New algorithm constructs PAC prediction sets for meta-learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in safety-critical systems.
method Proposes a novel algorithm to construct PAC prediction sets.
result Prediction sets satisfy a PAC guarantee with high probability over future tasks.
Algorithm constructs confidence sets for deep neural networks with PAC guarantees.
problem Ensuring reliable predictions for deep neural networks with high confidence.
method Combines calibrated prediction and learning theory bounds.
result Constructs PAC confidence sets for various deep models.
Algorithm constructs prediction sets with PAC guarantees in label shift settings.
problem Reliable uncertainty quantification in the face of distribution shift.
method Estimates predicted probabilities and confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty through Gaussian elimination to compute confidence intervals and construct prediction sets.
result Satisfies PAC guarantees and produces smaller, more informative prediction sets.
Proposes a method to quantify uncertainty in predictions under covariate shift.
problem Uncertainty quantification challenges in machine learning with covariate shifts.
method Constructs PAC prediction sets with given importance weights and confidence intervals for weights.
result Algorithm gives prediction sets with the smallest average normalized size.
Develops anytime-valid conformal and PAC prediction for streaming data.
problem Lack of guarantee in traditional conformal methods for sequential settings.
method Extends conformal and PAC prediction frameworks to handle streaming data.
result Provides anytime-valid prediction sets for sequential settings.
PAC-Bayesian framework for fairness in stochastic and deterministic classifiers.
problem Theoretical guarantees on fairness for balancing predictive risk and fairness constraints.
method PAC-Bayesian framework for both stochastic and deterministic classifiers, covering a broad class of fairness measures.
result Derives generalization bounds for fairness, demonstrating tightness with empirical evaluation.
The paper improves off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits using conformal prediction.
problem Quantifying the performance of a target policy using data from a different behavior policy.
method Proposes a novel algorithm based on a PAC-valid conformal prediction framework to construct probably approximately correct prediction intervals.
result Establishes PAC-type bounds on coverage, improving theoretical guarantees.
PAC-Bayes theory improves ICP efficiency and coverage.
problem Inefficient and unreliable uncertainty estimates in deep learning models.
method PAC-Bayes theory to optimize model and score function parameters for efficient and reliable prediction sets.
result Generalization bounds on coverage and efficiency of optimized prediction sets.
The paper improves PAC-Bayes bounds for data-dependent predictors.
problem Guaranteeing the quality of predictions on unseen examples.
method Basic PAC-Bayes inequality for stochastic kernels, leading to various bounds.
result Validates PAC-Bayes bounds without fixed 'data-free' priors and bounded losses.
We consider using an ensemble of binary classifiers for transductive prediction, when unlabeled test data are known in advance. We derive minimax optimal rules for confidence-rated prediction in this setting. By using PAC-Bayes analysis on these rules, we obtain data-dependent performance guarantees without distributio…
New PAC-Bayesian bounds for online learning with data streams.
problem Challenges of traditional PAC-Bayesian bounds in dynamic data collection.
method Developed new PAC-Bayesian bounds in online learning framework, using updated regret definition and batch-to-online conversion.
result PAC-Bayesian bounds hold for online learning with dependent data and non-convex losses.
This work uses PAC-Bayes for structured prediction with ILE, yielding insights and algorithms.
problem Structured prediction with interdependent outputs and implicit loss embeddings.
method PAC-Bayes perspective applied to ILE framework, deriving generalization bounds and learning algorithms.
result Two learning algorithms derived from PAC-Bayes bounds, analyzed and implemented.
The paper explores learning from label proportions, showing differences in efficiency between LLP and PAC learning.
problem Learning from label proportions (LLP) in unlabeled data with given label proportions.
method Formal definition and computational complexity analysis of LLP learning.
result LLP learning is more restrictive than PAC learning for finite VC classes, and some classes are uncharacterizable.
Learn conditional averages in PAC framework for better predictions.
problem Learning average labels over neighborhoods in unknown concept class.
method Characterization of learnability using combinatorial parameters.
result Complete characterization and sample complexity bounds.
The paper addresses the reliability of conformal prediction under covariate shift.
problem Ensuring reliable prediction sets under covariate shift.
method Derives upper bounds on training-conditional coverage.
result Offers PAC guarantees for conformal prediction methods.
Sharp sample complexity for multiclass PAC learning with bandit feedback.
problem Multiclass PAC learning with bandit feedback.
method Characterization of optimal sample complexity using a new combinatorial dimension (bandit DS dimension) and a learning algorithm (ListCascade).
result Sharp sample complexity characterization for every concept class up to logarithmic factors.
