Active inference minimizes expected free energy for optimal behavior.
problem Understanding and optimizing behavior in complex systems.
method Combines Bayesian decision theory, optimal Bayesian design, and the free energy principle.
result Active inference emerges as a unified framework for information-seeking, utility maximization, and goal-directed behavior.
Study optimal investment and consumption in incomplete markets with nonlinear expectations.
problem Utility maximization in incomplete markets with general constraints.
method Utilizes g-martingale method to solve optimization problem for various utility functions. result Characterizes optimal investment-consumption strategy through quadratic BSDE solutions.
The paper confirms a conjecture about optimal expected utility in discrete-time markets approaching a continuous-time model.
problem Analyzing the convergence of optimal expected utility in discrete-time markets to a continuous-time model.
method Examined a sequence of discrete-time economies generated by scaled random walks, and compared their optimal expected utilities to the continuous-time Black-Scholes-Merton model.
result The conjecture holds for utility functions with asymptotic elasticity strictly less than one, but fails for elasticity equal to one.
This paper solves a coinsurance problem using fuzzy numbers and expected utility operators.
problem Formulating a coinsurance problem in the possibilistic setting of expected utility operators.
method Developed a framework using expected utility operators to model risk aversion and solve the coinsurance problem.
result Various formulas for the optimal T-coinsurance rate are derived for specific utility functions and fuzzy numbers. The paper confirms a conjecture about optimal expected utility in markets with insider information.
problem Optimal expected utility in markets with insider information.
method An extension of the Black-Scholes-Merton model with a sequence of discrete-time economies.
result Optimal expected utility converges to the classic model when conditions are met.
GBC methods compute expected utility without needing the model's density.
problem Computing expected utility in complex models.
method Density-free generative method using quantile neural estimator.
result Efficient estimation of expected utility from simulated data.
This paper discusses the sensitivity of the long-term expected utility of optimal portfolios for an investor with constant relative risk aversion. Under an incomplete market given by a factor model, we consider the utility maximization problem with long-time horizon. The main purpose is to find the long-term sensitivit…
Optimal portfolios are found for a wide range of utility functions under hyperbolic returns.
problem Portfolio optimization under expected utility criterion for large portfolios.
method Analytical expressions for optimal portfolios under hyperbolic return distributions and various utility functions.
result The two-fund separation holds true for a broad class of utility functions.
Optimizes portfolios with utility theory, diversification, and leverage.
problem Finding optimal portfolio allocation strategies.
method Utility theory, exponential and logarithmic utilities, compound probability distributions, maximum expected utility, generalized mean-variance.
result Enhanced portfolio allocation strategies with natural explanations.
A classical portfolio theory deals with finding the optimal proportion in which an agent invests a wealth in a risk-free asset and a probabilistic risky asset. Formulating and solving the problem depend on how the risk is represented and how, combined with the utility function defines a notion of expected utility. In t…
We consider an infinite dimensional optimization problem motivated by mathematical economics. Within the celebrated "Arbitrage Pricing Model", we use probabilistic and functional analytic techniques to show the existence of optimal strategies for investors who maximize their expected utility.
A new method extends Bayesian optimization to more models and utilities.
problem Extending Bayesian optimization to a broader class of models and utilities.
method Likelihood-free Bayesian Optimization (LFBO) which directly models the acquisition function without separate inference.
result LFBO outperforms state-of-the-art black-box optimization methods on real-world problems.
Optimal financial strategies minimize risk under uncertain models.
problem Maximizing utility in financial markets with model uncertainty.
method Optimized strategies converge to those with minimal norm as uncertainty increases.
result Optimal strategies with minimal norm emerge as uncertainty grows.
Proves weak convergence equals mean convergence in GGC.
problem Proving convergence in GGC distributions.
method Using generalized gamma convolution (GGC) and expected utility maximization.
result Weak convergence implies mean convergence in GGC.
Study examines insurance demand under ambiguity aversion.
problem Demand for insurance indemnification under ambiguity aversion.
method Characterizes optimal indemnity functions using Maxmin-Expected Utility model.
result Optimal indemnity functions involve full insurance on low-probability events.
Study examines how risk tolerance impacts long-term investment returns.
problem Understanding the impact of risk tolerance on investment returns over time.
method Used Malliavin calculus and Hansen--Scheinkman decomposition.
result Risk aversion affects long-term investment utility through eigenvalues and eigenfunctions.
