GER learns particle dynamics from unpaired snapshots using physics-informed GANs.
problem Learning particle dynamics from unpaired snapshots with physics constraints.
method Physics-informed generative model to fit particle ensemble distributions.
result Inferred dynamics of particle ensembles governed by SODEs up to 100 dimensions.
Bayesian inference for neural networks improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
method Ensemble Kalman filter extensions and interacting particle systems.
result Effective methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
Proposes optimizing neural network ensemble diversity in feature space.
problem Improving diversity in neural network ensembles while maintaining performance.
method Optimizes particles in the feature space of a specific intermediate layer.
result Significantly outperforms Deep Ensembles on various metrics.
Persistent sampling improves SMC efficiency by retaining and reusing particles.
problem High computational costs and particle impoverishment in SMC.
method Persistent sampling (PS) retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations, using multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions.
result PS achieves more accurate posterior approximations and lower variance in marginal likelihood estimates without additional likelihood evaluations.
EnKO combines VI and EnKF for efficient latent dynamics inference.
problem Particle degeneracy and biased gradient estimators in SMC-based methods.
method EnKO: hybrid of VI and EnKF.
result EnKO outperforms SMC-based methods in predictive ability and particle efficiency.
Enhances optimization and sampling methods using ensemble-based gradient inference.
problem Improving ensemble-based methods for optimization and sampling.
method Ensemble-based gradient inference (EGI) to extract higher-order derivatives from particle ensembles.
result Augmented algorithms outperform gradient-free variants, especially in multimodal and non-Gaussian settings.
A new ensemble filter uses transport maps and MMD optimization for high-dimensional data assimilation.
problem High-dimensional data assimilation challenges in ensemble filtering.
method Optimized Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) for transport map construction.
result Significant improvement in robustness and posterior approximation.
FoRDE uses input gradients to improve neural network ensembles.
problem Improving neural network ensembles for robustness and accuracy.
method Proposes FoRDE, an ensemble learning method based on ParVI, which repels function space by input gradients.
result FoRDE significantly outperforms DEs and other ensemble methods in accuracy and calibration.
Particle-based variational inference offers a flexible way of approximating complex posterior distributions with a set of particles. In this paper we introduce a new particle-based variational inference method based on the theory of semi-discrete optimal transport. Instead of minimizing the KL divergence between the po…
Improved PoC for MFLD reduces approximation error and provides model ensemble guarantees.
problem Quantifying optimization complexity in mean-field Langevin dynamics.
method Refined defective log-Sobolev inequality for neural network training.
result Improved PoC result with reduced approximation error and theoretical model ensemble guarantees.
The paper connects neural network ensembles to Bayesian inference using variational methods.
problem Explaining the behavior of ensemble methods in neural networks.
method Deriving conditions for ensemble optimization to reduce divergence to the posterior distribution.
result Ensemble methods can be a valid alternative to approximate Bayesian inference.
ATPF combines PF and EnKF for better inference in complex systems.
problem Weight degeneracy in PF and approximation errors in EnKF.
method Adversarial learning to improve posterior matching and incorporate kernel methods for optimization.
result ATPF provides theoretical guarantees and practical advantages over PF and EnKF.
Enhanced ensemble filters use machine learning to improve accuracy in filtering models.
problem Accuracy limitations of traditional ensemble Kalman filters.
method Introduces a measure neural mapping (MNM) to map joint predicted state and observation to updated state estimates.
result Superior root-mean-square-error performance compared to leading methods in filtering models.
New algorithms improve Langevin Monte Carlo efficiency.
problem High computational cost of classical Langevin Monte Carlo.
method Integrates ensemble feature into LMC, constraining gradient approximations.
result Constrained Ensemble Langevin Monte Carlo reduces gradient computation.
Stein variational neural network ensembles improve diversity and uncertainty estimation.
problem Lack of proper Bayesian justification and diversity guarantees in deep neural network ensembles.
method Particle-based inference methods, specifically Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), operating in weight space, function space, and hybrid settings.
result SVGD methods improve diversity and uncertainty estimation, approaching the true Bayesian posterior more closely.
A new method estimates time-varying parameters in earth system models using offline and online data assimilation.
problem Estimating time-varying parameters in complex earth system models.
method Hybrid Offline Online Parameter Estimation with Particle Filtering (HOOPE-PF)
result HOOPE-PF outperforms existing methods, especially with small ensemble sizes.
