Paper extends transfer learning for decision rules, improving treatment rule estimation.
problem Estimating optimal individualized treatment rules under changing conditions.
method Bayes decision rules and low-dimensional empirical risk minimization.
result Consistent estimators and risk bounds established under mild conditions.
A new method learns interpretable decision rules using submodular optimization.
problem Learning interpretable decision rules from data.
method Submodular optimization approach for selecting rules from a large set.
result The method effectively learns interpretable rule sets from real datasets.
This work proposes optimal decision rules for hierarchical classifiers to better align with evaluation metrics.
problem Heuristic decision rules in hierarchical classification do not align with evaluation metrics.
method Derives optimal decision rules for various prediction settings, focusing on hierarchical hFβ scores. result Optimal decision rules enhance the performance and reliability of hierarchical classifiers.
MOSS optimizes decision rules for accuracy and stability.
problem Constructing stable sets of decision rules.
method Multi-objective optimization framework incorporating sparsity, accuracy, and stability.
result MOSS outperforms state-of-the-art rule ensembles in predictive performance and stability.
LI-ITR combines flexible ML with interpretable approximations for personalized treatment rules.
problem Combining flexibility and interpretability in personalized treatment rules.
method Uses variational autoencoders and a mixture of interpretable experts.
result Accurately recovers true local coefficients and optimal treatment strategies.
Recent exploration of optimal individualized decision rules (IDRs) for patients in precision medicine has attracted a lot of attention due to the heterogeneous responses of patients to different treatments. In the existing literature of precision medicine, an optimal IDR is defined as a decision function mapping from t…
New decision-theoretic characterization separates belief and decision posteriors.
problem Understanding the conditions under which loss-based updating coincides with Bayesian updating.
method Decision-theoretic approach to distinguish belief and decision posteriors.
result Generalized Bayes coincides with ordinary Bayesian updating only if the loss is proportional to negative log-likelihood.
RISE learns decisions with sensitive variables, improving worst-case outcomes.
problem Uncertainty and bias in decisions due to delayed sensitive variable data.
method Incorporates sensitive variables offline but not at deployment, using quantile or infimum optimization.
result Improves worst-case outcomes for individuals affected by unavailable sensitive variables.
FIRE extracts interpretable rules from tree ensembles.
problem Building sparse and interpretable rule sets from tree ensembles.
method Optimization-based framework with fusion regularization and sparsity-inducing penalties.
result FIRE outperforms state-of-the-art rule ensemble algorithms.
An online decision-making algorithm using stochastic gradient descent for big data.
problem Efficiently updating decision rules in online decision making with big data.
method Stochastic gradient descent for online updates, asymptotic normality of estimators.
result Asymptotic normality of parameter and value estimators, enabling statistical inference.
Novel approach for creating interpretable classifiers using bilevel optimization of split-rules in NLDTs.
problem Creating highly accurate and easily interpretable classifiers for practical applications.
method Representing classifiers as assemblies of simple mathematical rules using NLDTs with evolutionary bilevel optimization.
result The approach ensures interpretability while achieving high accuracy on various classification problems.
In many predictive decision-making scenarios, such as credit scoring and academic testing, a decision-maker must construct a model that accounts for agents' propensity to "game" the decision rule by changing their features so as to receive better decisions. Whereas the strategic classification literature has previously…
Two algorithms for interpreting and boosting tree-based models using rule covering.
problem Interpreting and boosting tree-based ensemble methods.
method Mathematical programming models constructed from decision tree rules.
result Selects a few rules that closely match the accuracy of the model.
As we rely more and more on machine learning models for real-life decision-making, being able to understand and trust the predictions becomes ever more important. Local explainer models have recently been introduced to explain the predictions of complex machine learning models at the instance level. In this paper, we p…
New approach tackles decision-making under predictions that shape outcomes.
problem Challenges in learning optimal decision rules when predictions influence outcomes.
method Introduces performative omniprediction, a predictor that encodes optimal decision rules for multiple objectives.
result Efficient performative omnipredictors exist under a natural restriction of outcome performativity.
Dynamic treatment regimes are of growing interest across the clinical sciences as these regimes provide one way to operationalize and thus inform sequential personalized clinical decision making. A dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of decision rules, with a decision rule per stage of clinical intervention; each de…
Proposes a new decision rule for continuous treatments.
problem Developing personalized treatment recommendations for continuous treatments.
method Jump interval-learning method to estimate conditional mean of outcomes.
result Optimal interval-valued decision rule (I2DR) for continuous treatments.
