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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Out-of-distribution risk bound

Neural operators improve solving Helmholtz equation for various wave speeds.

problem Neural operators struggle with out-of-distribution scenarios for high-frequency waves.
method Proposed a subfamily of neural operators with stochastic depth for enhanced approximation of the Helmholtz equation.
result Neural operators with stochastic depth outperform standard models in out-of-distribution scenarios.

Study optimal ridge regularization for out-of-distribution prediction.

problem Optimal ridge regularization for predicting out-of-distribution data.
method Established conditions for optimal regularization under covariate and regression shifts, proving monotonic risk in data aspect ratio.
result Negative regularization can be optimal under shifts, even with isotropic or underparameterized training features.

New findings link causal models to strategic classification, improving robustness and alignment.

problem Strategic adaptation by users in classification tasks.
method Causal models to bound worst-case out-of-distribution risk.
result Causal classification optimizes classification error after adaptation under certain noise conditions.

PAIR optimizes machine learning models to generalize better to out-of-distribution data.

problem Optimization of machine learning models for out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization often leads to compromises that weaken robustness.
method Introduces a multi-objective optimization (MOO) perspective and a new optimization scheme called PAreto Invariant Risk Minimization (PAIR).
result PAIR improves robustness of OOD objectives by cooperatively optimizing with other objectives, yielding top OOD performances.

Paper decomposes risk into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties and generates predictive uncertainty measures.

problem Unclear relationships between various predictive uncertainty measures in literature.
method Bayesian estimation to decompose risk into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, generating different predictive uncertainty measures.
result Experimental validation confirms usefulness of derived predictive uncertainty measures for detecting out-of-distribution and misclassified instances.

MaxRM uses random forests to minimize maximum risk across different environments.

problem Designing methods that generalize better to test environments with different distributions.
method Introducing variants of random forests based on the principle of MaxRM (Maximum Risk Minimization).
result Proved statistical consistency for the proposed method and provided an out-of-sample guarantee for MaxRM with regret.

SLUG method detects bias and out-of-distribution content in generative models.

problem Generative models can underrepresent certain groups and fail on out-of-distribution data.
method SLUG: A new uncertainty quantification method for VAEs combining Laplace approximations and stochastic trace estimators.
result SLUG's UQ score correlates with bias and out-of-distribution content.

Paper aims to ensure reliable detection of out-of-distribution data with certifiable worst-case guarantees.

problem Deep neural networks are overconfident with OOD inputs, posing safety risks.
method Enforces low confidence and bounds in an ll_\infty-ball around OOD points using interval bound propagation (IBP).
result Certifiable worst-case guarantees for OOD detection are possible without significant loss in accuracy.

Bayesian autoencoder detects AI safety risk of out-of-distribution inputs.

problem Detecting unreliable predictions from AI models with different distributions.
method Probabilistic, unsupervised Bayesian variational autoencoder with posterior estimation.
result Effective detection of out-of-distribution inputs in both input and latent spaces.

Work proposes a new framework to improve uncertainty estimation in deep Bayesian models.

problem Traditional training procedures underestimate uncertainty in NLMs, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Introduces a novel training framework that captures useful predictive uncertainties for out-of-distribution inputs.
result Demonstrates that traditional methods for NLMs significantly underestimate uncertainty and propose a new framework to address this issue.

MetaPhysiCa tackles robust physics-informed machine learning for OOD tasks.

problem Designing robust PIML methods for OOD forecasting tasks in physics.
method Meta-learning procedure for causal structure discovery including invariant risk minimization.
result Significantly outperforms existing PIML and deep learning methods in OOD tasks.

We introduce Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM), a learning paradigm to estimate invariant correlations across multiple training distributions. To achieve this goal, IRM learns a data representation such that the optimal classifier, on top of that data representation, matches for all training distributions. Through theo…

2019-07-05abs ↗pdf ↗

IRM fails to improve over standard methods in complex settings.

problem Learning invariant features for out-of-distribution generalization.
method Analysis of Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) and related approaches under a general model.
result IRM can fail catastrophically in non-linear settings, even when test data are similar to training distribution.

New framework detects near vs. far out-of-distribution samples for AI safety.

problem Binary OOD detection fails to distinguish between semantically close and distant unknown risks.
method Ternary classification based on Low-Entropy Semantic Manifolds and Semantic Surprise Vector.
result Framework achieves state-of-the-art performance on ternary OOD detection task.

This work analyzes IRM and ERM from sample complexity perspective, revealing different behaviors under various distribution shifts.

problem Choosing between IRM and ERM for OOD generalization.
method Sample complexity analysis comparing IRM and ERM under different data generation mechanisms.
result IRM is preferred over ERM for certain distribution shifts, leading to better OOD generalization.

FeAT improves OOD generalization by learning richer features.

problem Improving feature learning for out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization.
method Feature Augmented Training (FeAT) iteratively augments and retains features from different subsets of training data.
result FeAT effectively learns richer features, boosting OOD performance.

