gap by expl…
Stochastic neural ODEs outperform deterministic ones on image classification tasks.
problem Improving generalization in continuous-time models like neural ODEs.
method Empirical study of stochastically regularized neural ODEs using SDEs.
result Data augmentation negates the benefits of stochastic regularization, making neural ODEs and SDEs nearly equivalent.
Using tools from spectral analysis, singular and regular perturbation theory, we develop a systematic method for analytically computing the approximate price of a derivative-asset. The payoff of the derivative-asset may be path-dependent. Additionally, the process underlying the derivative may exhibit killing (i.e. jum…
A simple regularization technique speeds up training of Neural ODEs.
problem Training Neural ODEs is computationally expensive.
method Randomly sampling the end time of the ODE during training.
result Significantly decreases training time and improves performance.