The paper introduces a framework to assess nonlinear causality in financial markets.
problem Identifying and quantifying co-dependence between financial instruments.
method Transfer entropy and convergent cross-mapping methods to assess linear and nonlinear causality.
result Stock indices exhibit significant nonlinear causality, and correlation underestimates causality.
Unified kernel-based methods improve nonlinear causal discovery.
problem Identifying nonlinear causal relationships between time series variables.
method Unified Kernel Principal Component Regression (KPCR) and Gaussian Process score-based model with Smooth Information Criterion.
result Improved performance in time series nonlinear causal discovery.
A new method clusters heterogeneous subgroups for accurate causal learning.
problem Diverse causal relationships across different time spans, regions, or strategies.
method Nonlinear Causal Kernel Clustering
result Reduction in prediction error through enhanced causal learning.
Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal process satisfies some (structural) constraints and showing that the reverse direct…
We address the problem of distinguishing cause from effect in bivariate setting. Based on recent developments in nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA), we train nonparametrically general nonlinear causal models that allow non-additive noise. Further, we build an ensemble framework, namely Causal Mosaic, which …
Researchers identify latent variables and causal structures from nonlinear hierarchical models.
problem Challenging task of identifying latent variables and causal structures from observational data, especially when relationships are nonlinear.
method Investigated nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models, developed identification criterion, and constructed an estimation procedure.
result Identifiability of causal structures and latent variables achieved under mild assumptions.
Paper develops a method to learn causal networks with non-invertible functions.
problem Identifying causal relationships from observational data with non-invertible functional relationships.
method Proposes a test for non-invertible bivariate causal models and develops a method to incorporate this test in structure learning of DAGs.
result Our algorithms outperform existing DAG learning methods in identifying causal graphical structures.
New method reveals true causal functions in nonlinear time series, not just scores.
problem Causal discovery in nonlinear time series often uses scalar edge scores, which hide true function-valued causal influence.
method Formalized function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures. Introduced a practical framework based on ICE for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models.
result Edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors.
Proposes KAR for nonlinear causal discovery using kernel methods.
problem Learning causal relationships in nonlinear settings.
method Kernel anchor regression (KAR) with improved three-stage nonparametric regression.
result KAR outperforms existing methods in nonlinear causal discovery.
New method recovers causal networks from short time-series data.
problem Inferring causal relationships from short time-series data in complex systems.
method Large-scale Nonlinear Granger Causality (lsNGC) approach.
result Captures meaningful interactions from limited observational data.
Kernel measures similarity of nonlinear causal structures in heterogeneous populations.
problem Learning causal structure in populations with diverse underlying structures.
method Distance covariance-based kernel for measuring similarity of causal structures.
result Kernel enables clustering of homogeneous subpopulations for causal structure learning.
Paper proposes forecast-necessity testing for accurate causal interpretation in nonlinear time-series models.
problem Misinterpretation of causal scores from nonlinear models as regression coefficients.
method Systematic edge ablation and forecast comparison to evaluate causal necessity.
result Causal relationships with similar scores can differ in their necessity for accurate prediction.
Detects model misspecifications in causal models using observational data.
problem Identifying predictor variables with causal effects in misspecified models.
method Develops a general framework based on observational data distribution and proposes an algorithm for finite sample data.
result Identifies predictor variables for causal effects even in misspecified models.
Calculates local Granger causality for Gaussian and nonlinear systems.
problem Understanding causal influence in complex systems.
method Vector autoregression and information-theoretic approach.
result Local Granger causality offers a robust and fast method for time-directed information transfer.
Proposes a new method for nonlinear models with robustness guarantees.
problem Distributional robustness in nonlinear models with causality.
method Representation learning and identifiable representation learning.
result First causality-inspired robustness method with finite-radius guarantees in nonlinear settings.
New method for nonlinear Granger causality improves predictive relationships.
problem Challenges in applying Granger causality to nonlinear data.
method Permutation of covariate set, artificial neural networks, consistent variance estimation.
result Permutation method outperforms other techniques in predicting nonlinear relationships.
