OceanForecastBench offers a comprehensive benchmark for data-driven ocean forecasting models.
problem Lack of open-source, standardized benchmarks for data-driven ocean forecasting models.
method Proposes OceanForecastBench, a benchmark with high-quality data and evaluation pipeline.
result Offers the most comprehensive benchmarking framework for data-driven ocean forecasting.
Optimizes deep learning models for ocean dynamics using Fourier neural operators.
problem Efficiently training deep learning models for ocean dynamics with optimal hyperparameters.
method Multiobjective hyperparameter optimization with DeepHyper for Fourier neural operators.
result Optimal hyperparameters significantly improved model performance in ocean dynamics forecasting.
This article explores the concepts of ocean wave multivariate multistep forecasting, reconstruction and feature selection. We introduce recurrent neural network frameworks, integrated with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization and Elastic Net methods. We consider both short- and long-term forecasts and reconstruction, f…
Novel spatio-temporal LSTM model forecasts oceanic variables across sensors and scales.
problem Data sparsity and lack of connected spatial and temporal information in environmental datasets.
method SPATIAL LSTM architecture that learns across spatial and temporal scales.
result Framework accurately forecasts oceanic variables with comparable performance to state-of-the-art models.
New method predicts wave height exceedance probabilities.
problem Forecasting significant wave height to prevent coastal disasters.
method Point forecasting approach using cumulative distribution function.
result Proposed method outperforms existing approaches.
The forecasting and reconstruction of ocean and atmosphere dynamics from satellite observation time series are key challenges. While model-driven representations remain the classic approaches, data-driven representations become more and more appealing to benefit from available large-scale observation and simulation dat…
This study introduces a framework for the forecasting, reconstruction and feature engineering of multivariate processes along with its renewable energy applications. We integrate derivative-free optimization with an ensemble of sequence-to-sequence networks and design a new resampling technique called additive resampli…
Generative AI predicts Arctic sea ice dynamics over decades.
problem Reproducing realistic sea ice dynamics from days to decades is computationally challenging.
method Introduced GenSIM, a generative AI model trained on 20 years of sea-ice-ocean simulation data.
result Generative AI predicts realistic sea ice evolution for 30 years, capturing long-term trends and physical consistency.
Machine learning improves sub-seasonal climate forecasting, especially gradient boosting and deep learning.
problem Predicting climate variables like temperature and precipitation in 2-week to 2-month time scales.
method Carefully constructed feature representations and ML approaches including gradient boosting and deep learning.
result ML methods can outperform climatological baselines and improve prediction accuracy.
Understanding local currents in the North Atlantic region of the ocean is a key part of modelling heat transfer and global climate patterns. Satellites provide a surface signature of the temperature of the ocean with a high horizontal resolution while in situ autonomous probes supply high vertical resolution, but horiz…
Integro-difference equation (IDE) models describe the conditional dependence between the spatial process at a future time point and the process at the present time point through an integral operator. Nonlinearity or temporal dependence in the dynamics is often captured by allowing the operator parameters to vary tempor…
FNOs improve spatio-temporal forecasting without needing PDE details.
problem Complex spatio-temporal dynamics in physical and biological phenomena.
method Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs) for dynamic spatio-temporal modeling.
result FNO forecasts are accurate and capture complex real-world dependencies.
Enhances ocean floor mapping with adaptive uncertainty estimates.
problem Inaccurate bathymetric data for precise ocean modeling.
method Block-based conformal prediction with VQ-VAE architecture.
result Significant improvements in reconstruction quality and uncertainty estimation reliability.
Water managers in the western United States (U.S.) rely on longterm forecasts of temperature and precipitation to prepare for droughts and other wet weather extremes. To improve the accuracy of these longterm forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launch…
Model accurately gates ocean microbes from high-frequency flow cytometry data.
problem Gating of high-frequency flow cytometry data for ocean microbes is challenging.
method Trend filtered mixture of experts with smooth parameter variation.
result Model accurately matches human-annotated gating and corrects errors.
Gaussian processes improved for ocean current reconstruction and divergence identification.
problem Reconstructing ocean currents from sparse buoy data.
method Proposed a Helmholtz decomposition-based approach to Gaussian processes for better physical modeling.
result Improved inference on ocean currents and divergence identification with minimal computational cost.
Machine learning predicts seasonal precipitation for East Africa.
problem Predicting seasonal precipitation for East Africa using machine learning.
method Dimension reduction via EOFs, large-scale climate variability indices as features, interpretable ML algorithm.
result The ML approach shows significant positive skill in predicting precipitation for OND season, comparable to ECMWF forecasts.
