In this article, we analyze the application of options contract in special commodity supply chain such as fresh agricultural products. This problem is discussed in the point of the retailer. When spot market and future market are both available, we discuss how the retailer chooses the optimal production. Furthermore, o…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “Overconfidence”
The thesis tackles overconfident approximations in simulation-based inference.
problem Overconfident conclusions from machine learning approximations in statistical analyses.
method Introduces balancing and Bayesian neural networks to reduce overconfidence.
result Balancing and Bayesian neural networks lead to less overconfident approximations.
An Infinite-Feature Extension for Bayesian ReLU Nets That Fixes Their Asymptotic Overconfidencecs.LG
Bayesian ReLU nets fix asymptotic overconfidence with infinite features.
problem Bayesian ReLU nets can be asymptotically overconfident far from training data.
method Extend finite ReLU BNNs with infinite ReLU features via a Gaussian process.
result The resulting model is asymptotically maximally uncertain far from the data.
Regularized mixtures improve inflation and interest rate forecasts, especially correcting overconfidence.
problem Improving density forecasts of Eurozone inflation and real interest rates.
method Construct regularized mixtures of density forecasts with various objectives and penalties.
result Regularized mixtures outperform individual forecasters, especially correcting overconfidence.
Bayesian approach fixes overconfidence in ReLU networks, even slightly.
problem Overconfidence in ReLU networks far from training data.
method Theoretical analysis of approximate Gaussian distributions on ReLU weights, and empirical validation.
result Even a simplistic Bayesian approximation fixes overconfidence issues.
New CNN approach reduces overconfidence in object classification predictions.
problem Overconfident predictions from deep models, especially SoftMax layer.
method Introduces CNN probabilistic approach using Logit layer for Bayesian inference.
result Proposed approach shows promising performance compared to SoftMax.
DRO-NPE improves neural posterior estimation by reducing overconfidence and overfitting.
problem Overconfident and unreliable posteriors in simulation-based inference with limited simulation budgets.
method Distributionally robust approach using Wasserstein ambiguity set and KL-based metrics.
result Consistently improves coverage and calibration across benchmark tasks.
New method improves deep learning models' uncertainty estimates.
problem Overconfidence in deep learning predictions.
method Develops a novel training algorithm using conformal inference.
result Produces more reliable uncertainty estimates without sacrificing accuracy.
We describe a limitation in the expressiveness of the predictive uncertainty estimate given by mean-field variational inference (MFVI), a popular approximate inference method for Bayesian neural networks. In particular, MFVI fails to give calibrated uncertainty estimates in between separated regions of observations. Th…
Assessing the predictive accuracy of black box classifiers is challenging in the absence of labeled test datasets. In these scenarios we may need to rely on a human oracle to evaluate individual predictions; presenting the challenge to create query algorithms to guide the search for points that provide the most informa…
This work improves neural network trustworthiness through uncertainty estimation.
problem Overconfident neural networks lead to poor performance under distribution shifts.
method Develops a general uncertainty framework for neural networks, including classification with rejection.
result Improves model trustworthiness and robustness in decision-making tasks.
New BNN method reduces training time and model size.
problem Overconfident predictions in deep learning models.
method Designing STF-BNN for efficient scaling of BNNs.
result Significantly reduces training time and model size compared to vanilla BNNs.
Restoring Calibration for Aligned Large Language Models: A Calibration-Aware Fine-Tuning Approachcs.LG
The paper addresses poor calibration in fine-tuned LLMs after preference alignment.
problem Poor calibration in fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) after preference alignment.
method Proposes a calibration-aware fine-tuning approach to restore calibration without compromising model performance.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methods through extensive experiments.
New method improves OOD detection by integrating diffusion models into discriminator models.
problem Overconfidence in discriminator models leads to poor OOD detection.
method Integrates diffusion models into discriminator and generation models to mitigate overconfidence.
result Demonstrates significant improvement in AUROC scores for challenging datasets.
New metrics CWSA and CWSA+ improve model evaluation under confidence thresholds.
problem Lack of metrics capturing model reliability under confidence thresholds.
method Introducing CWSA and CWSA+ metrics that reward confident accuracy and penalize overconfident mistakes.
result CWSA and CWSA+ outperform classical metrics in trust-sensitive tests.
BLoB fine-tunes LLMs with Bayesian methods to improve uncertainty estimation.
problem Overconfidence in LLMs during inference for domain-specific tasks.
method Continuous Bayesian low-rank adaptation during fine-tuning.
result BLoB improves generalization and uncertainty estimation in LLMs.