New methods for scalable causal discovery from complex data.
problem Learning causal structures from nonlinear, continuous or mixed data.
method BF-BIC score and BF-LRT test for scalable causal discovery.
result BF-BIC score and BF-LRT test enable scalable causal discovery with competitive accuracy and runtime.
Novel algorithm identifies nonlinear Granger causal relationships using kernel ridge regression.
problem Identification of nonlinear Granger causal relationships.
method Flexible plug-in architecture with kernel ridge regression using radial basis function.
result Kernel ridge regression in mlcausality achieves competitive AUC scores and more finely calibrated p-values.
New framework learns nonlinear cyclic causal models from data.
problem Challenges in learning causal relationships from real-world, cyclic systems.
method NODAGS-Flow: a novel framework using residual normalizing flows for likelihood estimation.
result Significant performance improvements in structure recovery and predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection repose upon linear time series assumptions, many interactions in neuroscience and economics applications are nonlinear. We develop an approach to nonlinear Granger causality detection using multilayer perceptrons where the input to the network is the past t…
Extends causal discovery to group variables, improving performance in real-world applications.
problem Inferring cause-effect relationships from grouped data.
method Two-step approach: infer causal order and select models.
result Strong performance in simulations and real-world assembly line data.
While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection assume linear dynamics, many interactions in real-world applications, like neuroscience and genomics, are inherently nonlinear. In these cases, using linear models may lead to inconsistent estimation of Granger causal interactions. We propose a class of non…
Method estimates bivariate causal models using normalising flows and variational Gaussian process regression.
problem Lack of explainability in AI models, especially in causal mechanisms.
method Combination of normalising flows for density estimation and variational Gaussian process regression for post-nonlinear models.
result Method better explains cause-effect pairs than simple additive noise models.
Expands experimental design for causal discovery from limited data.
problem Challenges in causal discovery from observational and interventional data.
method Bayesian optimal experimental design incorporating recent advances in causal discovery.
result Active causal discovery of large, nonlinear SCMs with both intervention target and value selection.
Two environments are enough to infer causal graphs and counterfactuals.
problem Inferring causal relations from multiple environments, especially for nonlinear mechanisms.
method Using structural causal models and the invariance principle, the study shows that only two auxiliary environments are sufficient for causal graph inference and counterfactual inference.
result Two auxiliary environments are sufficient for identifying causal graphs and counterfactuals.
New method discovers causal models from mixed time series data.
problem Discovering causal relationships from heterogeneous time series data.
method Variational inference-based framework MCD for linear and nonlinear causal models.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks in causal discovery tasks.
New method identifies causal graphs with limited data and noise.
problem Identifying causal graphs from observational data is generally impossible.
method Using additional data from two environments with different noise statistics, and assuming Gaussian noise.
result The entire causal graph can be uniquely identified with a constant number of environments.
We use the score function for causal discovery, tackling challenges with hidden variables.
problem Causal discovery from observational data with hidden variables.
method Fine-tuning identifiability results, establishing conditions for inferring causal relations from the score, proposing a flexible algorithm.
result Empirical validation of the proposed algorithm for causal discovery on linear, nonlinear, and latent variable models.
Paper introduces ps-BART for estimating nonlinear ATE and CATE in continuous treatments.
problem Estimating ATE and CATE in continuous treatments with nonlinear relationships.
method Generalized ps-BART model for nonparametric estimation.
result ps-BART outperforms BCF model in highly nonlinear settings.
Interpretable framework evaluates structure learning methods for causal discovery from observational data.
problem Evaluation of structure learning methods under assumption violations in causal discovery.
method Six-dimensional evaluation metric (DOS) tailored for causal discovery.
result Amortized causal discovery delivers results with high proximity to the optimal solution.
New method for learning causal relationships in PNL models.
problem Learning causal relationships from empirical observations in PNL models.
method Rank-based methods to estimate non-linear functions, disentangling from independence tests.
result Consistent method for PNL causal discovery, validated in experiments.
This work explains RL policies using causal models, revealing important patterns and failures.
problem Understanding why RL policies succeed or fail in complex, high-dimensional systems.
method Developed a nonlinear Causal Model Reduction framework to learn simplified causal models from RL policy actions and rewards.
result The approach can uncover important behavioral patterns and failure modes in trained RL policies.