Monotonic relationship found between in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance.

problem Understanding performance of machine learning models under distribution shifts.
method Analyzing ridge-regularized models and linear inverse problems under covariate shift.
result Monotonic relationship between in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance for certain models.

Paper provides a mathematical model for transformer ICL out-of-distribution generalization.

problem Understanding when transformer in-context learning can generalize beyond pre-training data.
method Minimal mathematical model of linear regression tasks with low-rank covariance matrices, analyzing distribution shifts as varying angles between subspaces.
result Transformers can generalize to all angle shifts if pre-training tasks are drawn from a union of subspaces, but not from a single Gaussian.

The paper highlights AI brittleness and the need for robust testing out-of-distribution performance.

problem The brittleness of AI systems, especially Deep Neural Networks, limits their reliability and certification.
method Analysis of AI brittleness and OOD performance, emphasizing the need for resilience and improved evaluation methods.
result AI systems are more failure-prone than certified in critical systems, and OOD performance falls off gradually.

Sharp analysis of out-of-distribution error in overparameterized models with importance weights.

problem Understanding and quantifying the degradation of performance in overparameterized models when faced with underrepresented data.
method Sharp analysis of an overparameterized Gaussian mixture model with spurious features and cost-sensitive interpolating solutions incorporating importance weights.
result Characterization of a novel tradeoff between worst-case robustness and average accuracy as a function of importance weight magnitude.

A new algorithm detects out-of-distribution samples by concentrating them in feature space.

problem Building safe AI systems requires effective out-of-distribution detection.
method The paper proposes a novel algorithm based on the observation that OoD samples concentrate in feature space.
result The algorithm achieves state-of-the-art performance on various OoD detection benchmarks.

Accuracy on in-distribution data correlates with out-of-distribution data when data is noisy or contains nuisance features.

problem Correlation between in-distribution and out-of-distribution accuracy in noisy or feature-rich data.
method Analyzes the impact of noise and nuisance features on model performance.
result Accuracy on in-distribution and out-of-distribution data can become negatively correlated in noisy or feature-rich data.

A new metric predicts model performance on unseen data.

problem Predicting performance on out-of-distribution data without labels.
method Uses model predictions to pseudo-label data, trains a new model, and measures difference from in-distribution models.
result Empirically outperforms existing methods on image and text classification tasks.

Ensemble models struggle with detecting mild faults.

problem Difficulty in detecting Intermediate-Severity faults due to their resemblance to normal conditions.
method Extensive experiments with ensemble models to identify and address common pitfalls.
result Designing more effective ensemble models for IS fault detection and diagnosis.

New method MRI improves machine learning models' ability to generalize to unseen data.

problem Machine learning models often fail to generalize well to out-of-distribution data.
method Introduces a new notion of invariance (MRI) and a practical version (MRI-v1) to improve model generalization.
result MRI-v1 guarantees invariant predictors and outperforms IRM-v1 in various settings.

MPT improves CNN and energy-based models' OOD detection and generalization.

problem Challenging out-of-distribution detection in computer vision.
method Applying Maximum Probability Theorem as a regularization scheme in CNN and energy-based models.
result MPT-based regularization strategy stabilizes and improves generalization and robustness of base models.

Medix uses the median to detect outliers from unlabeled data for robust OOD detection.

problem Challenges in using unlabeled data for OOD detection due to mixed InD and OOD samples.
method Introduces Medix, a framework using the median operation to identify outliers from unlabeled data.
result Empirical results show Medix outperforms existing methods in open-world settings.

Method enhances anomaly detection using contrastive learning and out-of-distribution data.

problem Improving anomaly detection in datasets with limited out-of-distribution data.
method Proposes a contrastive learning method that incorporates out-of-distribution data to enhance anomaly detection performance.
result The method significantly improves anomaly detection performance, even with limited out-of-distribution data.

Simple methods combine statistical tests for out-of-distribution detection.

problem Detecting data points not following the training distribution.
method Combining classical parametric tests (Rao's score test) and a typicality test.
result Combining Fisher's method of test statistics improves out-of-distribution detection accuracy.

Bayesian Gaussian Processes layer detects out-of-distribution data in medical imaging.

problem Detecting out-of-distribution data in medical imaging tasks.
method Parameter-efficient hierarchical convolutional Gaussian Processes in Wasserstein-2 space.
result Uncertainty estimates enable superior out-of-distribution detection compared to previous methods.

Study shows gMPNNs struggle with OOD link prediction in larger test graphs.

problem Inductive out-of-distribution link prediction in larger test graphs.
method Theoretical analysis and development of a gMPNN with structural pairwise embeddings.
result Structural node embeddings from gMPNNs converge to random guessing as test graphs grow.

Combining Bayesian deep learning and split conformal prediction affects out-of-distribution coverage.

problem Improving out-of-distribution coverage in multiclass image classification.
method Combining Bayesian deep learning with split conformal prediction methods.
result Combining methods can reduce out-of-distribution coverage in some cases.