GEAR uses auxiliary data to estimate optimal decisions in studies with limited primary outcomes.
problem Estimating optimal decisions when primary outcomes are not available in experimental samples.
method GEAR uses augmented inverse propensity weighting to estimate optimal decisions based on auxiliary data.
result GEAR estimators and value estimators have established asymptotic properties and are validated in simulations and a real application.
Develops optimal decision-making framework for uncertain counterfactuals.
problem Ensuring reliability of predictions in high-stakes decisions.
method Policy-Coupled Risk-Averse Conformal Prediction (PC-RACP).
result Optimal prediction sets for counterfactual decisions with valid coverage.
Optimal allocation of human effort to correct AI assessments in decision-making.
problem How to allocate costly human effort to correct noisy or biased AI-generated assessments.
method Decision-theoretic framework treating AI assessments as signals and human judgments as costly information. Developed estimation procedures under nonparametric and linear models.
result Our approach substantially outperforms LLM-only predictions and achieves performance comparable to full human review while using only 20-30% of the human information.
The paper develops deep learning models for personalized treatment rules in survival analysis.
problem Deriving optimal treatment rules for bivariate survival outcomes in randomized trials.
method Adaptive prediction-powered learning using deep neural networks and stochastic policies.
result Maximizes joint survival probability beyond fixed time points (t1,t2). New framework optimizes decisions under uncertainty considering causal and continuous data.
problem Optimizing decisions under uncertain distributions with causal and continuous data structures.
method Developed a framework using Causal Sinkhorn DRO with Soft Regression Forest decision rules.
result Framework provides interpretable and tractable decision rules for optimizing under uncertainty.
The free energy functional has recently been proposed as a variational principle for bounded rational decision-making, since it instantiates a natural trade-off between utility gains and information processing costs that can be axiomatically derived. Here we apply the free energy principle to general decision trees tha…
Proposes a framework to create fair IDRs by enforcing demographic parity constraints.
problem Discrimination in IDRs trained on biased data.
method Incorporates DP and CDP constraints into IDR estimation.
result Theoretically optimal IDRs can be efficiently obtained through perturbations.
This paper improves fraud prevention rule sets in fintech by generating diverse rules and finding Pareto-optimal subsets.
problem Improving the quality and flexibility of fraud prevention rule sets in fintech.
method Introducing SpectralRules for generating diverse rules, and PORS for finding Pareto-optimal subsets.
result SpectralRules generates diverse rules that improve the quality of final rule subsets.
A novel gradient-based method optimizes decision trees for complex tasks.
problem Training decision trees with arbitrary differentiable loss functions.
method Gradient-based optimization using first and second derivatives of loss functions.
result Improves accuracy and flexibility in decision tree optimization.
We present the design and implementation of a custom discrete optimization technique for building rule lists over a categorical feature space. Our algorithm produces rule lists with optimal training performance, according to the regularized empirical risk, with a certificate of optimality. By leveraging algorithmic bou…
The paper proposes multicalibration to improve matching in graphs with imperfect predictors.
problem Finding the best matching in graphs with imperfect predictors.
method Introduces multicalibration as a fairness notion to ensure unbiasedness on protected sets of contexts.
result Constructing a multicalibrated predictor that outperforms standard optimal rules in matching algorithms.
Consider the online testing of a stream of hypotheses where a real--time decision must be made before the next data point arrives. The error rate is required to be controlled at {all} decision points. Conventional \emph{simultaneous testing rules} are no longer applicable due to the more stringent error constraints and…
A new decision tree induction method using MIP for faster optimization.
problem Optimizing decision tree split rules for better classification performance.
method Mixed-integer programming (MIP) for Gini reduction maximization, efficient search algorithm.
result bsnsing trees outperform other tree models in new case discrimination.
Paper proposes a new method for SP with covariates using PADR and ERM.
problem Stochastic programming with covariate information.
method Empirical risk minimization (ERM) with nonconvex piecewise affine decision rules (PADR).
result The method provides theoretical consistency and computational tractability for nonconvex SP problems.
Bayesian neural networks are shown to be minimax and admissible under certain conditions.
problem Optimality of Bayesian neural networks in deep learning models.
method Analysis of decision rules induced by BNNs in the normal location model under quadratic loss.
result A hyperprior on the effective output variance yields a minimax and admissible decision rule.
