A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
DualIV simplifies non-linear IV regression via dual formulation.
problem Non-linear instrumental variable regression with potential first-stage regression bottleneck.
method Dual formulation of non-linear IV regression as a convex-concave saddle-point problem, leading to a kernel-based algorithm with analytic solution.
result Empirical results show competitive performance compared to existing algorithms.
In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH (Asymmetric Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) error term and its par…
We propose a computationally efficient estimator, formulated as a convex program, for a broad class of non-linear regression problems that involve difference of convex (DC) non-linearities. The proposed method can be viewed as a significant extension of the "anchored regression" method formulated and analyzed in [10] f…
There has been a growing interest in using non-parametric regression methods like Gaussian Process (GP) regression for system identification. GP regression does traditionally have three important downsides: (1) it is computationally intensive, (2) it cannot efficiently implement newly obtained measurements online, and …
This paper tackles efficient and scalable estimation of a complex model involving stochastic linear combinations of non-linear regressions.
problem Estimating a model involving stochastic linear combinations of non-linear regressions efficiently and scalably.
method The paper provides algorithms for estimating the model under specific assumptions about the variate vector and sample size, using techniques like zero-bias transformation and sub-sampling.
result The paper provides theoretical guarantees for the estimation of the model, showing that the estimation errors are of the order O(np) and O(p1+np) with high probability.
We consider the task of robust non-linear regression in the presence of both inlier noise and outliers. Assuming that the unknown non-linear function belongs to a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), our goal is to estimate the set of the associated unknown parameters. Due to the presence of outliers, common techni…
A non linear regression approach which consists of a specific regression model incorporating a latent process, allowing various polynomial regression models to be activated preferentially and smoothly, is introduced in this paper. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood performed via a dedicated expeca…
We propose a new least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm for the approximation of conditional expectations in the presence of stochastic derivative weights. The algorithm can serve as a building block for solving dynamic programming equations, which arise, e.g., in non-linear option pricing problems or in probabilistic dis…
This paper introduces a method to approximate Gaussian process regression by representing the problem as a stochastic differential equation and using variational inference to approximate solutions. The approximations are compared with full GP regression and generated paths are demonstrated to be indistinguishable from …
Selecting important features in non-linear or kernel spaces is a difficult challenge in both classification and regression problems. When many of the features are irrelevant, kernel methods such as the support vector machine and kernel ridge regression can sometimes perform poorly. We propose weighting the features wit…
The discovery of non-linear causal relationship under additive non-Gaussian noise models has attracted considerable attention recently because of their high flexibility. In this paper, we propose a novel causal inference algorithm called least-squares independence regression (LSIR). LSIR learns the additive noise model…
We consider support recovery in the quadratic logistic regression setting - where the target depends on both p linear terms xi and up to p2 quadratic terms xixj. Quadratic terms enable prediction/modeling of higher-order effects between features and the target, but when incorporated naively may involve solvi…
In this study we introduce a new technique for symbolic regression that guarantees global optimality. This is achieved by formulating a mixed integer non-linear program (MINLP) whose solution is a symbolic mathematical expression of minimum complexity that explains the observations. We demonstrate our approach by redis…
SAFLe solves federated learning's trade-off between non-linearity and scalability.
problem Federated Learning's high communication overhead and performance collapse on non-IID data.
method SAFLe introduces a structured head of bucketed features and sparse, grouped embeddings, mathematically equivalent to a high-dimensional linear regression.
result SAFLe achieves a new state-of-the-art in analytic FL, outperforming linear AFL and multi-round DeepAFL.
This paper studies the dynamic generator model for spatial-temporal processes such as dynamic textures and action sequences in video data. In this model, each time frame of the video sequence is generated by a generator model, which is a non-linear transformation of a latent state vector, where the non-linear transform…
It is shown that the the popular least squares method of option pricing converges even under very general assumptions. This substantially increases the freedom of creating different implementations of the method, with varying levels of computational complexity and flexible approach to regression. It is also argued that…
We propose a novel kernel based post selection inference (PSI) algorithm, which can not only handle non-linearity in data but also structured output such as multi-dimensional and multi-label outputs. Specifically, we develop a PSI algorithm for independence measures, and propose the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criteri…
We extend the empirical results published in article "Empirical Evidence on Arbitrage by Changing the Stock Exchange" by means of machine learning and advanced econometric methodologies based on Smooth Transition Regression models and Artificial Neural Networks.
Improved interpretability methods for ML models using local regressions and variable importance.
problem Inability of existing interpretability methods to provide reliable explanations for ML models, especially in high-dimensional problems with irrelevant features and non-linear relationships.
method Introduces VarImp and SupClus methods using local regressions with weighted distance considering variable importance.
result VarImp and SupClus methods yield better explanations than state-of-the-art approaches, especially in high-dimensional problems with irrelevant features and non-linear relationships.
A semi-parametric, non-linear regression model in the presence of latent variables is applied towards learning network graph structure. These latent variables can correspond to unmodeled phenomena or unmeasured agents in a complex system of interacting entities. This formulation jointly estimates non-linearities in the…
This paper presents a cross-country comparison of significant predictors of small business failure between Italy and the UK. Financial measures of profitability, leverage, coverage, liquidity, scale and non-financial information are explored, some commonalities and differences are highlighted. Several models are consid…
New algorithms predict causal links better than traditional methods in time series data.
problem Learning causal structure from time series data with challenges in real-world Earth sciences.
method Combination of established ideas for linear methods to identify causal links in non-linear systems, with a focus on large regression coefficients.
result Large regression coefficients can predict causal links better than small p-values in practice.