A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Pareto's 80/20 rule follows a Gaussian distribution with twice the mean standard deviation.
Understanding the behavior of a trained network and finding explanations for its outputs is important for improving the network's performance and generalization ability, and for ensuring trust in automated systems. Several approaches have previously been proposed to identify and visualize the most important features by…
The 20/60/20 rule improves risk management and portfolio optimization in finance.
Paper finds a method to compute fair risk-sharing rules.
This study provides an independent, outside-in estimate of the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects. Based on a reference class of 216 past, comparable projects, risk of cost overrun was found to be 202% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of an overrun above 202%. Based on a reference clas…
In this paper we develop an Expectation Maximization(EM) algorithm to estimate the parameter of a Yule-Simon distribution. The Yule-Simon distribution exhibits the "rich get richer" effect whereby an 80-20 type of rule tends to dominate. These distributions are ubiquitous in industrial settings. The EM algorithm presen…
This paper improves fraud prevention rule sets in fintech by generating diverse rules and finding Pareto-optimal subsets.
This paper solves aggregation of Pareto optimal models by using Bayesian priors and weighted averaging.
We used convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for automatic sleep stage scoring based on single-channel electroencephalography (EEG) to learn task-specific filters for classification without using prior domain knowledge. We used an openly available dataset from 20 healthy young adults for evaluation and applied 20-fold …
Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval).
New method shows multi-objective bandits are not harder than single-objective ones.
Paper proposes Adaptive Pareto Exploration for identifying Pareto optimal arms in multi-objective scenarios.
The paper tackles fair policy targeting by optimizing allocation rules to minimize unfairness.
SURF steers scalarization weights to uniformly traverse the Pareto front.
Paper proposes PSIPS for identifying Pareto set with correlated objectives.
Oral Disintegrating Tablets (ODTs) is a novel dosage form that can be dissolved on the tongue within 3min or less especially for geriatric and pediatric patients. Current ODT formulation studies usually rely on the personal experience of pharmaceutical experts and trial-and-error in the laboratory, which is inefficient…
Pareto's law states that the distribution of personal income obeys a power-law in the high-income range, and has been supported by international observations. Researchers have proposed models over a century since its discovery. However, the dynamical nature of personal income has been little studied hitherto, mostly du…
Study on optimal fees in hedge funds with first-loss compensation.
MOSS optimizes decision rules for accuracy and stability.
In this study, we applied a stochastic spread pairs trading strategy on the Indian commodity market. The complete set of commodities were taken whose spot price was available for the period of January 1st 2010 to December 31st 2018 including energy, metals and the agricultural commodity sector. Spot data was taken from…
New risk-sharing rules induced by capital allocation principles.
We present an extension of the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to include an additional pricing factor called the "Zipf factor", which describes the diversification risk of the stock market portfolio. Keeping all the dynamical characteristics of a bubble described in the JLS model, the new model provides additiona…
New algorithm reduces regret in online portfolio and quantum state learning.
We model a closed economic system with interactions that generates the features of empirical wealth distribution across all wealth brackets, namely a Gibbsian trend in the lower and middle wealth range and a Pareto trend in the higher range, by simply limiting the an agents' interaction to only agents with nearly the s…
We empirically show the superiority of the equally weighted S\&P 500 portfolio over Sharpe's market capitalization weighted S\&P 500 portfolio. We proceed to consider the MaxMedian rule, a non-proprietary rule designed for the investor who wishes to do his/her own investing on a laptop with the purchase of only 20 stoc…
Attenuation correction is an essential requirement of positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstruction to allow for accurate quantification. However, attenuation correction is particularly challenging for PET-MRI as neither PET nor magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can directly image tissue attenuation properties…
We briefly review results on nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type which describe the evolution of wealth in a simple agents market. The mathematical structure of the underlying kinetic equations allows to use well-known techniques of wide use in kinetic theory of rarefied gases to obtain information on the proc…
It is known that asset exchange models with symmetric interaction between agents show either a Gibbs/log-normal distribution of assets among the agents or condensation of the entire wealth in the hands of a single agent, depending upon the rules of exchange. Here we explore the effects of introducing asymmetry in the i…
Algorithm identifies interpretable subgroups with elevated treatment effects.
We provide an exact solution to the ideal-gas-like models studied in econophysics to understand the microscopic origin of Pareto-law. In these class of models the key ingredient necessary for having a self-organized scale-free steady-state distribution is the trading or collision rule where agents or particles save a d…
The efficient market hypothesis has far-reaching implications for financial trading and market stability. Whether or not cryptocurrencies are informationally efficient has therefore been the subject of intense recent investigation. Here, we use permutation entropy and statistical complexity over sliding time-windows of…
Improved deep hedging with ensemble uncertainty quantification.
Improved forecast accuracy for Knitwear by 20% using adaptive AI/ML model.
ARMS automates fraud detection rules to improve efficiency and accuracy.
Let and an integer. A knot in the three-sphere is said to be a -lens knot if and only if it covers a link in the lens space . In this paper, we use the second coefficient of the HOMFLY polynomial to provide a necessary condition for a knot to be a -lens knot. As an applicat…
This paper studies a continuous-time market where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a targeted terminal mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return. The optimal portfolio of such a problem is called mean-variance efficient à la Markowitz. It is shown that, when the market coefficients a…
New method finds exact Pareto front for MO-MDPs efficiently.
Using a model of wealth distribution where traders are characterized by quenched random saving propensities and trade among themselves by bipartite transactions, we mimic the enhanced rates of trading of the rich by introducing the preferential selection rule using a pair of continuously tunable parameters. The biparti…
This paper considers ideal gas-like models of trading markets, where each agent is identified as a gas molecule that interacts with others trading in elastic or money-conservative collisions. Traditionally, these models introduce different rules of random selection and exchange between pair agents. Unlike these traditi…
A new energy-efficient pruning method for federated learning.
Survival regression method improves log-likelihood scores.
Diversification improves profits for heavy-tailed investments.
In this paper we introduce kinetic equations for the evolution of the probability distribution of two goods among a huge population of agents. The leading idea is to describe the trading of these goods by means of some fundamental rules in price theory, in particular by using Cobb-Douglas utility functions for the bina…
We propose a strategy for approximating Pareto optimal sets based on the global analysis framework proposed by Smale (Dynamical systems, New York, 1973, pp. 531-544). The method highlights and exploits the underlying manifold structure of the Pareto sets, approximating Pareto optima by means of simplicial complexes. Th…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in …
Bayesian neural networks update beliefs with soft evidence, improving accuracy and calibration.
Random variables of the generalized Pareto distribution, can be transformed to that of the Pareto distribution. Explicit expressions exist for the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the Pareto distribution. The performance of the estimation of the shape parameter of generalized Pareto distributed using …
Study evaluates training programs for unemployed in Belgium using machine learning.