New urn problem considers unknown sampling method.
problem Optimal stopping in urn sampling with unknown method.
method Continuous-time analog and bounds on value function.
result Optimal strategy same for balanced urn, surprising.
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20 results for “Pólya Urn”
International Trade: a Reinforced Urn Network Modelphysics.soc-ph
We propose a unified modelling framework that theoretically justifies the main empirical regularities characterizing the international trade network. Each country is associated to a Polya urn whose composition controls the propensity of the country to trade with other countries. The urn composition is updated through t…
New BAM model connects tensor factorization and topic models using Polya Urns.
problem Efficiently modeling and analyzing nonnegative tensors and topic distributions.
method Dynamic generative model BAM based on Poisson process and Polya-Bayes process.
result Developed efficient simulation algorithms for NTF and topic models.
URN neural network dynamically generates various neural structures during training.
problem Creating neural networks with flexible, dynamic structures during training.
method Introduced Unstructured Recursive Network (URN) and used gradient descent on a single loss function.
result Different neural structures can emerge from a single URN during training.
The continuum-of-urns scheme, generalized beta and Indian buffet processes, and hierarchies thereofmath.PR
We describe the combinatorial stochastic process underlying a sequence of conditionally independent Bernoulli processes with a shared beta process hazard measure. As shown by Thibaux and Jordan [TJ07], in the special case when the underlying beta process has a constant concentration function and a finite and nonatomic …
A new sampler speeds up LDA topic modeling for big data.
problem Training LDA on large corpora is slow and requires dense memory storage.
method Uses a Pólya-urn-based approximation in a sparse partially collapsed sampler.
result The new sampler is faster and asymptotically exact.
A new method for detecting anomalies in large, high-dimensional data streams using probabilistic forest models.
problem Challenges in detecting anomalies in large, high-dimensional data.
method Probabilistic Mondrian Pólya Forests for summarizing data and estimating underlying probability density.
result State-of-the-art performance with interpretable anomaly scores.
New MAB model incentivizes user arm-pulling with self-reinforcing preferences.
problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in recommender systems with incentivized user preferences.
method Proposes a new MAB model with random arm selection and two policies: At-Least- Explore-Then-Commit and UCB-List.
result Achieves expected regret and expected payment over a time horizon .
Self-poisoning in adaptive OOD detectors is explained with a sharp threshold theory and certified calibration.
problem Self-poisoning in adaptive OOD detectors.
method Modeling bank impurity as a generalized Pólya urn, proving almost-sure convergence to a mean-field equilibrium.
result A certified admission gate removes the transition at every contamination rate, controlling false positives label-free.
We study the problem of identifying the source of a diffusion spreading over a regular tree. When the degree of each node is at least three, we show that it is possible to construct confidence sets for the diffusion source with size independent of the number of infected nodes. Our estimators are motivated by analogous …
This paper attempts to find out numerically the distribution of the queue-length ratio in the context of a model of preferential attachment. Here we consider two restaurants only and a large number of customers (agents) who come to these restaurants. Each day the same number of agents sequentially arrives and decides w…
We present a Bayesian nonparametric framework for multilevel clustering which utilizes group-level context information to simultaneously discover low-dimensional structures of the group contents and partitions groups into clusters. Using the Dirichlet process as the building block, our model constructs a product base-m…
The paper introduces the concept of a cluster structure to define a joint distribution of the sample size and its exchangeable random partitions. The cluster structure allows the probability distribution of the random partitions of a subset of the sample to be dependent on the sample size, a feature not presented in a …
Unsupervised Detection and Tracking of Arbitrary Objects with Dependent Dirichlet Process Mixturesstat.ML
This paper proposes a technique for the unsupervised detection and tracking of arbitrary objects in videos. It is intended to reduce the need for detection and localization methods tailored to specific object types and serve as a general framework applicable to videos with varied objects, backgrounds, and image qualiti…
Model predicts capital flow and product share dynamics in international trade.
problem Understanding how capital flows between different industrial sectors affects product shares in international trade.
method Stochastic transfer model based on observed scaling relations.
result Model accurately predicts the distribution of product shares and identifies capital condensation.
The main contribution of this article is a new prior distribution over directed acyclic graphs, which gives larger weight to sparse graphs. This distribution is intended for structured Bayesian networks, where the structure is given by an ordered block model. That is, the nodes of the graph are objects which fall into …
Underlying Dynamics of Typical Fluctuations of an Emerging Market Price Index: The Heston Model from Minutes to Monthsphysics.soc-ph
We investigate the Heston model with stochastic volatility and exponential tails as a model for the typical price fluctuations of the Brazilian São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA). Raw prices are first corrected for inflation and a period spanning 15 years characterized by memoryless returns is chosen for the ana…
Elicitation without Backpropagation: Steering Model Behavior by Optimizing the Latent Posteriorcs.LG
PPT optimizes transformer behavior by steering its latent posterior using prior samples.
problem Eliciting desired behavior from transformers without backpropagation.
method Posterior Prefix Tuning (PPT) uses predictive Monte Carlo (PMC) samples and importance sampling to optimize the latent posterior.
result PPT optimizes transformer behavior without backpropagation, achieving high utility across different utility functions.
Statistical network modeling has focused on representing the graph as a discrete structure, namely the adjacency matrix, and considering the exchangeability of this array. In such cases, the Aldous-Hoover representation theorem (Aldous, 1981;Hoover, 1979} applies and informs us that the graph is necessarily either dens…
Survey on Bayesian inference for Gaussian mixture models.
problem Estimating parameters of Gaussian mixture models using Bayesian methods.
method Uses Bayesian inference to estimate parameters and uncertainty of Gaussian mixture models.
result Bayesian approach provides point estimates and associated uncertainty for mixture model parameters.