A new kernel-based nonconformity score improves multivariate prediction regions.
problem Tackling the challenge of compressing multivariate residual vectors into scalars while preserving geometric structure.
method Introducing a Multivariate Kernel Score (MKS) that decomposes into an anisotropic MMD, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees and convergence rates.
result The MKS produces prediction regions that explicitly adapt to geometric structure, reducing volume compared to ellipsoidal baselines.
New method improves conformal prediction for machine learning models.
problem Improving the efficiency and informativeness of conformal prediction models.
method Introduces Penalized Inverse Probability (PIP) and Regularized PIP (RePIP) nonconformity score functions.
result PIP-based conformal classifiers strike a good balance between informativeness and efficiency.
Proposes a new method to minimize non-singleton predictions in conformal prediction.
problem Large prediction sets in conformal prediction are costly and inefficient.
method Introduces a new nonconformity score to minimize non-singleton sets and provides an algorithm to compute it efficiently.
result The proposed Singleton-Optimized Conformal Prediction (SOCOP) method increases singleton frequency by over 20% compared to standard scores, with minimal impact on average set size.
Adaptive PI by reweighting nonconformity scores improves model uncertainty reflection.
problem CP methods using a constant correction for all test points ignore individual uncertainties.
method QRF learns distribution of nonconformity scores and assigns weights to samples.
result PI lengths more aligned with model uncertainty and improved adaptiveness.
SACP aggregates nonconformity scores from multiple predictors to create more efficient uncertainty sets.
problem Combining predictive uncertainties from multiple models for efficient and reliable uncertainty quantification.
method SACP (Symmetric Aggregated Conformal Prediction) aggregates nonconformity scores using a flexible symmetric aggregation function.
result SACP consistently improves efficiency and often outperforms state-of-the-art model aggregation baselines.
This work improves adaptive conformal prediction using self-supervised learning.
problem Improving the adaptability of conformal prediction intervals.
method Train an auxiliary model with a self-supervised pretext task on top of an existing predictive model and use the self-supervised error as an additional feature to estimate nonconformity scores.
result Empirically demonstrates the benefit of additional information in improving the efficiency (width), deficit, and excess of conformal prediction intervals.
Proposes mCS for multivariate selection with FDR control.
problem Selecting high-quality candidates from multivariate datasets.
method Introduces regional monotonicity and multivariate nonconformity scores.
result Significantly improves selection power with FDR control.
Python package 'nonconform' simplifies conformal anomaly detection.
problem Heuristic thresholding in anomaly detection systems.
method 'nonconform' package converts anomaly scores into calibrated p-values.
result Statistically principled anomaly detection is made accessible.
ST-BCP narrows the coverage gap in BCP by transforming nonconformity scores.
problem The looseness in BCP's coverage guarantee due to Markov's inequality.
method Introduces a data-dependent transformation of nonconformity scores.
result Reduces the average coverage gap from 4.20% to 1.12% on benchmarks.
Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Prediction improves prediction set sizes.
problem Misspecification of Bayesian working model and prior misalignment.
method RoBAS (Robust Bayes-Assisted Shrinkage) framework with two instantiations.
result Proposed scores adapt to prior quality, reducing interval widths in shifted settings.
TRACE improves conformal prediction for multi-dimensional outputs.
problem Challenges in constructing valid and informative conformal prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs.
method TRACE uses transport alignment in diffusion and flow matching models to define nonconformity scores.
result TRACE yields valid and adaptive conformal prediction regions for multimodal and non-convex distributions.
Conformal prediction is a popular tool for providing valid prediction sets for classification and regression problems, without relying on any distributional assumptions on the data. While the traditional description of conformal prediction starts with a nonconformity score, we provide an alternate (but equivalent) view…
Contrast uses normalizing flows to create precise prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs.
problem Generating reliable prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs in supervised and unsupervised learning.
method Contrast uses normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances in latent space, creating sharp prediction regions.
result Contrast maintains guaranteed coverage probability and outperforms existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions.
We investigate the issue of model selection and the use of the nonconformity (strangeness) measure in batch learning. Using the nonconformity measure we propose a new training algorithm that helps avoid the need for Cross-Validation or Leave-One-Out model selection strategies. We provide a new generalisation error boun…
SPI uses synthetic data to improve predictive inference efficiency.
problem Inefficient predictive inference with scarce calibration data.
method Integrates synthetic data to align nonconformity scores and improve coverage guarantees.
result SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets.
Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection via Target-Membership Scores
problem Identifying test candidates whose unknown responses fall in a target region while controlling the false discovery rate
method Membership-score-based conformal selection
result Finite-sample valid null p-values
Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Prediction improves prediction set sizes.
problem Misspecification of Bayesian working model and prior misalignment.
method RoBAS (Robust Bayes-Assisted Shrinkage) framework with two instantiations.
result Improves prediction set sizes in shifted settings.
Multi-output is essential in machine learning that it might suffer from nonconforming residual distributions, i.e., the multi-output residual distributions are not conforming to the expected distribution. In this paper, we propose "Wrapped Loss Function" to wrap the original loss function to alleviate the problem. This…
UnKGCP generates prediction intervals for uncertain knowledge graphs with statistical guarantees.
problem Lack of quantified predictive uncertainty in existing UnKGE methods.
method Proposes extsc{UnKGCP} framework using conformal prediction with a novel nonconformity measure.
result Sharp prediction intervals effectively capture predictive uncertainty in diverse UnKGE methods.
DANCE improves prediction set efficiency for deep learning models.
problem Inefficient, overly conservative prediction sets for pre-trained models.
method DANCE combines adaptive kernel regression and nearest-neighbor approach.
result DANCE produces more efficient and robust prediction sets.
Efficiently samples conformal boundaries in high dimensions using flows.
problem Difficulty in interpreting and using prediction sets in high-dimensional or structured output spaces.
method Flow-based approach using differentiable nonconformity scores to induce deterministic flows on the output space.
result Sampling conformal boundaries in arbitrary dimensions becomes computationally efficient and training-free.
A new conformal prediction framework for graph-valued outputs using Z-Gromov-Wasserstein distances.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification for graph-valued supervised prediction.
method Proposes a conformal prediction framework using Z-Gromov-Wasserstein distances for graph-valued outputs.
result Provides distribution-free coverage guarantees for graph-valued outputs.
Optimal transport improves multivariate prediction uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate learning tasks, especially in regression and classification.
method Introducing a novel Conformal Prediction procedure using optimal transport to handle multivariate score functions and construct flexible prediction regions.
result Ensures finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees for multivariate prediction sets.
BC-ACI corrects time series forecast bias, improving prediction intervals.
problem Persistent bias in time series forecasts leads to overly conservative prediction intervals.
method Augments ACI with an EWM estimate of forecast bias to correct nonconformity scores and re-center intervals.
result Reduces Winkler interval scores by 13-17% under distribution shifts, improving calibration.
Optimizes minimum-volume prediction sets for multivariate regression.
problem Lack of efficient methods for multivariate conformal prediction.
method Optimization-driven framework for minimum-volume covering sets.
result Efficient and informative prediction sets with tight coverage.
PRISM-FCP improves federated prediction robustness against Byzantine attacks.
problem Byzantine attacks in federated learning.
method Partial model sharing and distance-based maliciousness scores.
result Maintains nominal coverage guarantees under Byzantine attacks.
Method predicts biomarker trajectories with uncertainty bands for Alzheimer's disease.
problem Uncertainty in biomarker predictions poses risks in clinical deployment.
method Conformal prediction for randomly-timed biomarker trajectories.
result Conformal bands achieve desired coverage and are tighter than baseline.
MMDCP improves outlier detection and classification with adaptive prediction sets.
problem Label shift and distribution differences in multi-class settings.
method Combines distance measures with full conformal prediction for adaptive prediction sets.
result Valid coverage and effective control of class-wise false discovery rate (CW-FDR).
Machine learning components such as deep neural networks are used extensively in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). However, they may introduce new types of hazards that can have disastrous consequences and need to be addressed for engineering trustworthy systems. Although deep neural networks offer advanced capabilities, t…
Paper proposes a new method for predicting DER adoption with hierarchical guarantees.
problem Accurately predicting DER adoption in electric grids with uncertainty and spatial disparity.
method Multivariate Hawkes process for modeling DER adoption dynamics and split conformal prediction algorithm for hierarchical validity.
result Empirical evaluation shows superior predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration compared to existing methods.
Study efficient algorithms for one-shot federated conformal prediction.
problem Valid prediction sets in one-shot federated learning.
method Quantile-of-quantiles family of estimators and split conformal prediction.
result No significant loss in coverage and length compared to centralized setting.
A method for non-parametric conditional distribution estimation using CRPS-optimal binning.
problem Non-parametric conditional distribution estimation.
method Partitioning covariate-sorted observations into bins to minimize LOO-CRPS, selecting K by K-fold cross-validation of test CRPS.
result Produces narrower prediction intervals with near-nominal coverage compared to split-conformal competitors.