Paper develops a new model for forecasting ocean currents.
problem Forecasting the Loop Current and its eddies for the Gulf of Mexico.
method Physics-informed Tensor-train ConvLSTM, incorporating prior physical knowledge.
result PITT-ConvLSTM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in volumetric velocity forecasting.
Deep learning model predicts wind-wave relationship.
problem Characterize ocean wave climate for engineering applications.
method Two-stage deep learning model: CNN for spatial features, LSTM for temporal dependencies.
result Predicts spatio-temporal relationship between wind and significant wave height.
Forecast dam inflow using sea surface feature weights.
problem Accurate dam inflow forecasting for flood mitigation.
method Extracted sea surface features, applied L2-norm ensemble weighting, used PCA and t-SNE for dimensionality reduction, and calibrated regression models.
result The proposed method improves predictor stability and accuracy in dam inflow forecasting.
OCEAN infers online task identities from context variables.
problem Online task inference for compositional tasks with context adaptation.
method Variational inference framework OCEAN models global and local context variables in a joint latent space.
result OCEAN provides more effective task inference with sequential context adaptation.
Physics-constrained deep learning predicts geophysical dynamics with boundedness.
problem Forecasting geophysical systems with hidden variables and incomplete observations.
method Physics-constrained neural ordinary differential equation (NODE) representations with boundedness constraints.
result The approach generalizes learned dynamics to arbitrary initial conditions.
NDI aims to forecast future natural disasters risk for insurers.
problem Increasing intensity and frequency of natural disasters.
method Develops a Natural Disasters Index (NDI) based on NOAA data.
result NDI forecasts future natural disasters risk for insurers.
BALLAST optimizes Lagrangian observer placement for ocean vector fields.
problem Optimizing Lagrangian observer placement for time-dependent ocean vector fields.
method Bayesian active learning with look-ahead amendment for sea-drifter trajectories using a physics-informed spatio-temporal Gaussian process surrogate model.
result Noticeable benefits of BALLAST-aided observer placement strategies on synthetic and high-fidelity ocean models.
SIMPGEN improves SWOT SSH data interpretation by removing noise and preserving fine-scale features.
problem Noisy data and limited fine-scale observations in oceanic processes.
method Simulation-Informed Metric and Prior for Generative Ensemble Networks (SIMPGEN) combining real SWOT observations with simulated reference data.
result SIMPGEN effectively removes noise, preserving fine-scale features better than existing neural methods.
Study uses echo-sounder buoys to analyze tuna schools' association with dFADs globally.
problem Understanding temporal trends of tuna schools' association to drifting objects.
method Applied Machine Learning to examine binary and regression outputs of tuna schools' colonization and disaggregation times.
result Median colonization and disaggregation times varied by ocean, with Pacific having longest soak and colonization times.
The paper develops sampling methods for ocean phenomena based on temperature and salinity measurements.
problem Improving oceanographic sampling with limited resources.
method Design criterion based on uncertainty in excursions of vector-valued Gaussian random fields.
result Demonstrates effective exploration of ambiguous regions for data-driven sampling.
Predicting illegal fishing on Patagonian Shelf using machine learning.
problem Improving detection of illegal fishing to conserve fish stocks.
method Combining vessel tracking data with oceanographic seascapes and machine learning models.
result Machine learning models predict illegal fishing with 69-96% confidence.
Model predicts phytoplankton subpopulations based on environmental factors.
problem Predicting phytoplankton dynamics under changing environmental conditions.
method Sparse mixture of multivariate regressions model.
result Identifies environmental covariates influencing phytoplankton subpopulations.
A big challenge in environmental monitoring is the spatiotemporal variation of the phenomena to be observed. To enable persistent sensing and estimation in such a setting, it is beneficial to have a time-varying underlying environmental model. Here we present a planning and learning method that enables an autonomous ma…
ConfEviSurrogate improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models hinders reliable analysis.
method Introduces ConfEviSurrogate, a novel model that learns evidential distributions, separates uncertainty sources, and provides reliable prediction intervals.
result Demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in various simulations.
In this pedagogical study, carried out by adopting standard mathematical methods of nonlinear dynamics, we have presented some simple analytical models to understand terminal behaviour in industrial growth. This issue has also been addressed from a dynamical systems perspective, with especial emphasis on the concept of…
Machine learning enhances ocean studies by analyzing sparse, multi-scale data.
problem Sparse, multi-scale ocean data limits traditional methods.
method Machine learning techniques applied to ocean observations, theory, and numerical simulations.
result ML can advance theoretical oceanographic exploration and numerical simulations.
