This paper identifies critical cases for evaluating PV investment impacts on MV networks efficiently.
problem Challenges in maintaining and controlling voltages in MV distribution networks due to increasing PV generation.
method Clustering MV nodes based on electrical adjacency and time blocks, identifying critical cases for further study.
result A scalable method to time efficiently identify critical cases for PV investment evaluation.
Framework optimizes PV-battery investment timing to maximize value.
problem Optimizing investments in residential PV-battery systems under uncertain market conditions.
method Real options valuation framework with multi-stage compound options, incorporating Monte Carlo simulation.
result Optimal timing of PV-battery investment increases overall value.
In this article, we investigate various properties of the pure virtual braid group PV_3. From its canonical presentation, we obtain a free product decomposition of PV_3. As a consequence, we show that PV_3 is residually torsion free nilpotent, which implies that the set of finite type invariants in the sense of Goussar…
Framework improves PV forecasting by accounting for missing data uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty from missing data in PV power data.
method Combines stochastic multiple imputation with Rubin's rule.
result Improves prediction interval calibration without sacrificing point prediction accuracy.
Deep learning improves PV generation quantile forecasting.
problem Accurate probabilistic forecasting of PV generation.
method Developed an encoder-decoder deep learning model for multi-output quantile PV forecasting.
result The model improves forecast quality and computational efficiency.
Let U be a smooth C-scheme, f:U→A1 a regular function, and X=Crit(f) the critical locus, as a C-subscheme of U. Then one can define the "perverse sheaf of vanishing cycles" PVU,f, a perverse sheaf on X. This paper proves four main results: (a) Suppose Φ:U→U is an iso…
In this paper, we present a method to determine the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from the power measurements of one or more PV systems, located in the same neighborhood. The method is completely unsupervised and is based on a physical model of a PV plant. The precise assessment of solar irradiance is pivotal for …
New method selects critical DER scenarios for distribution grid investment planning.
problem Determining critical DER adoption scenarios for risk assessment in distribution grids.
method Bayesian Optimization framework using Gaussian Process surrogates and Pareto-critical acquisition function.
result Statistical guarantee and significant speed-up over exhaustive search in selecting critical DER scenarios.
Cold-start PV forecasting uses synthetic histories to train time-series foundation models.
problem Cold-start PV forecasting
method Zero-shot pipeline with synthetic histories
result TabPFN-TS achieves the lowest error under Real Feedback strategy
As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally, observed weather data are applied in the solar PV generation forecasting model w…
Deep learning model forecasts PV power production with high accuracy.
problem Accurate forecasting of photovoltaic power production is needed for electricity infrastructure.
method Sequence to sequence model with attention mechanism using weather predictions and historical data.
result The model outperforms existing methods in forecast skill score.
A new learning framework reduces PV-Battery system costs by 3.6%.
problem Optimizing PV-Battery systems for cost savings with accurate forecasts.
method Decision-focused learning framework integrating optimization and prediction.
result Decision-focused method reduces average electricity costs by 3.6%.
Archimedes determined the center of gravity of a parabolic section as follows. For a parabolic section between a parabola and any chord AB on the parabola, let us denote by P the point on the parabola where the tangent is parallel to AB and by V the point where the line through P parallel to the axis of the p…
The study improves solar irradiance forecasts for Chile using machine learning.
problem Accurate short-term PV power forecasts for Chile's Atacama Desert.
method 8-member ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance using WRF model, calibrated with EMOS and DRN.
result Machine learning-based post-processing methods improve forecast accuracy and calibration.
We tackle the PAC-Bayesian Domain Adaptation (DA) problem. This arrives when one desires to learn, from a source distribution, a good weighted majority vote (over a set of classifiers) on a different target distribution. In this context, the disagreement between classifiers is known crucial to control. In non-DA superv…
Effective utilization of photovoltaic (PV) plants requires weather variability robust global solar radiation (GSR) forecasting models. Random weather turbulence phenomena coupled with assumptions of clear sky model as suggested by Hottel pose significant challenges to parametric & non-parametric models in GSR conversio…
PV-RNN model uses predictive coding to predict and recognize data sequences.
problem Addressing variational RNNs' challenges in learning meaningful latent representations and transferring future observations.
method Inspired by predictive coding, PV-RNN dynamically changes latent stochasticity and uses prediction errors for information transfer.
result PV-RNN outperforms standard variational Bayes models in predicting unseen sequences and generalizes well.