Paper analyzes ensemble Kalman updates for effective dimension and localization.
problem Why small ensemble sizes work well in inverse problems and data assimilation.
method Non-asymptotic analysis of ensemble Kalman updates, focusing on effective dimension and localization.
result Rigorously explains why a small ensemble size is sufficient when prior covariance has moderate effective dimension.
EnSF improves accuracy in tracking high-dimensional nonlinear systems.
problem Low accuracy in high-dimensional, nonlinear filtering problems.
method Score-based diffusion model, mini-batch Monte Carlo estimator.
result EnSF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in tracking high-dimensional systems.
Bayesian inference reconstructs external potentials in DFT for many-particle systems.
problem Reconstructing external potentials in classical density-functional theory (DFT) for many-particle systems.
method Combines Bayesian inference with classical DFT to probabilistically reconstruct external potentials.
result Accurately infers external potentials and density profiles with uncertainty quantification.
Reflective Hamiltonian Monte Carlo struggles with high-dimensional sampling.
problem Slow mixing in reflective Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with inexact reflections.
method Quantifying instantaneous non-uniformity with Sinkhorn divergence; analyzing particle motion in spheres and cubes; constructing low-dimensional toy models.
result Particles spontaneously unmix, leading to resonances in particle density.
Events in the world may be caused by other, unobserved events. We consider sequences of events in continuous time. Given a probability model of complete sequences, we propose particle smoothing---a form of sequential importance sampling---to impute the missing events in an incomplete sequence. We develop a trainable fa…
Paper tackles noisy and expensive likelihoods in complex models.
problem Calibrating parameters in complex models with noisy and expensive evaluations.
method Ensemble Kalman methods and Langevin-based methods for inverse problems.
result Ensemble Kalman methods perform well in noisy conditions, while Langevin methods are adversely affected.
Recently, some works have suggested methods to combine variational probabilistic inference with Monte Carlo sampling. One promising approach is via local optimal transport. In this approach, a gradient steepest descent method based on local optimal transport principles is formulated to transform deterministically point…
Study symmetry breaking in quantum mechanics to understand many-body physics.
problem Understanding many-body physics from quantum mechanics.
method Analyzing potentials with unstable critical points and local minima.
result Emergence of many-body physics from spontaneous symmetry breaking.
Paper proposes an ensemble-based AIS for multimodal sampling.
problem Sampling from multimodal distributions is challenging.
method Combines AIS with population-based Monte Carlo methods.
result Improves efficiency through ensemble interaction.
New method uses diffusion models for inverse problems without approximations.
problem Solving complex inverse problems in high dimensions.
method Ensemble-based algorithm using diffusion models without approximations.
result Empirically validated method gives more accurate reconstructions.
Unified theory linking Bayesian and ensemble methods in deep learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
method Reformulating optimisation as convex optimisation in probability measures, studying Wasserstein gradient flows.
result Unified theory explaining success of deep ensembles over variational inference.
Paper improves particle variational inference by optimizing generalization error bound.
problem Improving the diversity of models in particle variational inference to enhance generalization.
method Develops a new second-order Jensen inequality with a repulsion term based on the loss function, leading to a tighter generalization error bound.
result The proposed PVI optimizes the generalization error bound directly, improving performance compared to existing methods.
Deep density methods improve filtering in high-dimensional systems.
problem Nonlinear filtering in high-dimensional systems.
method Two deep density methods based on Feynman-Kac formulas and neural networks.
result Logarithmic deep backward stochastic differential equation filter outperforms classical methods in high dimensions.
Ensemble learning is a mainstay in modern data science practice. Conventional ensemble algorithms assigns to base models a set of deterministic, constant model weights that (1) do not fully account for variations in base model accuracy across subgroups, nor (2) provide uncertainty estimates for the ensemble prediction,…
EPINET improves neural networks with less computation.
problem Efficiently estimating uncertainty in neural networks.
method Introduces EPINET architecture that augments any neural network with minimal additional training.
result EPINET outperforms large ensembles with significantly less computation.
Controlled interacting particle systems such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the feedback particle filter (FPF) are numerical algorithms to approximate the solution of the nonlinear filtering problem in continuous time. The distinguishing feature of these algorithms is that the Bayesian update step is implemen…
AD-EnKFs use machine learning to improve data assimilation in high-dimensional systems.
problem Data assimilation in high-dimensional, unknown dynamics systems.
method Auto-differentiable ensemble Kalman filters blending machine learning and ensemble Kalman filters.
result AD-EnKFs outperform existing methods in the Lorenz-96 model.
