Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

58116174232 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Numerical Confounders

New method tackles confounded bandit problems with dual instrumental variables.

problem Confounded contextual bandit problems where noise affects both contexts and rewards.
method Dual instrumental variable regression applied to reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result Near-optimal convergence rate and computationally efficient algorithms proved.

Confounding biases recommender systems, even when data seems fully observed.

problem Unmeasured features influencing both treatment and outcome in recommender systems.
method Illustrations and simulation studies showing how common practices introduce confounding.
result Standard recommender system practices can introduce confounding, reducing performance.

Proposes a method to estimate policy values in reinforcement learning with unmeasured confounders.

problem Estimating policy values in reinforcement learning with unmeasured confounders.
method Develops a two-way deconfounder algorithm using a neural tensor network to learn unmeasured confounders and system dynamics.
result Consistent policy value estimation through model-based estimator.

Bayesian Topic Regression models causal inference with text and numerical data.

problem Causal inference using observational text data with both text and numerical confounders.
method Combines supervised Bayesian topic model with Bayesian regression framework, respecting the Frisch-Waugh-Lovell theorem.
result Joint approach recovers ground truth with lower bias than benchmarks, superior prediction results compared to separate approaches.

New method for valid prediction intervals in counterfactual outcomes with runtime confounding.

problem Valid prediction intervals for counterfactual outcomes under runtime confounding.
method Debiased machine learning framework grounded in semiparametric efficiency theory.
result Prediction intervals achieve desired coverage rates with faster convergence compared to standard methods.

Unified framework for large-scale hypothesis testing with confounders.

problem Bias in large-scale hypothesis testing due to unmeasured confounders.
method Unified statistical estimation and inference framework that disentangles confounding effects and jointly estimates latent and primary effects.
result Effective Type-I error control and power in hypothesis testing.

The paper tackles long-term treatment effects with persistent confounders using sequential short-term outcomes.

problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with persistent unmeasured confounders.
method Exploiting the sequential structure of short-term outcomes, the paper develops three novel identification strategies and corresponding estimators.
result The proposed methods outperform existing approaches in handling persistent confounders.

Develops methods for personalized treatment decisions in the presence of unmeasured factors.

problem Personalized treatment decisions in the presence of unmeasured confounding.
method Proximal learning approaches to estimate optimal individualized treatment regimes (ITRs).
result Established identification results for different classes of ITRs, improving decision-making value function.

New method estimates latent gene expression factors without overlap with known confounders.

problem Estimating latent variance components in gene expression data with known confounders.
method Restricted maximum-likelihood method maximizing likelihood on orthogonal subspace.
result Method reduces runtime and attains greater likelihood values than gradient-based optimizers.

Proposes a method to infer causal effects from incomplete data using latent confounders.

problem Missing data complicates causal inference, especially for non-linear models.
method Uses variational autoencoders to learn latent confounders and incorporate missing values.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the method, especially for non-linear models.

The paper proposes a method to precisely decompose confounders and estimate treatment effects.

problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with confounder identification and balancing.
method Learning decomposed representations to identify and balance confounders and non-confounders.
result The method achieves more precise treatment effect estimation than existing methods.

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single treatment. In this work, we construct techniques for estimation with multiple treat…

2018-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Detect hidden confounding in observational data using multiple environments.

problem Detect hidden confounding in observational data.
method Theoretical framework and simulation studies to test for hidden confounding.
result The proposed procedure correctly predicts hidden confounding, especially when bias is large.

Machine learning confound removal biases results, leading to misleading predictions.

problem Common confound removal methods in machine learning lead to misleading predictions.
method Featurewise removal of confound variance by linear regression before applying ML.
result This common deconfounding approach can leak information, amplifying null or moderate effects.

KRCD detects unobserved confounders in nonlinear observational data.

problem Detecting unobserved confounders in nonlinear observational studies.
method Kernel Regression Confounder Detection (KRCD) using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result KRCD outperforms existing methods and achieves superior computational efficiency.

Study identifies conditions for proxy adjustment in confounded binary treatment outcomes.

problem Average causal effect estimation with a non-differentially mismeasured binary confounder.
method Identifies conditions for proxy adjustment in the presence of a non-differentially mismeasured binary confounder.
result Adjusting for a non-differentially mismeasured binary proxy can improve estimation of the average causal effect.

