A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We consider the forecast aggregation problem in repeated settings, where the forecasts are done on a binary event. At each period multiple experts provide forecasts about an event. The goal of the aggregator is to aggregate those forecasts into a subjective accurate forecast. We assume that experts are Bayesian; namely…
We use online convex optimization (OCO) for setpoint tracking with uncertain, flexible loads. We consider full feedback from the loads, bandit feedback, and two intermediate types of feedback: partial bandit where a subset of the loads are individually observed and the rest are observed in aggregate, and Bernoulli feed…
Study optimal policy regret in partially observable Markov games with adaptive opponents.
problem Optimal sequential decision-making in partially observable environments against strategic, adaptive opponents.
method An epoch-based optimistic maximum-likelihood algorithm that selects one policy per epoch using confidence sets built cumulatively from past data.
result Achieves ildeO(T) policy regret for fixed problem parameters, with explicit dependence on horizon, adversary memory, confidence radius, and aggregate Eluder dimension.
Learning nonlinear dynamics from aggregate data is a challenging problem because the full trajectory of each individual is not available, namely, the individual observed at one time may not be observed at the next time point, or the identity of individual is unavailable. This is in sharp contrast to learning dynamics w…
Multidimensional data have become ubiquitous and are frequently encountered in situations where the information is aggregated over multiple data atoms. The aggregation can be over time or other features, such as geographical location. We often have access to multiple aggregated views of the same data, each aggregated i…
We report on results concerning a partially aggregated Stock Flow Consistent (SFC) macroeconomic model in the stationary state where the sectors of banks and firms are aggregated, the sector of households is dis-aggregated, and the probability density function (pdf) of the wealth of households is exogenous, constrained…
We consider a large, homogeneous portfolio of life or disability annuity policies. The policies are assumed to be independent conditional on an external stochastic process representing the economic-demographic environment. Using a conditional law of large numbers, we establish the connection between claims reserving an…
Label ranking aims to learn a mapping from instances to rankings over a finite number of predefined labels. Random forest is a powerful and one of the most successful general-purpose machine learning algorithms of modern times. In this paper, we present a powerful random forest label ranking method which uses random de…
CT-OT Flow estimates continuous-time dynamics from discrete snapshots.
problem Estimating continuous-time dynamics from temporally aggregated snapshots with noisy or uncertain timestamps.
method Two-stage framework: aligning neighboring intervals via partial optimal transport (POT) and reconstructing a continuous-time distribution through temporal kernel smoothing.
result Reduces distributional and trajectory errors compared with existing methods across synthetic and real datasets.
In recent years rank aggregation has received significant attention from the machine learning community. The goal of such a problem is to combine the (partially revealed) preferences over objects of a large population into a single, relatively consistent ordering of those objects. However, in many cases, we might not w…
Paper tackles group robustness with partially labeled data.
problem Learning invariant representations from datasets with spurious correlations.
method Constructs a constraint set and derives a high probability bound for group assignment. Proposes an optimization algorithm for worst-off group assignments.
result Improvements in minority group's performance while preserving overall accuracy.
We consider the predictive problem of supervised ranking, where the task is to rank sets of candidate items returned in response to queries. Although there exist statistical procedures that come with guarantees of consistency in this setting, these procedures require that individuals provide a complete ranking of all i…
Solvency II Directive 2009/138/EC requires an insurance and reinsurance undertakings assessment of a Solvency Capital Requirement by means of the so-called "Standard Formula" or by means of partial or full internal models. Focusing on the first approach, the bottom-up aggregation formula proposed by the regulator permi…
A popular approach of achieving fairness in optimization problems is by constraining the solution space to "fair" solutions, which unfortunately typically reduces solution quality. In practice, the ultimate goal is often an aggregate of sub-goals without a unique or best way of combining them or which is otherwise only…
Multi-view Multi-instance Multi-label Learning(M3L) deals with complex objects encompassing diverse instances, represented with different feature views, and annotated with multiple labels. Existing M3L solutions only partially explore the inter or intra relations between objects (or bags), instances, and labels, which …