Online social networks offer a new way to investigate financial markets' dynamics by enabling the large-scale analysis of investors' collective behavior. We provide empirical evidence that suggests social media and stock markets have a nonlinear causal relationship. We take advantage of an extensive data set composed o…
CMC method detects causal relationships in time series data.
problem Understanding causal relationships in nonlinear systems.
method Cross-Mapping Coherence method, based on nonlinear state-space reconstruction and coherence metrics.
result CMC accurately identifies causal connections in various systems.
Transformer-based method for causal discovery with prior knowledge integration.
problem Complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations in time series data.
method Multi-layer Transformer forecaster with gradient-based causal structure extraction and attention masking for prior knowledge integration.
result Significant improvement in causal discovery and causal lag estimation compared to state-of-the-art methods.
New method selects direct causal parents from large sets of variables.
problem Inferring direct causal parents from many variables, especially nonlinear and cyclic.
method One-vs.-the-rest feature selection approach with theoretical guarantees.
result Significant improvements over existing methods.
In nonlinear latent variable models or dynamic models, if we consider the latent variables as confounders (common causes), the noise dependencies imply further relations between the observed variables. Such models are then closely related to causal discovery in the presence of nonlinear confounders, which is a challeng…
Proposes iCaRL for nonlinear OOD generalization in causal settings.
problem Machine learning systems fail to generalize to new environments.
method iCaRL, leveraging exponential family distributions and causal discovery.
result Generalization guarantees in nonlinear settings for both representations and classifiers.
BGM-IV uses AI to estimate causal effects in complex data.
problem Estimating causal effects in high-dimensional, nonlinear settings with endogeneity.
method Structured latent generative modeling for posterior inference in a causally structured latent space.
result BGM-IV outperforms existing methods in high-dimensional covariate regimes.
Proposes CoDEAL for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data models.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in causal panel data models with covariate effects.
method Covariate-Adjusted Deep Causal Learning (CoDEAL) integrating neural networks and autoencoders.
result Establishes theoretical guarantees and demonstrates compelling performance in simulations and real data.
Incorporating nonlinearity is paramount to predicting the future states of a dynamical system, its response to shocks, and its underlying causal network. However, most existing methods for causality detection and impulse response, such as Vector Autoregression (VAR), assume linearity and are thus unable to capture the …
Develops a method for causal inference with noisy confounders.
problem Noisy measurements of confounders in treatment effects models.
method Local principal subspace approximation combining K-nearest neighbors matching and PCA.
result Estimators of treatment effects and counterfactual distributions are constructed.
A new method for identifying causal directions in complex systems.
problem Identifying causal relationships in nonlinear systems with limited data.
method Sequential edge orientation approach using pairwise additive noise model.
result The method can recover true causal DAGs under nonlinear additive noise models.
MediEncoder learns nonlinear representations for causal mediation analysis.
problem High-dimensional noisy covariates and mediators in biomedical studies.
method Coupled encoder-decoder architecture with cross-factor network.
result Improves estimation accuracy in high-dimensional causal mediation analysis.
This paper analyzes the direction of the causality between crude oil, gold and stock markets for the largest economy in the world with respect to such markets, the US. To do so, we apply non-linear Granger causality tests. We find a nonlinear causal relationship among the three markets considered, with the causality go…
By taking into account the nonlinear effect of the cause, the inner noise effect, and the measurement distortion effect in the observed variables, the post-nonlinear (PNL) causal model has demonstrated its excellent performance in distinguishing the cause from effect. However, its identifiability has not been properly …
Granger causality reviewed and advanced for complex data.
problem Validity of inferring causal relationships from time series data.
method Recent advances in models for high-dimensional time series, accounting for nonlinear and non-Gaussian observations, and sub-sampled data.
result Improved computational tools for Granger causality.
Identifies shifts in causal mechanisms between related datasets using ANMs.
problem Estimating the full causal structure from data is challenging; focus on identifying shifts in causal mechanisms.
method Assumes nonlinear additive noise models, uses Jacobian of score function for mixture distribution to identify shifts.
result Shows applicability of the approach on synthetic and real-world data.