A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A predictor that is deployed in a live production system may perturb the features it uses to make predictions. Such a feedback loop can occur, for example, when a model that predicts a certain type of behavior ends up causing the behavior it predicts, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper we analyze p…
In this work, we have presented a simple analytical approximation scheme for generic non-linear FBSDEs. By treating the interested system as the linear decoupled FBSDE perturbed with non-linear generator and feedback terms, we have shown that it is possible to carry out a recursive approximation to an arbitrarily highe…
In this paper, we propose an efficient Monte Carlo implementation of non-linear FBSDEs as a system of interacting particles inspired by the ideas of branching diffusion method. It will be particularly useful to investigate large and complex systems, and hence it is a good complement of our previous work presenting an a…
The paper analyzes portfolio selection with non-linear wealth dynamics and random coefficients.
problem Mean-variance portfolio selection with non-linear wealth dynamics and random coefficients.
method Solves an auxiliary stochastic control problem to construct a candidate portfolio, verifies optimality using convex duality, and provides the efficient frontier.
result Obtains the efficient frontier in closed form, showing people prefer riskless assets over classical linear markets.
Study non-linear combinatorial bandits with polynomial rewards, finding significant differences from linear cases.
problem Adversarial combinatorial bandits with general non-linear reward functions.
method Extending existing work on adversarial linear combinatorial bandits, analyzing minimax optimal regret for polynomial and non-polynomial reward functions.
result Minimax optimal regret bounds for adversarial combinatorial bandits with general non-linear reward functions.
Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual time series, whereas traditional methods like Granger causality exploit the var…
Stylized facts of empirical assets log-returns Z include the existence of (semi) heavy tailed distributions fZ(z) and a non-linear spectrum of Hurst exponents τ(β). Empirical data considered are daily prices of 10 large indices from 01/01/1990 to 12/31/2004. We propose a stylized model of price dynamics which is…
Model predicts insolvency risks in banks due to liquidity and credit risks.
problem Determining insolvency regions in banks due to non-linear interaction between liquidity and credit risks.
method Developed a continuous-time structural dynamic model integrating Basel III requirements into a stochastic optimal control framework. Used Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation to solve for insolvency boundary. Derived surrogate analytical approximation for real-time monitoring.
result Calibrated model reveals significant non-linear threshold effects and accelerates insolvency transition.
MOCA uses modular attention to estimate causal effects from complex data.
problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with complex, non-linear, and high-dimensional treatment and outcome mechanisms.
method MOCA is a transformer-based framework that separates treatment and outcome modeling through modular design and one-way attention mechanism, with cutting-feedback to prevent outcome influence on treatment representations.
result MOCA outperforms classical estimators and machine learning approaches across various simulated and real-world scenarios.
New method learns from either positive or negative feedback alone.
problem Limited applicability of existing preference optimization methods in scenarios with only unpaired feedback.
method Decouples learning from positive and negative feedback, using expectation-maximization (EM) to optimize probability of positive outcomes and explicitly incorporate negative examples.
result Stable learning from negative feedback alone demonstrated.
Study on RL from human bandit feedback for sequence-to-sequence learning, showing reliability and learnability.
problem Reliability and learnability of human bandit feedback for RL from sequence-to-sequence learning.
method Investigated reliability of human bandit feedback, analyzed influence on reward estimator learnability, and tested improvements with regression-based reward estimator.
result Improvements of over 1 BLEU can be achieved by integrating a regression-based reward estimator trained on cardinal feedback into RL for NMT.
User preferences for items can be inferred from either explicit feedback, such as item ratings, or implicit feedback, such as rental histories. Research in collaborative filtering has concentrated on explicit feedback, resulting in the development of accurate and scalable models. However, since explicit feedback is oft…
New algorithms for best arm identification in delayed feedback MABs.
problem Best arm identification in multi-armed bandits with delayed feedback.
method Generalized framework for modeling partial and delayed feedback, efficient algorithms for biased and unbiased estimators, and parallel MAB extensions.
result Exploiting partial feedback can lead to significant improvements over baselines in sequential and parallel MAB settings.