A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study evaluates machine learning for predicting treatment effects in observational studies.
problem Challenges in measuring treatment effects due to confounding bias in observational studies.
method Simulated two scenarios with and without confounding, using linear and non-linear relationships. Used machine learning models (linear regression, lasso regression, random forest) to predict counterfactuals and treatment effects.
result Machine learning models perform well under linearity but poorly under non-linearity, even in the presence of confounding.
Causal inference concerns the identification of cause-effect relationships between variables. However, often only linear combinations of variables constitute meaningful causal variables. For example, recovering the signal of a cortical source from electroencephalography requires a well-tuned combination of signals reco…
We investigate the joint dynamics of spot and implied volatility from an empirical perspective. We focus on the equity market with the SPX Index our underlying of choice. Using only observable quantities, we extract the instantaneous variance curves implied by the market and study their daily variations jointly with sp…
Latent force models are systems whereby there is a mechanistic model describing the dynamics of the system state, with some unknown forcing term that is approximated with a Gaussian process. If such dynamics are non-linear, it can be difficult to estimate the posterior state and forcing term jointly, particularly when …
We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for a type of asymmetry between causes and effects that is present when these are related via linear models contaminated with additive non-Gaussian noise. Assuming that the causes and the effects have the same distribution, we show that the distribution of the residuals of …
Inference-aware meta-alignment of LLMs reduces computational cost.
problem Aligning LLMs to diverse human preferences is challenging due to conflicting criteria.
method IAMA trains a base model to be aligned to multiple tasks via different inference-time alignment algorithms, using non-linear GRPO for optimization.
result IAMA enables effective alignment of LLMs to multiple criteria with limited computational budget.
Machine learning algorithms are typically run on large scale, distributed compute infrastructure that routinely face a number of unavailabilities such as failures and temporary slowdowns. Adding redundant computations using coding-theoretic tools called "codes" is an emerging technique to alleviate the adverse effects …
In the two parts of this paper we solve a problem of De Rham, proving that Reidemeister torsion invariants determine topological equivalence of linear G-representations, for G a finite cyclic group. Methods in controlled K-theory and surgery theory are developed to establish, and effectively calculate, a necessary and …
Capacity analysis has been recently introduced as a way to analyze how linear models distribute their modelling capacity across the input space. In this paper, we extend the notion of capacity allocation to the case of neural networks with non-linear layers. We show that under some hypotheses the problem is equivalent …
In our previous study we have presented an approach to studying lead--lag effect in financial markets using information and network theories. Methodology presented there, as well as previous studies using Pearson's correlation for the same purpose, approached the concept of lead--lag effect in a naive way. In this pape…
We consider the clustering problem of attributed graphs. Our challenge is how we can design an effective and efficient clustering method that precisely captures the hidden relationship between the topology and the attributes in real-world graphs. We propose Non-linear Attributed Graph Clustering by Symmetric Non-negati…
We provide an overview of several non-linear activation functions in a neural network architecture that have proven successful in many machine learning applications. We conduct an empirical analysis on the effectiveness of using these function on the MNIST classification task, with the aim of clarifying which functions…
A semi-parametric, non-linear regression model in the presence of latent variables is applied towards learning network graph structure. These latent variables can correspond to unmodeled phenomena or unmeasured agents in a complex system of interacting entities. This formulation jointly estimates non-linearities in the…
Graph embedding learns low-dimensional representations for nodes in a graph and effectively preserves the graph structure. Recently, a significant amount of progress has been made toward this emerging research area. However, there are several fundamental problems that remain open. First, existing methods fail to preser…
This research evaluates learning models for bionic robots, focusing on transfer function identification.
problem Developers need guidance on selecting and constructing transfer functions for bionic robots.
method Comprehensive evaluation strategy including data collection, learning model selection, comparative analysis, and transfer function identification.
result A framework for effectively dealing with multi-input multi-output robotic data.
The purpose of this note is two give a mathematical treatment to the low energy effective theory of the two-dimensional sigma model. Perhaps surprisingly, our low energy effective theory encodes much of the topology and geometry of the target manifold. In particular, we relate the β-function of our theory to the Ricc…
Method learns causal effects from multiple interventions in presence of unobserved confounders.
problem Disentangling causal effects from sets of interventions in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Non-linear structural causal models with additive, multivariate Gaussian noise; algorithm that learns causal model parameters by pooling data from different regimes and maximizing combined likelihood.
result Identification proofs demonstrate that causal effects of single interventions can be learned from sets of interventions, even with unobserved confounders.
Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) are state-of-the-art graph based representation learning models by iteratively stacking multiple layers of convolution aggregation operations and non-linear activation operations. Recently, in Collaborative Filtering (CF) based Recommender Systems (RS), by treating the user-item inte…
Calibration of stochastic local volatility (SLV) models to their underlying local volatility model is often performed by numerically solving a two-dimensional non-linear forward Kolmogorov equation. We propose a novel finite volume (FV) discretization in the numerical solution of general 1D and 2D forward Kolmogorov eq…