Motivated by the AIG bailout case in the financial crisis of 2007-2008, we consider an insurer who wants to maximize the expected utility of the terminal wealth by selecting optimal investment and risk control strategies. The insurer's risk process is modelled by a jump-diffusion process and is negatively correlated wi…
Gradient noise improves privacy-protected optimization performance.
problem Improving privacy in convex optimization while maintaining utility.
method We analyze the effect of gradient perturbation on differentially private convex optimization, focusing on expected curvature.
result Gradient perturbation can achieve a significantly improved utility guarantee for differentially private convex optimization.
Possibilistic risk theory starts from the hypothesis that risk is modelled by fuzzy numbers. In particular, in a possibilistic portfolio choice problem, the return of a risky asset will be a fuzzy number. The expected utility operators have been introduced in a previous paper to build an abstract theory of possibilisti…
Study optimizes insurance investment to maximize utility across all capital levels.
problem Maximizing expected utility across all capital levels in an insurance company's investment strategy.
method Dynamic Programming Principle and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation to prove existence of optimal strategy.
result Existence of optimal investment strategy proven under certain conditions.
Investment and consumption strategy optimized under uncertain conditions.
problem Optimal investment and consumption under logarithmic utility and uncertainty model.
method Characterized using quadratic BSDE.
result Optimal solution found.
Study preferences over uncertain time payments, finds growth-optimality better than expected utility theory.
problem Understanding how people make decisions with uncertain timing of payments.
method Normative model of growth-optimality, revisiting experimental evidence on time lotteries.
result Growth-optimality better explains experimental data on time lotteries than expected discounted utility theory.
Investor optimizes portfolio to manage risk with heavy-tailed stock returns.
problem Managing risk in portfolios with heavy-tailed stock returns.
method Markov Decision Process and dynamic programming for optimal strategies and value function.
result Optimal strategies and value function maximizing expected utility for both parametric and non-parametric distributions.
In this paper we study a robust expected utility maximization problem with random endowment in discrete time. We give conditions under which an optimal strategy exists and derive a dual representation for the optimal utility. Our approach is based on a general representation result for monotone convex functionals, a fu…
The paper tackles optimal policy learning with asymmetric counterfactual utilities in healthcare decisions.
problem Learning optimal policies from observed data with asymmetric counterfactual utilities.
method The approach involves identifying and minimizing the maximum expected utility loss using statistical decision theory and solving intermediate classification problems.
result One can learn minimax loss decision rules from observed data.
The paper compares different risk measures for optimal portfolio strategies.
problem Finding optimal portfolio strategies with various risk measures.
method Applying the Black-Scholes model and Martingale method to solve the static optimization problem.
result Comparison of different risk measures' performances on terminal wealths and optimal strategies.
Examines optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes, finding risk seeking in certain subdomains.
problem Optimal risk sharing with empirically realistic risk attitudes.
method Allows for risk-seeking agents, generalizes expected utility, and uses counter-monotonic improvement theorem.
result First empirical results on optimal risk sharing with realistic risk attitudes.
We consider market players with tail-risk-seeking behaviour as exemplified by the S-shaped utility introduced by Kahneman and Tversky. We argue that risk measures such as value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are ineffective in constraining such players. We show that, in many standard market models, product d…
Investigates conditions for risk or utility functionals to be sensitive to large losses.
problem Conditions for risk or utility functionals to be sensitive to large losses.
method Analyzes sensitivity to large losses for various risk and utility functionals.
result Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall generally fail to be sensitive to large losses, but expected utility functionals and certain adjusted versions are sensitive.
We develop a general theory of convex duality for certain singular control problems, taking the abstract results by Kramkov and Schachermayer (1999) for optimal expected utility from nonnegative random variables to the level of optimal expected utility from increasing, adapted controls. The main contributions are the f…
Study shows equivalence of four risk constraints in non-concave optimization problems.
problem Investigating risk constraints in non-concave optimization for financial companies.
method Analytical solutions for four risk constraints (ES, EDS, VaR, AVaR) under non-concave optimization.
result All four risk constraints lead to the same optimal solution, differing from concave optimization.
Expands Bayesian experiment design framework to account for model discrepancies.
problem Model misspecification in Bayesian optimal experiment design.
method Introduces Expected General Information Gain and Expected Discriminatory Information criteria.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and detection capabilities in experiment design.
