arXiv research

We explain a persistent cost-of-carry spread in EUA market and suggest ECB policy change.

We study the relationship between price spread, volatility and trading volume. We find that spread forms as a result of interplay between order liquidity and order impact. When trading volume is small adding more liquidity helps improve price accuracy and reduce spread, but after some point additional liquidity begins …

Paper models and forecasts intra-day electricity price spreads.

Simulates DeLend Platform behavior to optimize operational parameters.

DeFi exploits lead to reduced CP spreads, contrary to contagion hypothesis.

This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast electricity price spreads between different hours of the day. This supports an optimal day ahead storage and discharge schedule, and thereby facilitates a bidding strategy for a merchant arbitrage fac…

Optimal timing strategy for mean-reverting price spreads.

Quantum theory explains price dynamics in financial markets, capturing bid-ask spread and ergodicity.

The paper uses daily bond price data to estimate corporate default spreads, improving credit risk assessment.

Companies do not operate in a vacuum. As companies move towards an increasingly specialized production function and their reach is becoming truly global, their aptitude in managing and shaping their inter-organizational network is a determining factor in measuring their health. Current models of company financial healt…

A new model predicts bid-ask spread dynamics in financial markets.

Bid-ask spread is taken as an important measure of the financial market liquidity. In this article, we study the dynamics of the spread return and the spread volatility of four liquid stocks in the Chinese stock market, including the memory effect and the multifractal nature. By investigating the autocorrelation functi…

Optimizes lockdown strategies to balance economic activities and virus spread.

This paper approaches the definition and properties of dynamic convex risk measures through the notion of a family of concave valuation operators satisfying certain simple and credible axioms. Exploring these in the simplest context of a finite time set and finite sample space, we find natural risk-transfer and time-co…

The paper uses moment matching method for pricing spread options under Lévy models.

Model predicts BESS interactions and price impacts in energy markets.

We establish that, over certain ground fields, the set of osculating tangents of Cayley's ruled cubic surface gives rise to a (maximal partial) spread which is also a dual (maximal partial) spread. It is precisely the Betten-Walker spreads that allow for this construction. Every infinite Betten-Walker spread is not an …

We develop a theory of bid and ask price dynamics where the two prices form due to interaction of buy and sell orders. In this model the two prices are represented by eigenvalues of a 2x2 price operator corresponding to "bid" and "ask" eigenstates. Matrix elements of price operator fluctuate in time which results in ph…

We introduce nonlinear higher-order label spreading for semi-supervised learning.

Through a long-period analysis of the inter-temporal relations between the French markets for credit default swaps (CDS), shares and bonds between 2001 and 2008, this article shows how a financial innovation like CDS could heighten financial instability. After describing the operating principles of credit derivatives i…

In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often referred to as the interest rate spread variable, can be considered as a statistical m…

New approximations for Asian basket spread options using stochastic Taylor expansions.

The statistical properties of the bid-ask spread of a frequently traded Chinese stock listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are investigated using the limit-order book data. Three different definitions of spread are considered based on the time right before transactions, the time whenever the highest buying price or th…

Study analyzes price response and spread impact in foreign exchange markets.

Machine learning fails to improve recession prediction with yield spread.

Model estimates LIBOR rates and finds COVID-19 spread spike due to credit risk.

Deep learning models predict COVID-19 spread.

The term structure of credit spreads is studied with an aim to predict its future movements. A completely new approach to tackle this problem is presented, which utilizes nonlinear parametric models. The Brain-Cousens regression model with five parameters is chosen to describe the term structure of credit spreads. Furt…

New model predicts credit spreads using stochastic CIR++ intensities.

GPR models epidemic spread on logarithmic scale.

We observe the effects of the three different events that cause spread changes in the order book, namely trades, deletions and placement of limit orders. By looking at the frequencies of the relative amounts of price changing events, we discover that deletions of orders open the bid-ask spread of a stock more often tha…

Model predicts bid and ask price dynamics with spread-dependent intensities.

We study the relaxation dynamics of the bid-ask spread and of the midprice after a sudden, large variation of the spread, corresponding to a temporary crisis of liquidity in a double auction financial market. We find that the spread decays very slowly to its normal value as a consequence of the strategic limit order pl…

Paper uses reinforcement learning to optimize bid-ask spreads in OTC markets.

We use high-frequency data of 1364 Chinese A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange to investigate the intraday patterns in the bid-ask spreads. The daily periodicity in the spread time series is confirmed by Lomb analysis and the intraday bid-ask spreads are found to exhibit $L$…

Paper forecasts recession indicators using yield spread models.

Random forest predicts catastrophe bond spreads with 93% accuracy.

The paper uses option theory to estimate corporate bond liquidity spreads.

The global crisis of 2008 provoked a heightened interest among scientists to study the phenomenon, its propagation and negative consequences. The process of modelling the spread of a virus is commonly used in epidemiology. Conceptually, the spread of a disease among a population is similar to the contagion process in e…

The paper prices energy spread options using a complex stochastic model.

In this work, we provide a framework linking microstructural properties of an asset to the tick value of the exchange. In particular, we bring to light a quantity, referred to as implicit spread, playing the role of spread for large tick assets, for which the effective spread is almost always equal to one tick. The rel…

Study of influenza A virus spread using mathematical equations.

For distributions $\mathbb{P}$ and $\mathbb{Q}$ with different supports or undefined densities, the divergence $\textrm{D}(\mathbb{P}||\mathbb{Q})$ may not exist. We define a Spread Divergence $\tilde{\textrm{D}}(\mathbb{P}||\mathbb{Q})$ on modified $\mathbb{P}$ and $\mathbb{Q}$ and describe sufficient conditions for t…

The paper explains how to construct a credit spread curve from bond prices.

Alternative closed-form formula for spread call option prices under log-normal models.

We identify and analyze statistical regularities and irregularities in the recent order flow of different NASDAQ stocks, focusing on the positions where orders are placed in the orderbook. This includes limit orders being placed outside of the spread, inside the spread and (effective) market orders. We find that limit …

New formula for efficient spread option pricing in copula markets.

We develop an efficient method to calibrate CDS spreads using asymptotic approximations.