EnEMF uses Epanechnikov kernel for high-dimensional filtering, improving accuracy and robustness.
problem Suboptimal Gaussian mixture kernel density estimates in high-dimensional settings.
method Ensemble Epanechnikov mixture filter (EnEMF) using optimal Epanechnikov kernel.
result EnEMF reduces error per particle on high-dimensional systems like Lorenz '96.
IBPF algorithm tackles high-dimensional parameter learning for complex systems.
problem Learning high-dimensional parameters in complex, partially observed, and nonlinear systems.
method Iterated Block Particle Filter (IBPF) for graphical state space models.
result IBPF algorithm consistently beats the curse of dimensionality across various experiments.
New model estimates Gibbs free energies using machine learning and isobaric-isothermal flows.
problem Estimating Gibbs free energies for complex systems.
method Normalizing flows trained to sample isobaric-isothermal ensemble.
result Excellent agreement with established baselines for water phases.
A method for inferring motility models and heterogeneity from particle trajectories.
problem Understanding motility patterns from discrete trajectory data of biological agents.
method Maximum likelihood approach for second-order Langevin models with population heterogeneity.
result The proposed method outperforms alternative approaches for short trajectories.
Stein transport improves Bayesian inference with faster convergence and reduced variance.
problem Efficiently approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian inference.
method A novel Bayesian inference method using Stein transport, which pushes particles along a curve of tempered distributions.
result Stein transport reaches posterior approximations faster and more accurately than Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD).
EnFF uses flows to speed up DA in high dimensions.
problem Efficiently assimilating noisy data in high-dimensional systems.
method Flow Matching (FM) for training-free, scalable data assimilation.
result EnFF accelerates DA with improved cost-accuracy tradeoffs and scalability.
Model tracks structural changes in Brownian particle configurations on a sphere.
problem Tracking structural changes in Brownian particle configurations on a sphere.
method Introduces Frustrated Distance Matrix (FDM) model for dynamic distance matrices on S^2.
result Preserves static BBS template with dynamics as redistributed spectral mass.
Gradient-free framework for Bayesian experimental design in complex systems.
problem Optimal experimental design in systems where gradient information is unavailable.
method Combines EKI and ALDI for optimization and sampling, with approximations for scalable utility estimation.
result Demonstrates robust, accurate, and efficient experimental design in various complex systems.
Estimates network structure and interaction rules from multiple agent trajectories.
problem Modeling multi-agent systems on networks from data.
method Jointly infers network topology and interaction kernels using non-convex optimization.
result ORALS estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal under coercivity conditions.
The superior performance of ensemble methods with infinite models are well known. Most of these methods are based on optimization problems in infinite-dimensional spaces with some regularization, for instance, boosting methods and convex neural networks use L1-regularization with the non-negative constraint. However…
New method uses EKI for efficient Bayesian inference in high-dimensional problems.
problem Efficient inference for high-dimensional posterior distributions in physics-informed neural networks.
method Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) for high-dimensional posterior inference.
result EKI-based inference provides comparable uncertainty estimates to HMC-based methods but with reduced computational cost.
Researchers develop methods for inference in hierarchical models using neural simulations.
problem Inference in hierarchical models with intractable likelihoods.
method Construct neural estimators for likelihood-ratio or posterior, accounting for hierarchical structure.
result Explicitly accounting for hierarchical structure leads to tighter parameter constraints.
Blade uses diffusion priors to accurately and calibratedly infer complex systems.
problem Derivative-free Bayesian inversion for high-dimensional, nonlinear problems with costly forward models.
method Blade employs an ensemble of interacting particles and diffusion models as priors, querying forward models only through evaluations.
result Blade produces well-calibrated posterior samples that existing methods cannot, improving with more iterations and particles.
SVI and GP surrogates improve calibration of ABMs in epidemiology.
problem Calibrating stochastic ABMs in epidemiology is computationally expensive.
method Stein Variational Inference (SVI) with Gaussian process (GP) surrogates.
result SVI maintains comparable predictive accuracy and calibration effectiveness to MCMC.
Particle identification is one of the core tasks in the data analysis pipeline at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Statistically, this entails the identification of rare signal events buried in immense backgrounds that mimic the properties of the former. In machine learning parlance, particle identification represents …