Posterior conformal prediction improves prediction interval validity for subgroups.
problem Marginal and conditional prediction interval validity for subgroups.
method Modeling conditional nonconformity score distribution as a mixture of cluster distributions.
result PCP produces tighter prediction intervals, especially for well-represented clusters.
A new method for predicting uncertainties in stream networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in spatiotemporal graphs with directional flow constraints.
method Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Conformal Inference (STACI) integrating network topology and temporal dynamics.
result STACI effectively balances prediction efficiency and coverage, outperforming existing methods.
The paper introduces uncertainty quantification for NER models.
problem Current NER models lack uncertainty measures, leading to downstream errors.
method Full-Sequence and Subsequence Conformal Prediction framework.
result The method provides formal guarantees about the reliability of model predictions.
CoCP optimizes prediction intervals by jointly learning center and radius, improving efficiency and coverage.
problem Inefficient conformal prediction intervals under heteroscedasticity and skewness.
method Co-optimization framework that learns center and radius through alternating optimization steps.
result CoCP yields consistently shorter intervals and state-of-the-art conditional coverage diagnostics.
TQA improves prediction intervals for time series data by adjusting quantiles for both cross-sectional and longitudinal coverage.
problem Constructing reliable prediction intervals for cross-sectional time series data.
method Temporal Quantile Adjustment (TQA) method that adjusts the quantile in Conformal Prediction to account for both cross-sectional and longitudinal coverage.
result TQA improves longitudinal coverage while preserving cross-sectional coverage, as validated through extensive experimentation.
SOCP uses SOM to find groups and local calibration buffers for better regional coverage.
problem Heterogeneous regional coverage gaps in conformal prediction.
method Self-Organizing Map (SOM) for group discovery; local calibration buffers at BMU or fixed grid.
result Reduces regional coverage gaps on 7/8 benchmarks by 7.1%.
This work approximates full conformal prediction for neural networks without sample splitting.
problem Uncertainty quantification for neural network regression models.
method Approximating full conformal prediction using Gauss-Newton influence for post-hoc uncertainty estimation.
result Locally-adaptive and often tighter prediction intervals compared to split-CP.
RR-GNN improves GNN prediction intervals by accounting for graph heteroscedasticity and structural biases.
problem Uncertainty quantification in GNNs for high-stakes domains.
method Graph-Structured Mondrian CP, Residual-Adaptive Nonconformity Scores, Cross-Training Protocol.
result Improved efficiency and no loss of coverage compared to CP baselines.
This paper evaluates conformal prediction for aerial image classification in challenging environments.
problem Challenging aerial image classification in data-scarce, unconstrained environments.
method Conformal prediction applied to pretrained models (MobileNet, DenseNet, ResNet) with limited labeled data.
result Conformal prediction can provide valuable uncertainty estimates even with small labeled samples.
Efficient method for multi-label text classification with large label sets.
problem Computational inefficiency in handling a large number of unique labels.
method Proposed efficient LP-ICP approach to reduce computational complexity.
result The contextualised-based classifier outperforms non-contextualised ones and achieves state-of-the-art performance.
Recent advances in deep learning have achieved impressive gains in classification accuracy on a variety of types of data, including images and text. Despite these gains, however, concerns have been raised about the calibration, robustness, and interpretability of these models. In this paper we propose a simple way to m…
AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.
problem Creating valid and accurate prediction intervals for machine learning models.
method AutoML framework that optimizes prediction interval length for better accuracy and less conservatism.
result AutoCP significantly outperforms benchmark algorithms in constructing accurate prediction intervals.
Generative models' evaluation scores can be misleading, leading to inflated grades.
problem Misleading evaluation scores for generative models.
method Analyzed and compared various scores for evaluating synthetic vs. ground-truth data.
result The Eden score avoids grade inflation and better aligns with human perception.
Improves score estimation for noised targets using known clean scores.
problem Poor score estimation at low noise levels in Denoising Score Matching.
method Introduces Target Score Identity and Target Score Matching loss.
result Score estimates are more accurate at low noise levels.
This work improves likelihood of score-based diffusion ODEs using high-order denoising score matching.
problem The gap between maximum likelihood and score matching objectives for score-based diffusion ODEs.
method High-order denoising score matching to maximize likelihood.
result Score-based diffusion ODEs achieve better likelihood on synthetic and CIFAR-10 data.
Study compares multivariate scoring rules for distribution forecasts.
problem Evaluating the discrimination ability of multivariate scoring rules.
method Simulation study comparing energy and variogram scores using historical data.
result Variogram score with p=0.5 outperforms other scores.