Machine learning predicts perovskite formability and classifies crystal structures.
problem Predicting and classifying perovskite formability and crystal structures.
method Machine learning, specifically Random Forest, with 5-fold cross-validation.
result 98.57% accuracy in predicting perovskite formability and 90.53% in classifying crystal structures.
Paper proposes a predictive maintenance system for solar plants using big data.
problem Fault prediction in photovoltaic plants to reduce downtime and maintenance costs.
method Data-driven approach with unsupervised clustering and Pattern Recognition Neural Network.
result Effective prediction of both generic and specific faults, up to 7 days in advance.
Paper uses DRL for smart MG energy dispatch, improving stability and performance.
problem Improving energy dispatch in IoT-driven smart MGs with DGs, PVs, and batteries.
method Formulated POMDP model, proposed FH-DDPG and FH-RDPG algorithms, compared with baseline algorithms.
result Proposed algorithms enhance MG performance and stability under uncertainty.
HyPV-LEAD detects cryptocurrency anomalies proactively, improving financial security.
problem Cryptocurrency anomalies like mixing, fraud, and pump-and-dump operations are hard to detect due to class imbalance and temporal volatility.
method HyPV-LEAD integrates lead time into anomaly detection through window-horizon modeling, Peak-Valley sampling, and hyperbolic embedding.
result HyPV-LEAD achieves a PR-AUC of 0.9624 on Bitcoin transaction data, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
Improved fMRI activation detection for single-subject studies.
problem Challenges in detecting activation in low-signal fMRI studies.
method Model-based approach using MixfMRI R package.
result Reliable activation detection in single-subject fMRI studies.
An on-going debate in the energy economics and power market community has raised the question if energy-only power markets are increasingly failing due to growing feed-in shares from subsidized renewable energy sources (RES). The short answer to this is: No, they are not failing. Energy-based power markets are, however…
The paper studies gradient estimates for solutions of a nonlinear elliptic equation on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Gradient estimates for solutions of a specific nonlinear elliptic equation on Riemannian manifolds.
method Nash-Moser iteration method
result Gradient estimates and Liouville type theorems for positive solutions.
Given an elliptic action of a compact Lie group G on a co-oriented contact manifold (M,E) one obtains two naturally associated objects: A G-transversally elliptic operator $\dirac$, and an equivariant differential form with generalised coefficients J(E,X) defined in terms of a choice of contact form o…
This paper describes a consistent and arbitrage-free pricing methodology for bespoke CDO tranches. The proposed method is a multi-factor extension to the (Li 2009) model, and it is free of the known flaws in the current standard pricing method of base correlation mapping. This method assigns a distinct market factor to…
Paper compares simple and complex forecasting methods for photovoltaic power generation.
problem Improving accuracy of power generation forecasts from photovoltaic plants.
method Compared simple and sophisticated forecasting methods over 32 plants.
result Simpler methods are sufficient for accurate forecasts, but weather impacts are significant.
Value selection reduces model size while maintaining accuracy.
problem Space efficiency in model size reduction.
method Two probabilistic methods based on information theory's metric: PVS and P + VS.
result Value selection achieves balance between accuracy and model size reduction.
In the present paper, the minimal investment risk for a portfolio optimization problem with imposed budget and investment concentration constraints is considered using replica analysis. Since the minimal investment risk is influenced by the investment concentration constraint (as well as the budget constraint), it is i…
The paper clarifies long-horizon investment and DCA, showing no risk reduction but different exposure profiles.
problem Misleading claims about reducing risk with longer investment horizons and DCA.
method Unified probabilistic framework, defining risk and uncertainty, and introducing effective investment exposure.
result Different investment timing strategies can lead to distinct exposure profiles over time, affecting risk and uncertainty.
Nowadays, with the unprecedented penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs), the necessity of an efficient energy forecasting model is more demanding than before. Generally, forecasting models are trained using observed weather data while the trained models are applied for energy forecasting using for…
ChatGPT scores corporate investment plans, predicting future spending and returns.
problem Measuring and predicting corporate investment plans.
method Created a firm-level ChatGPT investment score based on conference calls.
result The investment score predicts future capital expenditures and returns.