Combines Laplace approximations of deep networks for better uncertainty quantification.
problem Overconfident predictions on outliers in deep learning models.
method Gaussian mixture model posterior using weighted sum of Laplace approximations of pre-trained deep networks.
result Mitigates overconfidence 'far away' from training data.
Active learning methods for neural networks are usually based on greedy criteria which ultimately give a single new design point for the evaluation. Such an approach requires either some heuristics to sample a batch of design points at one active learning iteration, or retraining the neural network after adding each da…
Bayesian models for networks are often misspecified, leading to overconfident inference.
problem Real-world networks violate assumptions of geometry and link function in latent space models.
method Proposes a generalized posterior framework for random geometric graphs, using Link-Sequential R-SafeBayes to adaptively tune posterior regularization.
result Improved calibration and better link prediction performance demonstrated on synthetic and real-world networks.
Time series foundation models are well-calibrated, improving over baseline models.
problem Calibration of time series foundation models for practical applications.
method Systematic evaluations of five time series foundation models and two baselines, assessing calibration, prediction heads, and long-term forecasting.
result Time series foundation models are consistently better calibrated than baseline models and do not show over- or under-confidence.
New research challenges the independence assumption in neurosymbolic learning, leading to overconfident predictions and unrepresentable uncertainty.
problem The independence assumption in neurosymbolic learning systems can lead to overconfident predictions and hinder uncertainty quantification.
method The study proves the limitations of the independence assumption and introduces new loss functions that are non-convex and difficult to optimise.
result Neurosymbolic learning systems using the independence assumption are prone to overconfidence and cannot represent uncertainty over multiple valid options.
Modern deep artificial neural networks have achieved great success in the domain of computer vision and beyond. However, their application to many real-world tasks is undermined by certain limitations, such as overconfident uncertainty estimates on out-of-distribution data or performance deterioration under data distri…
OrthoGrad improves neural calibration by constraining gradient updates orthogonally.
problem Overconfidence in neural networks, leading to poor uncertainty estimates.
method Orthogonal gradient updates to optimize for decision boundaries and reduce overconfidence.
result Significant improvements in test loss, predictive entropy, and confidence measures.
A novel post-hoc calibration method reduces neural network calibration errors.
problem Neural networks produce poorly calibrated probabilities, leading to underconfidence and overconfidence.
method Probability bounding (PB) via box-constrained softmax (BCSoftmax) function.
result Consistently reduces calibration errors on four real-world datasets.
QLA improves Bayesian uncertainty estimation for DNNs without increasing computational cost.
problem Overconfident out-of-distribution predictions from DNNs.
method Proposes Quadratic Laplace Approximation (QLA) to improve Bayesian uncertainty quantification.
result QLA yields modest yet consistent uncertainty estimation improvements over Linearized Laplace Approximation (LLA) on five regression datasets.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have excellent representative power and are state of the art classifiers on many tasks. However, they often do not capture their own uncertainties well making them less robust in the real world as they overconfidently extrapolate and do not notice domain shift. Gaussian processes (GPs) with …
The main aim of this work is to incorporate selected findings from behavioural finance into a Heterogeneous Agent Model using the Brock and Hommes (1998) framework. Behavioural patterns are injected into an asset pricing framework through the so-called `Break Point Date', which allows us to examine their direct impact.…
Flexible evidential deep learning improves uncertainty quantification in machine learning.
problem Overconfident predictions in machine learning models can lead to serious consequences.
method Proposes flexible evidential deep learning (F-EDL) to model uncertainty over class probabilities using a flexible Dirichlet distribution.
result Empirically demonstrates state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification performance across diverse scenarios.
New method calibrates neural SBI to avoid overconfident posteriors.
problem Overconfident posteriors in SBI due to inaccurate uncertainty quantification.
method Introduces a calibration term into neural model training objective, enabling end-to-end backpropagation.
result Achieves competitive or better coverage and posterior density than existing methods.
New method improves auto-labeling accuracy by optimizing confidence functions.
problem Overconfident model scores lead to poor TBAL performance.
method Developed a new post-hoc method, Colander, to optimize TBAL confidence functions.
result Achieves up to 60% improvement in coverage over baseline methods.
A post-hoc framework improves model performance by calibrating different feature spaces.
problem Improving AUC performance on binary classification tasks for overconfident models.
method Identifies heterogeneous partitions of the feature space and applies post-hoc calibration techniques to each partition.
result Theoretical optimality of the framework for any model, demonstrated on deep neural networks.