This work builds an automated anomaly detection method for chaotic time series, and more concretely for turbulent, high-dimensional, ocean simulations. We solve this task by extending the Echo State Network by spatially aware input maps, such as convolutions, gradients, cosine transforms, et cetera, as well as a spatia…
New GPs model edge functions on complex networks, capturing divergence and curl.
problem Modeling flow data on networks with independent learning of Hodge components.
method Developed Hodge-compositional edge GPs using Hodge decomposition.
result Hodge-compositional edge GPs can represent any edge function and capture flow relevance.
The study uses machine learning to predict CAT bond coupons based on climate data.
problem Predicting CAT bond coupons using climate data.
method Combining climate indicators with machine learning models (random forest, gradient boosting, etc.).
result Extremely randomized trees achieved the lowest RMSE in predicting CAT bond coupons.
This work develops discrete Gaussian models for vector-valued data on triangular meshes.
problem Discrete representation of continuous vector-valued environmental data.
method Develops discrete intrinsic Gaussian processes for vector-valued data on triangular meshes using discrete differential operators.
result Models can capture harmonic flows, incorporate boundary conditions, and model non-stationary data.
We generalize Conway's approach to integral binary quadratic forms on Q to study integral binary hermitian forms on quadratic imaginary extensions of Q. In Conway's case, an indefinite form that doesn't represent 0 determines a line ("river") in the spine T associated with SL(2,Z) in the hyperbolic plane. In our genera…
Efficiently visualizes uncertainty in local divergence of 2D vector fields.
problem Uncertainty in vector field data leads to inaccurate divergence computations.
method Closed-form approach for highly efficient and accurate uncertainty visualization of local divergence, assuming independently Gaussian-distributed vector uncertainties.
result Significantly enhanced efficiency and accuracy of our algorithms over classical MC approach.
Study uses DMD to analyze oceanic features in Strait of Gibraltar.
problem Understanding complex oceanic features in Strait of Gibraltar.
method Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) applied to 3D MIT general circulation model simulations.
result Unveiled new elements and dynamics of the Strait of Gibraltar, including a secondary gyre and wave propagation.
New method models intensity functions on spheres using normalizing flows.
problem Modeling non-homogeneous Poisson process intensity functions on the sphere.
method Flexible bijective map using normalizing flows to transform intensity functions.
result Normalizing flows provide a flexible way to model intensity functions on spheres.
Combines ML and DA to infer unresolved scale parametrisation from noisy data.
problem Training ML-based parametrisations from realistic, noisy and sparse observations.
method Two-step process: DA for state estimation, ML for model error prediction.
result Hybrid model produces better forecasts and attractor representation.
We derive a single pass algorithm for computing the gradient and Fisher information of Vecchia's Gaussian process loglikelihood approximation, which provides a computationally efficient means for applying the Fisher scoring algorithm for maximizing the loglikelihood. The advantages of the optimization techniques are de…
Lagrangian data assimilation is a complex problem in oceanic and atmospheric modeling. Tracking drifters in large-scale geophysical flows can involve uncertainty in drifter location, complex inertial effects, and other factors which make comparing them to simulated Lagrangian trajectories from numerical models extremel…
When a feed-forward neural network (FNN) is trained for source ranging in an ocean waveguide, it is difficult evaluating the range accuracy of the FNN on unlabeled test data. A fitting-based early stopping (FEAST) method is introduced to evaluate the range error of the FNN on test data where the distance of source is u…
We give a graphical theory of integral indefinite binary Hamiltonian forms f analogous to the one by Conway for binary quadratic forms and the one of Bestvina-Savin for binary Hermitian forms. Given a maximal order O in a definite quaternion algebra over Q, we define the waterworld of f, analog…
We first introduce a novel profile-based alignment algorithm, the multiple continuous Signal Alignment algorithm with Gaussian Process Regression profiles (SA-GPR). SA-GPR addresses the limitations of currently available signal alignment methods by adopting a hybrid of the particle smoothing and Markov-chain Monte Carl…
Super-resolution is a classical problem in image processing, with numerous applications to remote sensing image enhancement. Here, we address the super-resolution of irregularly-sampled remote sensing images. Using an optimal interpolation as the low-resolution reconstruction, we explore locally-adapted multimodal conv…