The paper explores features from orderbooks to improve intraday electricity price forecasting.
problem Improving probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices.
method Extracted 384 features from orderbooks, selected powerful features, and benchmarked models across two countries and product types.
result Revealed an asymmetric generalization phenomenon in electricity price forecasting models.
New method learns interaction-aware orderbook representation for better intraday electricity price forecasting.
problem Challenges in probabilistic intraday electricity price forecasting due to dynamic orderbook microstructure.
method OrderFusion: an end-to-end and parameter-efficient probabilistic forecasting model that learns interaction-aware representation of buy-sell dynamics.
result Consistent improvements over conventional baselines in probabilistic forecasting of CID price indices.
A fast model estimates future prices from orderbook data.
problem Estimating future prices from orderbook data.
method Hyperdimensional vector Tsetlin machine framework for fast estimation.
result Demonstrated robust estimate of future prices.
Deep learning predicts Bitcoin spot price movements from order books.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency spot price movements from order book data.
method Temporal CNNs trained on 2-second prediction time horizon.
result 71% walk-forward accuracy on coinbase data.
We identify and analyze statistical regularities and irregularities in the recent order flow of different NASDAQ stocks, focusing on the positions where orders are placed in the orderbook. This includes limit orders being placed outside of the spread, inside the spread and (effective) market orders. We find that limit …
Neural nets analyze crypto markets for multi-timeframe trading.
problem High-frequency trading in cryptocurrency markets.
method Multi-timeframe trend analysis and high-frequency direction prediction networks.
result Positive risk-adjusted returns through machine learning.
Study examines Bitcoin market fragmentation and price formation, revealing market leader-lagger dynamics and trading strategies.
problem Understanding price formation in fragmented Bitcoin markets at sub-second time scales.
method Utilized granular orderbook and trades data, constructed features, and trained linear models to explain market returns.
result Fee regime determines market leadership and profitability of taker strategies, maker strategies tested in real-world trading.
dYdX updates liquidity provider incentives to enhance trading efficiency.
problem Incentivizing liquidity providers to maintain efficient market structures.
method Analyzed various metrics (makerVolume, depths, spreads) and used historical trades to update the LP Incentives Programme.
result Updated the LP Incentives Programme to encourage more active and efficient liquidity.
Model simulates Perpetual Futures market with agent behavior.
problem Reproduce Perpetual Futures market dynamics.
method Agent-based model with heterogeneous agents trading via a central limit order book.
result Simulation accurately reproduces Perpetual Futures price pegging to Spot price.
PredictionMarketBench benchmarks trading agents on prediction markets.
problem Evaluating trading agents on prediction markets with realistic conditions.
method Deterministic replay of historical data, execution-realistic simulator, agent interface.
result Fee-aware algorithmic strategies outperform naive agents in volatile episodes.
The paper proposes a time-dependent Markov model for a limit order book.
problem Understanding the convergence of a limit order book to a more complex diffusion.
method A simple time-dependent Markov model is proposed, describing the arrival of different orders.
result Empirical studies verify the validity of the modeling assumptions for certain stocks.
ByteGen models LOB dynamics without tokenization, achieving realistic market metrics.
problem Modeling high-frequency LOB dynamics in finance.
method Autoregressive next-byte prediction on packed binary data, using H-Net architecture.
result Successfully reproduces stylized facts of financial markets.
In this paper we investigate the endogenous information contained in four liquidity variables at a five minutes time scale on equity markets around the world: the traded volume, the bid-ask spread, the volatility and the volume at first limits of the orderbook. In the spirit of Granger causality, we measure the level o…
Optimal trading is a recent field of research which was initiated by Almgren, Chriss, Bertsimas and Lo in the late 90's. Its main application is slicing large trading orders, in the interest of minimizing trading costs and potential perturbations of price dynamics due to liquidity shocks. The initial optimization frame…
Modeling liquidity risk in financial markets using agent-based simulation.
problem Understanding and quantifying the costs of buying or selling assets in financial markets.
method Agent-based modeling (ABM) with Monte Carlo simulations to calculate transaction costs and price impacts.
result Emergent price impacts without oversimplification, providing a realistic framework for liquidity risk.