Paper proposes a method to improve deep neural networks' confidence estimates.
problem Overconfident predictions limit practical use of deep neural networks in safety-critical applications.
method Proposes a novel loss function, Correctness Ranking Loss, to regularize class probabilities.
result The method produces well-ranked confidence estimates and is effective for out-of-distribution detection and active learning.
Pairwise Label Smoothing improves deep model generalization by reducing overconfidence.
problem Improving deep model generalization through regularization.
method PLS smooths labels for pairs of samples, learning distribution mass during training.
result PLS significantly outperforms LS and baseline models, reducing up to 30% classification error.
Improved Bayesian FL method calibrates predictions for federated learning.
problem Overconfident predictions in Bayesian FL methods for federated learning.
method β-Predictive Bayes algorithm interpolates between mixture and product of local predictive posteriors, tuning parameter β for better calibration.
result Demonstrated superior calibration compared to other baselines, even with increased data heterogeneity.
CoT-UQ improves LLM uncertainty quantification by integrating reasoning steps.
problem LLMs' overconfidence and lack of response-wise uncertainty quantification.
method Integrates LLMs' reasoning steps into uncertainty estimation.
result Significantly improves uncertainty quantification accuracy (5.9% AUROC improvement).
High-risk domains require reliable confidence estimates from predictive models. Deep latent variable models provide these, but suffer from the rigid variational distributions used for tractable inference, which err on the side of overconfidence. We propose Stochastic Quantized Activation Distributions (SQUAD), which im…
We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution, decoupling the transition function from the system states. This is not exact in gene…
Bayesian framework improves deep classifier reliability.
problem Overconfident models under dataset shift.
method Bayesian inference with out-of-distribution data augmentation.
result Reliable uncertainty estimates for deep classifiers.
Unified framework for hierarchical image classification with epistemic uncertainty.
problem Overconfident predictions and lack of logical consistency in deep learning models.
method Neurosymbolic approach with epistemic deep learning, using focal set reasoning and differentiable fuzzy logic.
result Maintains accuracy on par with transformer baselines while providing more calibrated and interpretable predictions.
Diverse Beliefsq-fin.GN
This paper presents a general framework for studying diverse beliefs in dynamic economies. Within this general framework, the characterization of a central-planner general equilbrium turns out to be very easy to derive, and leads to a range of interesting applications. We show how for an economy with log investors hold…
ALIEN improves uncertainty estimation of language models by refining entropy-based methods.
problem Overconfidence in uncertainty estimation for language models, especially for difficult inputs.
method ALIEN refines entropy-based uncertainty by aligning it with prediction reliability, using a lightweight uncertainty head.
result ALIEN consistently outperforms strong baselines in detecting incorrect predictions and achieving the lowest calibration error.
ePF improves PF for ITS by balancing exploration and exploitation, outperforming baselines.
problem Premature exploitation in PF leads to suboptimal solutions under constrained budgets.
method Integrates Entropic Annealing and Look-ahead Modulation to preserve diversity and evaluate potential.
result Significant improvement in task reward (up to 50% relative) on math benchmarks.
Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions, which can be very harmful when this arises in safety critical applications. In …
Market confidence is essential for successful investing. By incorporating multi-market into the evolutionary minority game, we investigate the effects of investor beliefs on the evolution of collective behaviors and asset prices. When there exists another investment opportunity, market confidence, including overconfide…
Modern neural networks tend to be overconfident on unseen, noisy or incorrectly labelled data and do not produce meaningful uncertainty measures. Bayesian deep learning aims to address this shortcoming with variational approximations (such as Bayes by Backprop or Multiplicative Normalising Flows). However, current appr…
FDN improves probabilistic regressors' adaptability to distribution shifts.
problem Overconfidence in modern probabilistic regressors under distribution shift.
method FDN uses input-conditioned distributions over network weights, trained with a Monte Carlo beta-ELBO objective.
result FDN produces predictive mixtures whose dispersion adapts to the input, providing shift-aware uncertainty.
The paper analyzes uncertainty quantification in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
problem Analyzing uncertainty in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
method Theoretical guarantees and limitations for pointwise credible sets are derived for a rescaled Brownian motion prior with a sparse variational Gaussian process method.
result Theoretical characterization of asymptotic frequentist coverage for credible sets, distinguishing conservative and overconfident cases.
The recently proposed Sequence-to-Sequence (seq2seq) framework advocates replacing complex data processing pipelines, such as an entire automatic speech recognition system, with a single neural network trained in an end-to-end fashion. In this contribution, we analyse an attention-based seq2seq speech recognition syste…