Investment herding can reduce household consumption, a phenomenon called crowding-out effect.
problem Investment herding's impact on household consumption.
method Optimal control theory to model and solve for household investment and consumption decisions.
result Existence of crowding-out effect due to investment herding.
Qlib aims to integrate AI into quantitative investment.
problem Challenges in applying AI to quantitative investment.
method Design and develop Qlib to accommodate AI-driven workflow.
result Qlib realizes the potential of AI technologies in quantitative investment.
AI enhances quantitative investment for better returns and risk control.
problem Achieving stable returns through AI in quantitative investment.
method Application of AI technology in quantitative investment strategies.
result AI improves investment performance and risk management.
The investment economy is a main characteristic of prosperous society. The investment portfolio management is a main financial problem, which has to be solved by the investment, commercial and central banks with the application of modern portfolio theory in the investment economy. We use the learning analytics together…
Investing in declining tech boosts profits, study finds.
problem Optimal decision-making in declining profit streams.
method Modeling profit stream as Brownian motion with negative drift, analyzing thresholds for investment and exit.
result Investment threshold decreases in volatility when profit boost is large.
We study optimal investment problems under the framework of cumulative prospect theory (CPT). A CPT investor makes investment decisions in a single-period financial market with transaction costs. The objective is to seek the optimal investment strategy that maximizes the prospect value of the investor's final wealth. W…
This paper proposes an embedding-based neural network for more accurate investment return prediction.
problem Accurately predicting investment returns requires understanding industry knowledge and news, as well as leveraging relevant theories.
method The approach uses embedding to encode investment IDs into low-dimensional vectors, leveraging dual branches to separate different information, and employs the swish activation function.
result The proposed embedding-based dual branch model outperforms traditional machine learning models like Xgboost, Lightgbm, and Catboost on the Ubiquant Market Prediction dataset.
New approach to goal-based investing using hedging and reinforcement learning.
problem Maximizing probability of reaching investment goals with varying risk aversion.
method Lower partial moments, quantile hedging, efficient hedging, reinforcement learning.
result Optimal investment policies for goal-based investing are equivalent.
Investment decision triggered by a convex curve in a two-factor uncertainty model.
problem Optimal irreversible investment in a company with two products whose prices follow geometric Brownian motions.
method Two-dimensional optimal stopping problem, nonlinear integral equation, convex curve characterization.
result Optimal investment decision is characterized by a convex curve, unique solution to a nonlinear integral equation.
Geometric structure reveals optimal investment and hedging products.
problem Optimal design of investment and hedging products.
method Investigation of geometric structure in risks and returns using a simple formula.
result Duality between hedging and investment with geometric interpretation of rationality.
Intangible investment becomes a strong predictor of stock returns over time.
problem Understanding the role of intangible investment in stock returns over different periods.
method Comparing intangible investment's predictive power over two distinct periods (1963-1992 and 1993-2022) using orthogonal factors.
result Intangible investment's predictive power for stock returns has significantly increased over time, becoming a main predictor for recent periods.
Study shows institutional investments significantly impact cryptocurrency market evolution.
problem Limited understanding of institutional investments' role in cryptocurrency market evolution.
method Quantitative analysis of 1324 cryptocurrencies' investments from 2014-2022.
result Institutional investments correlate with cryptocurrency market capitalization.
Investment models account for both probabilistic and possibilistic risks.
problem Investment and background risks are modeled probabilistically and possibilistically.
method Developed three investment models combining probabilistic and possibilistic risks.
result Approximate calculation formula for optimal investment solutions proved.
WSB community outperforms investment banks in stock picks.
problem Can WSB's community provide better investment advice than banks?
method Data-driven comparison of WSB and bank recommendations on S&P 500 stocks.
result WSB recommendations outperform banks in some cases and detect top stocks better.
In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always resu…
This paper solves optimal consumption-investment choices with wealth-driven risk aversion using neural networks.
problem Optimal consumption-investment choices under wealth-driven risk aversion.
method Neural network LSTM trained on jump-diffusion model data to optimize investment rate and consumption.
result Neural network approach shows promising results in solving the investment problem.