Identifies features most relevant to concept drift in data.
problem Identifying features most relevant to concept drift.
method Distinguishing between drift inducing and faithfully drifting features; deriving minimal subsets of features to characterize drift.
result Derives a detection algorithm for concept drift.
Paper predicts EEG features from acoustic features using RNN and GAN.
problem Predicting EEG features from acoustic features.
method Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Generative Adversarial Network (GAN).
result Lower RMSE and normalized RMSE values compared to generating acoustic features from EEG features.
Introduces RFI for assessing feature importance relative to any subset of features.
problem Lack of nuanced feature importance computation.
method Generalizes PFI and CFI to assess relative feature importance.
result Derives general interpretation rules for RFI.
A single pre-trained agent guides feature selection using knockoffs.
problem Feature selection challenges in AI-readiness of data.
method Generates knockoff features and uses reinforcement learning.
result Optimal feature subset identified with reduced dependency on target variable.
Feature networks link ML features via graph structure for enhanced learning.
problem Enhancing feature expressiveness and learning efficiency in machine learning.
method Graph representation of feature vectors, leveraging Fourier and functional analysis.
result Feature networks enable novel, complex feature dependencies.
Approach for selecting features by discarding nuisance and correlated ones.
problem Large datasets with correlated and nuisance features.
method Laplacian score criterion, autoencoder architecture, concrete layer.
result Outperforms similar approaches in clustering performance.
New stability measures for similar features improve feature selection accuracy.
problem Existing stability measures fail to distinguish similar features in highly correlated datasets.
method Introduce new adjusted stability measures that consider feature similarities.
result One new stability measure considers highly similar features as interchangeable.
Counterexamples show HSIC feature selection misses critical features.
problem Feature selection using HSIC misses important features.
method Feature selection via HSIC maximization.
result HSIC feature selection can miss critical features.
This paper shows feature importance remains valid even in low-performing models.
problem Feature importance validity in low-performing machine learning models for biomedical data.
method Experiments with synthetic and real biomedical datasets to compare feature rank stability under different data reductions.
result Feature importance can be maintained even at low performance levels if data size is adequate.
New algorithms select and rank features from MTS without feature extraction.
problem Feature extraction step for MTS classification.
method Directly computes similarity between time series and assesses cluster structure matching labels.
result Techniques match labels well without feature extraction.
Pipeline learns topological features for protein stability prediction.
problem Predicting protein stability using topological features.
method Data-driven method to learn topological features, comparing with expert features.
result Topological features achieve 92%-99% of SME-based models' performance.
In text classification, dictionaries can be used to define human-comprehensible features. We propose an improvement to dictionary features called smoothed dictionary features. These features recognize document contexts instead of n-grams. We describe a principled methodology to solicit dictionary features from a teache…
FeAT improves OOD generalization by learning richer features.
problem Improving feature learning for out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization.
method Feature Augmented Training (FeAT) iteratively augments and retains features from different subsets of training data.
result FeAT effectively learns richer features, boosting OOD performance.
The paper defines and analyzes feature complexity in DNNs, proposing metrics for feature disentanglement and evaluation.
problem Understanding and quantifying the complexity of features learned by deep neural networks.
method Proposes a definition and disentanglement of feature complexity orders, introduces metrics for reliability and over-fitting evaluation.
result Establishes a relationship between feature complexity and DNN performance, and proposes a generic mathematical tool for network compression and knowledge distillation.
Conventional mutual information (MI) based feature selection (FS) methods are unable to handle heterogeneous feature subset selection properly because of data format differences or estimation methods of MI between feature subset and class label. A way to solve this problem is feature transformation (FT). In this study,…
A new method for measuring conditional feature importance using generative models.
problem Challenges in evaluating feature importance given other feature values.
method Adversarial Random Forest (ARF) for generating on-manifold data points.
result cARFi method yields robust importance scores adaptable for various feature importance notions.
Existing feature selection methods fail to properly account for interactions between features when evaluating feature subsets. In this paper, we attempt to remedy this issue by using orthogonal variance decomposition to evaluate features. The orthogonality of the decomposition allows us to directly calculate the total …
CAN approximates explicit feature interactions for CTR prediction.
problem Learning explicit feature interactions from sparse features.
method Co-Action Network approximates explicit pairwise feature interactions without introducing too many additional parameters.
result CAN outperforms state-of-the-art CTR models and the cartesian product method.