Reinforcement Learning improves insulin bolus decisions for type-I diabetes patients.
problem Optimal insulin bolus decisions for type-I diabetes patients are not well-established.
method Applied Reinforcement Learning to simulated T1DM data.
result Optimal bolus rule differs from standard advisors and can prevent hypoglycemia.
NeuRules learns interpretable rule lists from data without pre-discretization.
problem Interpretable rule lists for high-stakes decisions in machine learning.
method Neuro-symbolic continuous optimization with temperature annealing.
result NeuRules outperforms existing methods in learning interpretable rule lists.
This paper uses NLDT to find interpretable control rules from complex DRL policies.
problem Complex, non-interpretable policies from black-box AI methods.
method Evolutionary optimization of NLDT for hierarchical control rules.
result Interpretable control rules with similar performance to black-box DRL.
From doctors diagnosing patients to judges setting bail, experts often base their decisions on experience and intuition rather than on statistical models. While understandable, relying on intuition over models has often been found to result in inferior outcomes. Here we present a new method, select-regress-and-round, f…
This article introduces a framework to estimate the value of evidence-based decision making.
problem Lack of empirical tools to assess the value of evidence-based decision making and optimize statistical precision.
method Empirical framework using parametric and nonparametric empirical Bayes methods.
result The value of statistical evidence depends on how organizations translate it into policy decisions.
Sparse oblique decision tree improves security rules for renewable power systems.
problem Identifying secure operating conditions in power systems with high renewable energy.
method Sparse weighted oblique decision tree to learn and embed linear security rules.
result The method significantly increases secure states and reduces solution time.
R2N learns interpretable rules and literals from numerical features.
problem Lack of expressive vocabulary in rule-based decision models.
method Relational Rule Network (R2N) learns literals and rules end-to-end.
result Learned literals improve prediction accuracy and rule conciseness.
Autonomous driving decision-making is a great challenge due to the complexity and uncertainty of the traffic environment. Combined with the rule-based constraints, a Deep Q-Network (DQN) based method is applied for autonomous driving lane change decision-making task in this study. Through the combination of high-level …
The paper addresses decision making with partially calibrated forecasts, offering a robust approach.
problem Developing a decision-making strategy for forecasts that are only partially calibrated.
method A minimax approach to mapping predictions to actions, considering worst-case distributions.
result The minimax optimal decision rule is to trust predictions and act accordingly, even for partially calibrated forecasts.
We present nonparametric algorithms for estimating optimal individualized treatment rules. The proposed algorithms are based on the XGBoost algorithm, which is known as one of the most powerful algorithms in the machine learning literature. Our main idea is to model the conditional mean of clinical outcome or the decis…
Advances rule-based multi-label classification using conformal prediction.
problem Improving accuracy and decision making in multi-label classification.
method Combines conformal prediction with rule-based learning to provide natural conformity scores and calibrate rule assessments.
result Calibrated conformity scores enhance prediction accuracy and decision making.
Study wSAA for contextual decisions, improving uncertainty quantification under computational constraints.
problem Uncertainty quantification limitations in wSAA for contextual stochastic optimization.
method Establish central limit theorems and asymptotic-normality-based confidence intervals for optimal costs.
result Over-optimizing can mitigate misspecification and preserve asymptotic normality, albeit at a slower convergence rate.
New method for online statistical inference in contextual bandits using SGD.
problem Online decision-making in contextual bandits with statistical inference.
method Weighted stochastic gradient descent for adaptive data collection.
result Asymptotic normality of the parameter estimator with improved efficiency.
The 20/60/20 rule improves risk management and portfolio optimization in finance.
problem Understanding and managing financial data with heavy tails.
method Application of the 20/60/20 rule to stock market data, development of new measures for tail heaviness, and integration into portfolio optimization.
result The 20/60/20 rule enhances robustness and performance in portfolio optimization.
Prior-weighted logistic regression has become a standard tool for calibration in speaker recognition. Logistic regression is the optimization of the expected value of the logarithmic scoring rule. We generalize this via a parametric family of proper scoring rules. Our theoretical analysis shows how different members of…
Optimizes football play calls using reinforcement learning.
problem Maximizing game outcomes with limited data.
method Reinforcement learning to optimize decision-making.
result Optimized play calls lead to better game outcomes.