Proposes efficient Gaussian approximations for non-Gaussian likelihoods.
problem Computational challenges in learning and inference with non-Gaussian likelihoods.
method Variational inference and moment matching in transformed bases.
result Good approximation quality for binary and multiclass classification.
We propose flow-based likelihoods to accurately capture non-Gaussian data.
problem Bypassing the Gaussian assumption in scientific analyses.
method Use optimization targets of flow-based generative models to reconstruct likelihoods.
result Flow-based likelihoods can accurately capture non-Gaussian data, improving parameter constraints.
Improves graph-based active learning for non-Gaussian models.
problem Efficiently selecting data points for labeling in graph-based semi-supervised learning.
method Approximates non-Gaussian distributions, introduces rank-one update and model change acquisition function.
result Enhanced active learning for graph-based SSL under non-Gaussian models.
This study tackles Gaussian process regression with summarized data.
problem Learning and inference with summarized data (summary statistics, counts) in spatial modeling.
method Sample quasi-likelihood approach to Gaussian process regression.
result Approximation performance of the method is influenced by data granularity and covariance function length scale.
New algorithm for estimating MLR parameters with non-Gaussian noise.
problem Estimating MLR parameters with non-Gaussian noise.
method Combining ADMM with EM algorithm idea.
result Our method outperforms EM algorithm in non-Gaussian noise case.
This paper extends explainability methods to non-Gaussian Gaussian Processes.
problem Making non-Gaussian GP models transparent and explainable.
method Proposes Integrated Gradient-based explainability for non-Gaussian GP models.
result Offers both analytical and approximate solutions for non-Gaussian GP models.
We provide a comprehensive overview and tooling for GP modeling with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods. The state space formulation allows for solving one-dimensional GP models in O(n) time and memory complexity. While existing literature has focused on the connection between GP regression …
This paper proposes a method to approximate non-Gaussian likelihoods in Gaussian Processes.
problem Approximating non-Gaussian likelihoods in Gaussian Processes.
method Proposes a piece-wise constant approximation for the inverse-link function.
result Yields a closed form solution for the SVGP lower bound.
We consider the problem of discriminative factor analysis for data that are in general non-Gaussian. A Bayesian model based on the ranks of the data is proposed. We first introduce a new {\em max-margin} version of the rank-likelihood. A discriminative factor model is then developed, integrating the max-margin rank-lik…
Study detects signals in spiked Wigner models using log likelihood ratio.
problem Detecting signals in rank-one spiked Wigner models with non-Gaussian noise.
method Proved asymptotic normality of log likelihood ratio and computed error thresholds.
result Optimal signal-to-noise ratio threshold for reliable detection.
The paper improves Gaussian process models for efficient batch optimization.
problem Poor scaling and optimization loop issues in Gaussian process models.
method Dual GP parameterization for linear scaling and non-Gaussian likelihood updates.
result Extends sparse models to greedy batch fantasizing acquisition functions.
This paper presents a method for efficient density estimation in nonlinear systems.
problem Accurate representation of non-Gaussian distributions in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging.
method Uses Seminonparametric (SNP) densities with probabilists' Hermite polynomial basis and Monte Carlo approximation for maximum likelihood estimation.
result Demonstrates that the method can accurately capture non-Gaussian density structure and compute quantiles using fewer samples than raw Monte Carlo.
New robust discriminant analysis for non-Gaussian data.
problem Classical discriminant analysis struggles with non-Gaussian distributions and contaminated datasets.
method Each data point follows its own ES distribution with arbitrary scale, leading to robust classification.
result Maximum-likelihood estimation and classification are simple, fast, and robust.
The paper uses Tukey g-and-h neural networks for non-Gaussian data regression.
problem Regression with non-Gaussian data.
method Training neural networks to predict Tukey g-and-h distribution parameters via negative log-likelihood minimization.
result Efficiency demonstrated in simulated and real-world datasets.
Study of asymmetric rank-one tensor models with non-Gaussian noise.
problem Analyzing maximum-likelihood estimators for asymmetric rank-one tensor models.
method Spectrally separated branch analysis, resolvent methods, cumulant expansions, Efron-Stein-type variance bounds.
result Asymptotic singular value and mode-wise alignments are robust to non-Gaussian noise.
The abstract proposes a neural network theory using quantum field theory.
problem Understanding the behavior of neural networks in the asymptotic and non-asymptotic limits.
method Mapping neural networks to Wilsonian effective field theory, using Gaussian processes and Feynman diagrams.
result Established a direct connection between overparameterization and simplicity of neural network likelihoods.
