A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new algorithm estimates output ranges for deep neural networks efficiently.
Industrial process control systems try to keep an output variable within a given tolerance around a target value. PID control systems have been widely used in industry to control input variables in order to reach this goal. However, this kind of Transfer Function based approach cannot be extended to complex processes w…
Deep neural networks (NN) are extensively used for machine learning tasks such as image classification, perception and control of autonomous systems. Increasingly, these deep NNs are also been deployed in high-assurance applications. Thus, there is a pressing need for developing techniques to verify neural networks to …
We formalize notions of robustness for composite estimators via the notion of a breakdown point. A composite estimator successively applies two (or more) estimators: on data decomposed into disjoint parts, it applies the first estimator on each part, then the second estimator on the outputs of the first estimator. And …
Paper extends Bayes Theorem for interval probability estimates.
We analyze the problem of regression when both input covariates and output responses are functions from a nonparametric function class. Function to function regression (FFR) covers a large range of interesting applications including time-series prediction problems, and also more general tasks like studying a mapping be…
A main goal of regression is to derive statistical conclusions on the conditional distribution of the output variable Y given the input values x. Two of the most important characteristics of a single distribution are location and scale. Support vector machines (SVMs) are well established to estimate location functions …
In this paper we consider the problem of finding stable maxima of expensive (to evaluate) functions. We are motivated by the optimisation of physical and industrial processes where, for some input ranges, small and unavoidable variations in inputs lead to unacceptably large variation in outputs. Our approach uses multi…
SGPA calibrates transformer uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.
New neural process models produce correlated predictions for better estimation tasks.
New bounds estimate learning algorithm performance using prediction information.
SpodNet learns SPD matrices with structural constraints.
Paper proposes a method to improve deep neural networks' confidence estimates.
Ranger improves DNNs' fault resilience without re-computation.
Volterra series are especially useful for nonlinear system identification, also thanks to their capability to approximate a broad range of input-output maps. However, their identification from a finite set of data is hard, due to the curse of dimensionality. Recent approaches have shown how regularized kernel-based met…
Bayesian neural network (BNN) priors are defined in parameter space, making it hard to encode prior knowledge expressed in function space. We formulate a prior that incorporates functional constraints about what the output can or cannot be in regions of the input space. Output-Constrained BNNs (OC-BNN) represent an int…
This paper demonstrates two novel methods to estimate the global SNR of speech signals. In both methods, Deep Neural Network-Hidden Markov Model (DNN-HMM) acoustic model used in speech recognition systems is leveraged for the additional task of SNR estimation. In the first method, the entropy of the DNN-HMM output is c…
We interpret black box predictive models using causal attribution.
Simple method improves uncertainty estimation for distribution shifts.
DeepSKA provides interpretable, reliable neural approximations for SRNs.
WS-KDE provides robust confidence bounds for stochastic functions.
Mutually interacting components form complex systems and the outputs of these components are usually long-range cross-correlated. Using wavelet leaders, we propose a method of characterizing the joint multifractal nature of these long-range cross correlations, a method we call joint multifractal analysis based on wavel…
We investigate how simultaneously recorded long-range power-law correlated multi-variate signals cross-correlate. To this end we introduce a two-component ARFIMA stochastic process and a two-component FIARCH process to generate coupled fractal signals with long-range power-law correlations which are at the same time lo…
Proposes a cost-sensitive method to generate probabilistic SVM outputs.
This paper compares log-likelihood and BLEU scores for sequence generation tasks.
One-shot federated learning method for prediction sets.
Paper explores variable skipping to speed up range density estimation.
Deep generative networks provide a powerful tool for modeling complex data in a wide range of applications. In inverse problems that use these networks as generative priors on data, one must often perform inference of the inputs of the networks from the outputs. Inference is also required for sampling during stochastic…
Optimistic bounds for multi-output learning using self-bounding Lipschitz condition.
Verifying correctness of deep neural networks (DNNs) is challenging. We study a generic reachability problem for feed-forward DNNs which, for a given set of inputs to the network and a Lipschitz-continuous function over its outputs, computes the lower and upper bound on the function values. Because the network and the …
Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machines (CRBMs) are rich probabilistic models that have recently been applied to a wide range of problems, including collaborative filtering, classification, and modeling motion capture data. While much progress has been made in training non-conditional RBMs, these algorithms are not a…
A probability density function (pdf) encodes the entire stochastic knowledge about data distribution, where data may represent stochastic observations in robotics, transition state pairs in reinforcement learning or any other empirically acquired modality. Inferring data pdf is of prime importance, allowing to analyze …
Cohesion uses deep Koopman operators to generate long-range forecasts of chaotic dynamics.
Unified method for balancing simulation and data collection.
Unified framework for output analysis using Monte Carlo sampling.
In the manufacturing industry, it is often necessary to repeat expensive operational testing of machine in order to identify the range of input conditions under which the machine operates properly. Since it is often difficult to accurately control the input conditions during the actual usage of the machine, there is a …
We study a budgeted hyper-parameter tuning problem, where we optimize the tuning result under a hard resource constraint. We propose to solve it as a sequential decision making problem, such that we can use the partial training progress of configurations to dynamically allocate the remaining budget. Our algorithm combi…
Gaussian processes (GPs), or distributions over arbitrary functions in a continuous domain, can be generalized to the multi-output case: a linear model of coregionalization (LMC) is one approach. LMCs estimate and exploit correlations across the multiple outputs. While model estimation can be performed efficiently for …
New kernel models multi-output Gaussian processes accurately.
We present a novel approach for learning an HMM whose outputs are distributed according to a parametric family. This is done by {\em decoupling} the learning task into two steps: first estimating the output parameters, and then estimating the hidden states transition probabilities. The first step is accomplished by fit…
We consider a framework for structured prediction based on search in the space of complete structured outputs. Given a structured input, an output is produced by running a time-bounded search procedure guided by a learned cost function, and then returning the least cost output uncovered during the search. This framewor…
A new algorithm computes Fourier coefficients for a specified range efficiently.
We introduce a new approach for amortizing inference in directed graphical models by learning heuristic approximations to stochastic inverses, designed specifically for use as proposal distributions in sequential Monte Carlo methods. We describe a procedure for constructing and learning a structured neural network whic…
Operator-Valued Kernels (OVKs) and associated vector-valued Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces provide an elegant way to extend scalar kernel methods when the output space is a Hilbert space. Although primarily used in finite dimension for problems like multi-task regression, the ability of this framework to deal with i…
Proposes methods for online conformal prediction with nested prediction sets across multiple confidence levels.
A new method for forming learning objectives using the sum of ranked range.
Highly accurate interval forecasting of a stock price index is fundamental to successfully making a profit when making investment decisions, by providing a range of values rather than a point estimate. In this study, we investigate the possibility of forecasting an interval-valued stock price index series over short an…
This paper proposes a fast method for estimating input-dependent prediction intervals in Extreme Learning Machines.