New bounds predict deep learning generalization better than existing methods.
problem Predicting generalization errors for deep learning models.
method Function-based PAC-Bayesian bounds that meet multiple desiderata.
result The new bound performs significantly better than existing parameter-based PAC-Bayes bounds.
New framework improves model reliability under distribution shifts.
problem Lack of formal guarantees connecting shift magnitude to prediction reliability in TTA methods.
method Develops a PAC-Bayesian framework interpreting MMD-balls as credal sets.
result Establishes generalization bounds and provides epistemic uncertainty quantification.
Improves Bayesian predictive performance in misspecified models.
problem Misspecification gap between inferential and predictive risks.
method Develops a multi-sample loss (PAC m ^m m ) to bridge the gap. result Empirical study shows improved predictive distribution.
Paper derives PAC-Bayesian bounds for LTI systems learning from empirical data.
problem Characterizing predictive power of LTI systems learned from data.
method PAC-Bayesian bounds for LTI stochastic dynamical systems with inputs.
result Finite-sample error bounds for learning algorithms of LTI systems.
Paper presents a new probabilistic approach for high-dimensional quantile prediction.
problem High-dimensional quantile prediction challenges in robust statistical methods.
method Pseudo-Bayesian framework with scaled Student-t prior and Langevin Monte Carlo.
result Demonstrates strong theoretical guarantees and competitive performance in simulations and real-world data.
New findings on PAC learning and marginal distribution estimation.
problem Understanding how PAC learning relates to marginal distribution estimation under distributional constraints.
method Revisited the connection between PAC learning, uniform convergence, and density estimation, considering a known family of marginal distributions.
result PAC learning is sandwiched between two refined models of density estimation, differing only in whether the learner knows the set of well-estimated events in H.
Novel Bayesian method for high-dimensional count data prediction.
problem Count data in high-dimensional settings requires feature selection.
method Pseudo-Bayesian framework with scaled Student prior and exponential weights.
result Strong performance compared to Lasso in various settings.
Enhances predictive models against misspecification and outliers.
problem Suboptimal generalization under misspecification and outliers.
method Combines PAC m ^m m ensemble bounds with a generalized logarithm score function. result Produces predictive distributions resistant to both misspecification and outliers.
Introduces PAC-Bayes bounds for understanding learning procedures.
problem Understanding the generalization ability of learning procedures.
method PAC-Bayesian bounds and their applications to neural networks.
result Simplified version of localization technique described.
Study improves theoretical understanding of Bayesian deep learning for classification tasks.
problem Theoretical gap in understanding Bayesian approaches in deep learning for classification.
method PAC-Bayes bounds techniques and Spike-and-Slab priors for sparse deep learning.
result Established non-asymptotic results for prediction error, achieving minimax optimal rates.
Novel risk bound for structured prediction tackles non-i.i.d. data.
problem Structured prediction challenges due to non-factorizable target objects.
method PAC-Bayesian risk bound with explicit structure distillation.
result Generalization rate scales with data size and structure.
New method predicts spatio-temporal data with short and long-range dependence.
problem Uncertainty in predicting the distribution of mixed moving average fields.
method Theory-guided machine learning approach using generalized Bayesian algorithm.
result Fixed-time and any-time PAC Bayesian bounds for ensemble forecasts.
PAC-Bayesian theory applied to data-dependent hypothesis sets yields uniform generalization bounds.
problem Proving uniform generalization bounds for data-dependent hypothesis sets.
method Applying PAC-Bayesian framework on 'random sets' and considering data-dependent hypothesis sets.
result Data-dependent uniform generalization bounds are proven, providing tighter and unified results.
Improves model accuracy for neural nets in stochastic dynamics with partial prior knowledge.
problem Stability and accuracy in neural nets modeling stochastic dynamics with many parameters.
method Three steps: probabilistic weights, partial knowledge incorporation, and PAC-Bayesian training.
result Improved model fit with partial and noisy prior knowledge.
New PAC-Bayesian framework for flexible meta-learning.
problem Limitations in transferring knowledge between tasks in meta-learning.
method PAC-Bayesian theory applied to learning the learning algorithm.
result Flexibility in meta-learning mechanisms and improved prediction quality.
Large language models can't efficiently reason conditionally in a distribution-free setting.
problem Impossibility of conditional PAC-efficient reasoning in large language models.
method Proof of impossibility in a distribution-free setting for non-atomic input spaces.
result Any algorithm achieving conditional PAC efficiency must defer to the expert model with high probability.