Develops a new method for nonlinear dimension reduction using random features.
problem Statistical challenges in generalizing Gaussian process-based latent variable models to non-Gaussian data.
method Random feature latent variable models (RFLVMs) that approximate nonlinear relationships with linear functions of random features.
result RFLVMs produce comparable results to state-of-the-art methods on various data types.
Unified framework for robust discriminant analysis overcomes Gaussian assumptions.
problem Challenges in linear and quadratic discriminant analysis with non-Gaussian or contaminated data.
method FEMDA framework considers arbitrary Elliptically Symmetrical (ES) distributions with flexible scale parameters.
result Maximum-likelihood parameter estimation and classification are robust and efficient.
Modeling spatial extremes with non-Gaussian fields using SAR models and CNNs.
problem Challenges in modeling spatial data with heavy-tailed distributions and missing cells.
method Spatial autoregressive models with Generalized Extreme Value innovations, combined with CNN for fast parameter estimation.
result Effective modeling of spatial extremes in non-Gaussian fields, demonstrated on precipitation data.
Develops a new method for functional regression that works with non-Gaussian data.
problem Limited models for regression in function spaces with Gaussian process priors.
method Introduces Neural Operator Flows (OpFlow) for non-Gaussian function spaces.
result OpFlow enables robust and accurate uncertainty quantification for functional regression.
We construct flexible likelihoods for multi-output Gaussian process models that leverage neural networks as components. We make use of sparse variational inference methods to enable scalable approximate inference for the resulting class of models. An attractive feature of these models is that they can admit analytic pr…
We consider robust covariance estimation with group symmetry constraints. Non-Gaussian covariance estimation, e.g., Tyler scatter estimator and Multivariate Generalized Gaussian distribution methods, usually involve non-convex minimization problems. Recently, it was shown that the underlying principle behind their succ…
We tackle the problem of multi-task learning with copula process. Multivariable prediction in spatial and spatial-temporal processes such as natural resource estimation and pollution monitoring have been typically addressed using techniques based on Gaussian processes and co-Kriging. While the Gaussian prior assumption…
Stein variational gradient descent improves inference in Gaussian process models.
problem Inference in Gaussian process models with non-Gaussian likelihoods and large data volumes is computationally intensive and inaccurate with traditional methods.
method Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) for non-parametric inference.
result SVGD monotonically decreases the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the sampling distribution to the true posterior.
We propose a novel method for maximum likelihood-based parameter inference in nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian state space models. The method is an iterative procedure with three steps. At each iteration a particle filter is used to estimate the value of the log-likelihood function at the current parameter iterate. Using …
Unified detector calibration and simulation using MLE from generative models.
problem Combining detector calibration and simulation using traditional methods.
method Maximum likelihood estimation from conditional generative models.
result Prior-independent and non-Gaussian resolutions possible.
Bayesian inference uses Stein discrepancy for robustness in intractable likelihoods.
problem Intractable likelihoods in Bayesian inference.
method Generalised Bayesian inference with Stein discrepancy as the loss function.
result Robust generalised posteriors with closed form or accessible using MCMC.
New approach to robust Gaussian process regression with bias model.
problem Outliers in Gaussian process regression.
method Models outliers as biased observations and uses bias terms in likelihood.
result Robust and accurate GP estimates for various outlier scenarios.
A new method improves Bayesian filtering in nonlinear systems.
problem Bayesian filtering in nonlinear dynamical systems with non-Gaussian posteriors.
method Transport maps with block-triangular structure and gradient flows for MMD minimization.
result Accurate approximation of non-Gaussian posteriors without particle collapse.
The paper improves random forest models for non-Gaussian responses.
problem Improving random forest models for non-Gaussian responses.
method Extends boosting random forests to model exponential family responses using residuals and weights.
result Generalized boosted forests reduce bias and provide conservative confidence intervals.
Gaussian process models are flexible, Bayesian non-parametric approaches to regression. Properties of multivariate Gaussians mean that they can be combined linearly in the manner of additive models and via a link function (like in generalized linear models) to handle non-Gaussian data. However, the link function formal…
We study a new parametric approach for particular hidden stochastic models such as the Stochastic Volatility model. This method is based on contrast minimization and deconvolution. After proving consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimation leading to asymptotic confidence intervals, we provide a thorough nume…
OT-ICA uses optimal transport to find independent components, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Finding independent components from linear mixtures of signals.
method OT-ICA uses the squared Wasserstein distance to maximize non-Gaussianity, optimizing projections via gradient descent.
result OT-ICA outperforms traditional proxy-based methods in various applications.