New method estimates policy performance under unobserved confounding.

problem Estimating policy performance when decisions depend on unobserved variables.
method Developed worst-case bounds for robust OPE under unobserved confounding.
result Efficient procedure for computing worst-case bounds, proving statistical consistency.

Consistent estimator derived for confounding strength in observational data.

problem Estimating confounding strength in observational data is challenging due to unobserved confounders.
method Derived and adapted a consistent estimator using tools from random matrix theory.
result The original estimator is not consistent, but an adapted one is.

A new method uses randomized trials to estimate the strength of unobserved confounding.

problem Unobserved confounding compromises causal conclusions from non-randomized studies.
method Designs a statistical test to detect unobserved confounding strength and estimates a lower bound.
result Estimates an asymptotically valid lower bound on unobserved confounding strength.

Proposes tests to control confounding bias in predictive models.

problem Lack of non-parametric tests for confounding bias in predictive modeling.
method Partial and full confounder tests for probing null hypotheses of unconfounded and fully confounded models.
result Reveals previously unreported or hard-to-correct confounders in machine learning models.

LDP speeds up causal discovery by partitioning, improving VAS recall and runtime.

problem Hard causal discovery in nonparametric settings with exponential complexity.
method Local Discovery by Partitioning (LDP) for causal inference around exposure-outcome pairs.
result LDP yields less biased and more precise estimates than baseline methods.

Self-Distilled Disentanglement improves counterfactual predictions by separating variables.

problem Improving counterfactual predictions in the presence of confounders and unobserved variables.
method Self-Distilled Disentanglement framework based on information theory.
result Effective counterfactual inference in synthetic and real-world datasets.

New methods prioritize acquiring confounding features for efficient treatment effect estimation.

problem Efficient treatment effect estimation from observational data with missing confounding information.
method Proposes two acquisition strategies: covariate balancing and reducing factual outcome error.
result Our proposed methods, especially reducing factual outcome error, improve sample efficiency for treatment effect estimation.

Valid causal inference with unobserved confounding in high-dimensional settings.

problem Estimating causal effects with unobserved confounders in high-dimensional data.
method Proposes methods to estimate causal effects with valid confidence intervals in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models.
result Valid semiparametric inference can be obtained with unobserved confounding, and uncertainty intervals are proposed.

Spectral deconfounding improves machine learning models by reducing hidden confounding effects.

problem Machine learning models can be misled by hidden confounders, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Develops a nonlinear spectral deconfounding framework for gradient boosting that modifies boosting dynamics to slow down in confounding-aligned directions.
result Spectrally deconfounded boosting improves estimation of the target function under hidden confounding and is more scalable.

We propose a method for inferring the existence of a latent common cause ('confounder') of two observed random variables. The method assumes that the two effects of the confounder are (possibly nonlinear) functions of the confounder plus independent, additive noise. We discuss under which conditions the model is identi…

2012-05-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Estimates causal effects with selection bias and confounding using regression.

problem Estimating causal effects in presence of selection bias and confounding.
method Two-step regression estimator (TSR) that corrects for selection bias and accounts for confounding.
result TSR estimator reduces variance and is validated in simulations.

Paper tackles backwards-compatible data adaptation for confounded covariate and label shifts.

problem Adapt covariates to predict labels confounded with covariate shifts.
method Proposes confounded shift framework based on minimizing divergence between source and target conditional distributions, conditioning on confounders.
result Demonstrates approach on synthetic and real datasets, achieving backwards-compatible data adaptation.

Deep CITs test conditional independence in images, improving brain MRI scan analysis.

problem Testing conditional independence in complex, high-dimensional variables like images.
method Combines embedding maps and nonparametric CITs for feature representations.
result Valid DNCITs for brain MRI scans and behavioral traits, confirming null results.

Proposes DSW for unbiased ITE estimation with dynamic confounders.

problem Estimating ITE from dynamic observational data with time-varying confounders.
method Deep Sequential Weighting (DSW) infers hidden confounders using current treatment assignments and historical information.
result DSW generates unbiased and accurate treatment effects.

Paper uses Gaussian processes to handle shared latent confounders in causal inference.

problem Bias in causal effect estimates due to shared latent confounders.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model, Gaussian processes with structured latent confounders (GP-SLC), Monte Carlo inference algorithm.
result GP-SLC provides accurate estimates of individual treatment effects with minimal assumptions.