Investigates tight PAC-Bayes bounds for small datasets.
problem Tightening PAC-Bayes bounds for small data.
method Generic PAC-Bayes theorem, meta-learning, synthetic tasks.
result PAC-Bayes bounds are competitive with Chernoff bounds but not as tight.
Bayesian framework reduces online optimization regret.
problem Sequential optimization in dynamic environments with bounded losses.
method PAC-Bayes theory and Bayesian updating principles.
result Achieves O ( T ) \mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T}) O ( T ) regret for bounded losses. New framework connects online learning to statistical learning for better generalization bounds.
problem Deriving generalization bounds for statistical learning algorithms.
method Constructing an online learning game and showing a connection to statistical learning.
result Established a connection between online and statistical learning, leading to new generalization bounds.
In this paper, we analyze PAC learnability from labels produced by crowdsourcing. In our setting, unlabeled examples are drawn from a distribution and labels are crowdsourced from workers who operate under classification noise, each with their own noise parameter. We develop an end-to-end crowdsourced PAC learning algo…
Paper develops PAC verification for hypothesis classes and statistical algorithms.
problem Verifying machine learning models interactively.
method Develops interactive proof for PAC verification, proves lower bounds, and introduces a generalization.
result Improved protocol for verifying unions of intervals and statistical query algorithms.
New PAC-Bayesian bounds for multi-view learning using Rényi divergence.
problem Applying PAC-Bayesian theory to multi-view learning.
method Introducing novel PAC-Bayesian bounds based on Rényi divergence for multi-view learning.
result Efficient optimization algorithms that align with theoretical bounds.
PAC-Wrap provides provable guarantees for semi-supervised anomaly detection.
problem Ensuring reliable anomaly detection in safety-critical applications.
method PAC-Wrap wraps around existing anomaly detection methods to provide PAC guarantees.
result PAC-Wrap effectively provides rigorous guarantees for various anomaly detectors.
This research improves binary classification by balancing overfitting and generalization with a novel Bayesian approach.
problem Improving binary classification models to avoid overfitting and generalize well.
method Introduces a PAC-Bayes type learning rule with a balancing parameter λ to balance training error and KL divergence to a prior.
result A choice of λ ensures uniformly vanishing excess loss, even in the agnostic case, by under-regularizing or over-regularizing appropriately.
This work characterizes when a hypothesis class can be k-list learned.
problem Characterizing when a hypothesis class can be k-list learned.
method Introducing the k-DS dimension and proving the equivalence of k-list learnability and the finiteness of the k-DS dimension.
result A hypothesis class is k-list learnable if and only if the k-DS dimension is finite.
Study computable multiclass learning within PAC framework.
problem Computable multiclass learnability in finite label space.
method Proposed computable version of Natarajan dimension and generalized to distinguishers.
result Characterizes CPAC learnability for certain dimensions and embeddings.
PACOH improves meta-learning with theoretical guarantees and practical efficiency.
problem Meta-learning's generalization to unseen tasks is poorly understood, especially with limited meta-training tasks.
method PAC-Bayesian framework for deriving generalization bounds and developing PAC-optimal meta-learning algorithms.
result PACOH yields state-of-the-art performance in predictive accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
Efficient PAC learning for contrastive linear representations is achieved.
problem Efficient PAC learning for contrastive linear representations.
method Relaxing the problem to a semi-definite program and using Rademacher complexity.
result First efficient PAC learning algorithm for contrastive learning.
We explore the family of methods "PAC-Bayes with Backprop" (PBB) to train probabilistic neural networks by minimizing PAC-Bayes bounds. We present two training objectives, one derived from a previously known PAC-Bayes bound, and a second one derived from a novel PAC-Bayes bound. Both training objectives are evaluated o…
Characterizes the sample complexity of list regression tasks.
problem Understanding the sample complexity of list learning tasks in regression.
method Introducing two combinatorial dimensions: k-OIG dimension and k-fat-shattering dimension.
result These dimensions characterize realizable and agnostic k-list regression.
We propose a new objective, the counterfactual objective, unifying existing objectives for off-policy policy gradient algorithms in the continuing reinforcement learning (RL) setting. Compared to the commonly used excursion objective, which can be misleading about the performance of the target policy when deployed, our…
Paper develops tighter risk certificates for contrastive learning models.
problem Statistical theory for contrastive learning is lacking, especially for practical models like SimCLR.
method Develops non-vacuous PAC-Bayesian risk certificates considering practical SimCLR factors.
result Risk certificates for contrastive loss and downstream prediction are much tighter than previous results.