EFDA extends LDA to non-Gaussian models using exponential families.
problem Classifying non-Gaussian data with LDA's limitations.
method EFDA uses exponential families to derive closed-form estimators for natural parameters and a linear decision rule.
result EFDA matches LDA's accuracy while reducing ECE by 2-6x, proving asymptotic calibration and efficiency.
We study asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators of drift parameters for a jump-type Heston model based on continuous time observations, where the jump process can be any purely non-Gaussian Lévy process of not necessarily bounded variation with a Lévy measure concentrated on (−1,∞). We prove stro…
Combines VI and EP for better Gaussian process hyperparameter learning.
problem Improving hyperparameter learning in Gaussian processes for better performance.
method Hybrid training procedure combining Variational Inference (VI) for posterior inference and Expectation Propagation (EP) for hyperparameter learning.
result The hybrid training procedure provides a better learning objective and generalizes better than using only VI or EP.
New method estimates causal structure from sparse data.
problem Inferring causal structure from sparse observational data.
method Log-likelihood of sparsely mixed ICA with penalty terms.
result Proposed method outperforms existing methods.
Recursive KalmanNet combines neural networks with Kalman filters for precise state estimation.
problem State estimation in systems with noisy measurements and non-Gaussian noise.
method Recursive KalmanNet uses a recurrent neural network to estimate states with consistent error covariance, optimizing for Gaussian negative log-likelihood.
result Recursive KalmanNet outperforms conventional Kalman filters and deep learning-based estimators in non-Gaussian noise conditions.
DALTON improves ODE parameter estimation by learning from noisy data.
problem High sensitivity to parameters in ODEs produces unreliable parameter estimates.
method Data-adaptive probabilistic likelihood approximation for ODEs.
result DALTON produces more accurate parameter estimates than existing methods.
A new HMM model captures kernel dependencies using context-specific Bayesian networks.
problem Traditional HMMs struggle with non-Gaussian data and independence assumptions.
method Kernel density estimation with context-specific Bayesian networks.
result The proposed model outperforms related HMMs in likelihood and classification accuracy.
Gaussian process classification (GPC) provides a flexible and powerful statistical framework describing joint distributions over function space. Conventional GPCs however suffer from (i) poor scalability for big data due to the full kernel matrix, and (ii) intractable inference due to the non-Gaussian likelihoods. Henc…
Paper studies sparsity and DAG constraints for learning linear DAGs.
problem Learning DAGs from data is challenging due to the large search space.
method Formulates structure learning as a constrained optimization problem with soft sparsity and DAG constraints.
result Soft sparsity and DAG constraints lead to an easier optimization problem.
In this work, we propose a model for estimating volatility from financial time series, extending the non-Gaussian family of space-state models with exact marginal likelihood proposed by Gamerman, Santos and Franco (2013). On the literature there are models focused on estimating financial assets risk, however, most of t…
Modified lognormal distribution with flexible tails for skewed data.
problem Skewed and fat-tailed data in natural and engineering datasets.
method Developed a family of three-parameter non-Gaussian probability density functions based on generalized kappa-exponential and kappa-logarithm functions.
result Closed-form analytic expressions for statistical functions and maximum-likelihood estimation.
Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric generative models that provide interpretability of hyperparameters, admit closed-form expressions for training and inference, and are able to accurately represent uncertainty. To model general non-Gaussian data with complex correlation structure, GPs can be paired wit…
This work extracts stochastic dynamical systems with α-stable Lévy noise.
problem Extracting data-driven governing laws of dynamical systems with non-Gaussian noise.
method End-to-end deep learning approach for learning drift and diffusion coefficients for α-stable Lévy noise. result Effectiveness of the method confirmed by numerical experiments.
We introduce stochastic variational inference for Gaussian process models. This enables the application of Gaussian process (GP) models to data sets containing millions of data points. We show how GPs can be vari- ationally decomposed to depend on a set of globally relevant inducing variables which factorize the model …
Maximum likelihood estimator performance in logistic regression analyzed.
problem Performance of maximum likelihood estimator in logistic regression.
method Sharp non-asymptotic guarantees for existence and excess logistic risk.
result Sharp guarantees for the existence and excess risk of MLE in logistic regression.