We consider a discrete-time financial market model with finite time horizon and give conditions which guarantee the existence of an optimal strategy for the problem of maximizing expected terminal utility. Equivalent martingale measures are constructed using optimal strategies.
In this paper we investigate the expected terminal utility maximization approach for a dynamic stochastic portfolio optimization problem. We solve it numerically by solving an evolutionary Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation which is transformed by means of the Riccati transformation. We examine the dependence of the resu…
MaxEnt RL optimizes decision-making in uncertain environments.
problem MaxEnt RL optimizes decision-making in uncertain environments.
method Formal analysis of MaxEnt RL in POMDPs and adversarial reward games.
result MaxEnt RL optimally solves certain classes of control problems with uncertain reward functions.
Optimal insurance strategy for maximizing RDEU under various premium principles.
problem Maximizing a risk-averse individual's RDEU with insurance priced by a distortion-deviation principle.
method Proved necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimal solution, considered ambiguity orders, and analyzed specific examples.
result Conditions for no insurance or deductible insurance to be optimal.
Assuming that agents' preferences satisfy first-order stochastic dominance, we show how the Expected Utility paradigm can rationalize all optimal investment choices: the optimal investment strategy in any behavioral law-invariant (state-independent) setting corresponds to the optimum for an expected utility maximizer w…
The paper solves an insurance problem using mean-variance and rank-dependent utility theory.
problem Formulating and solving an insurance problem with rank-dependent utility and mean-variance premium principle.
method Formulated as a non-concave maximization problem, then turned into a concave quantile optimization problem, solved using calculus of variations.
result An optimal insurance contract is derived and numerically computed.
This paper investigates the problem of maximizing expected terminal utility in a discrete-time financial market model with a finite horizon under non-dominated model uncertainty. We use a dynamic programming framework together with measurable selection arguments to prove that under mild integrability conditions, an opt…
Optimizes investment under uncertain time horizons with non-concave utility.
problem Optimizing investment decisions with non-concave utility and uncertain time horizons.
method Established necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality, suggested recursive procedure for non-concave utility.
result Optimal investment strategies under uncertain time horizons exhibit multimodal distribution, indicating flexibility in switching between local maximizers.
We investigate optimal consumption problems for a Black-Scholes market under uniform restrictions on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for logarithmic utility functions. We find the solutions in terms of a dynamic strategy in explicit form, which can be compared and interpreted. This paper continues our previous wor…
Optimal insurance policy for exponential utility maximization with convex premium calculation.
problem Maximizing terminal wealth utility with exponential utility function and convex premium formula.
method Necessary condition for optimal indemnity, numerical algorithm to compute it, convergence proof.
result Numerical algorithm converges to unique optimal indemnity.
We consider an arbitrage-free, discrete time and frictionless market. We prove that an investor maximising the expected utility of her terminal wealth can always find an optimal investment strategy provided that her dissatisfaction of infinite losses is infinite and her utility function is non-decreasing, continuous an…
VES-Gamma adapts EI using information-theoretic principles.
problem Optimizing black-box functions using Bayesian optimization.
method Variational Entropy Search (VES) and VES-Gamma algorithm.
result VES-Gamma improves EI by incorporating information-theoretic concepts.
We consider the problem of maximizing expected utility from terminal wealth in models with stochastic factors. Using martingale methods and a conditioning argument, we determine the optimal strategy for power utility under the assumption that the increments of the asset price are independent conditionally on the factor…
This paper solves robust utility maximization with unknown claim dependencies.
problem Investor optimizes utility in the presence of an intractable contingent claim.
method Quantile optimization approach, transforming dynamic problem into static concave optimization.
result Optimal payoffs depend on ambiguity attitude, market conditions, and claim characteristics.
Global optimization in Bayesian inference yields little additional benefit.
problem Improving psychometric parameter estimation using global optimization strategies.
method Experimental simulations comparing myopic and global strategies in multiple models.
result Global optimization strategies provide negligible additional utility improvement beyond the immediate next steps.
Most decision theories, including expected utility theory, rank dependent utility theory and cumulative prospect theory, assume that investors are only interested in the distribution of returns and not in the states of the economy in which income is received. Optimal payoffs have their lowest outcomes when the economy …