Proposes a new feature selection method integrating feature relationships.
problem Feature selection in machine learning models.
method Integrates feature-feature and feature-target relationships via penalized mRMR.
result Correctly identifies inactive features, reducing false discoveries.
Online feature selection has been an active research area in recent years. We propose a novel diverse online feature selection method based on Determinantal Point Processes (DPP). Our model aims to provide diverse features which can be composed in either a supervised or unsupervised framework. The framework aims to pro…
New method disentangles feature importance scores in machine learning.
problem Misinterpretation of feature importance scores due to interactions and dependencies.
method Derive DIP (Disentangled Importance) decomposition of feature importance scores.
result DIP decomposition uniquely separates standalone contributions from interactions and dependencies.
Feature selection has been proven a powerful preprocessing step for high-dimensional data analysis. However, most state-of-the-art methods tend to overlook the structural correlation information between pairwise samples, which may encapsulate useful information for refining the performance of feature selection. Moreove…
GRANITE unifies feature-based explanation methods to reduce disagreement.
problem Disagreement among feature-based explanation methods.
method GRANITE partitions feature space into regions minimizing interaction and distribution influences.
result Unified and consistent feature explanations.
Orthogonal random features approximate a Bessel kernel, offering sharper bounds than random Fourier features.
problem Approximating Gaussian kernel efficiently for large datasets.
method Use of Haar orthogonal matrices to construct orthogonal random features and analyze their bias and variance.
result Orthogonal random features approximate a Bessel kernel, not the Gaussian kernel, with sharper bounds.
New methods for assessing and visualizing feature groups in machine learning models.
problem Lack of methods for interpreting feature groups in machine learning models.
method Permutation-based, refitting, and Shapley-based techniques for grouped feature importance. Introduced a sequential procedure for identifying stable feature combinations. Developed a combined features effect plot.
result Effective methods for assessing and visualizing the importance and effect of feature groups in machine learning models.
Learning with streaming data has attracted much attention during the past few years. Though most studies consider data stream with fixed features, in real practice the features may be evolvable. For example, features of data gathered by limited-lifespan sensors will change when these sensors are substituted by new ones…
Supporting evidence for adaptive feature program across diverse models.
problem Analyzing feature learning in neural networks.
method Over-parameterized sequence models and feature error measure (FEM).
result FEM is decreasing during training of adaptive feature models.
Hermite polynomials improve private data generation by reducing feature count.
problem Infinite-dimensional features in kernel mean embedding are impractical for private data generation.
method Replace random features with Hermite polynomial features, leveraging their ordered nature.
result Hermite polynomial features yield a more accurate approximation of kernel mean embedding with fewer features.
Feature selection is a technique to screen out less important features. Many existing supervised feature selection algorithms use redundancy and relevancy as the main criteria to select features. However, feature interaction, potentially a key characteristic in real-world problems, has not received much attention. As a…
Paper defines feature impact and importance from data, not models.
problem Misinterpretation of feature importance as impact leads to flawed insights.
method Mathematical definitions of feature impact and importance derived from partial dependence curves.
result Feature rankings by these definitions are competitive with existing techniques.
Learning with feature evolution studies the scenario where the features of the data streams can evolve, i.e., old features vanish and new features emerge. Its goal is to keep the model always performing well even when the features happen to evolve. To tackle this problem, canonical methods assume that the old features …
NGMs create mirrored features to assess neural network feature importance.
problem Lack of feature relevance information in DNNs limits their applicability.
method Structured perturbation and kernel-based conditional dependence measure for feature importance evaluation.
result Controls feature selection error rate and maintains high selection power with correlated features.
Inf-FS selects features by graph paths, ranking them for infinite feature sets.
problem Feature selection in large datasets with relevance and redundancy.
method Graph-based feature selection with infinite paths, evaluating feature subsets using matrix power series and Markov chains.
result Inf-FS outperforms other methods in various feature selection scenarios.