The main result of the paper is a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) for large financial markets based on an asymptotic concept of no market free lunch for monotone concave preferences. The proof uses methods from the theory of Orlicz spaces. Moreover, various notions of no asymptotic arbitrage …
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48 results for “No Free Lunch”
We provide equivalence of numerous no-free-lunch type conditions for financial markets where the asset prices are modeled as exponential Levy processes, under possible convex constraints in the use of investment strategies. The general message is the following: if any kind of free lunch exists in these models it has to…
No free lunch theorem formalized for tensor network models.
problem Understanding limitations of tensor network machine learning models.
method Formalized rigorous no-free-lunch theorem for specific tensor network models.
result Revealed intrinsic limitations of tensor network-based learning models.
No free lunch theorems suggest inductive biases are needed, but we show neural networks prefer low-complexity data.
problem The need for inductive biases in machine learning.
method Analysis of Kolmogorov complexity and neural network behavior on various datasets.
result Neural networks prefer low-complexity data, suggesting inductive biases are not always necessary.
Paper explores rough path theory for frictionless markets, linking NCFL to unbiased rough integrators.
problem Tackles the limits of rough path theory in frictionless markets.
method Investigates the capacity of rough path theory to support No Free Lunch markets.
result Establishes a 'Rough Kreps-Yan' theorem linking NCFL to unbiased rough integrators.
No free lunch theorems show all algorithms perform equally under uniform distribution.
problem Analyzing scenarios involving non-uniform distributions and comparing algorithms.
method No Free Lunch theorems applied to analyze and compare algorithms without distribution assumptions.
result Anti-cross-validation performs as well as cross-validation under non-uniform distributions.
Free Lunchq-fin.GN
The concept of absence of opportunities for free lunches is one of the pillars in the economic theory of financial markets. This natural assumption has proved very fruitful and has lead to great mathematical, as well as economical, insights in Quantitative Finance. Formulating rigorously the exact definition of absence…
Paper explores learning patterns in binary sequences, finding no method consistently outperforms others.
problem Learning patterns in infinite binary sequences.
method Various learning methods are compared, finding no method consistently outperforms others.
result No learning method consistently outperforms others in predicting binary sequences.
No universal trading strategy exists due to mathematical impossibilities.
problem The impossibility of universally winning trading strategies in competitive markets.
method Three mathematical paradigms: measure-theoretic, No-Free-Lunch theorem, and adversarial Cantor diagonalization.
result No-arbitrage and free-lunch principles are mathematically precluded in competitive markets.
This paper considers a sequence of discrete-time random walk markets with a safe and a single risky investment opportunity, and gives conditions for the existence of arbitrages or free lunches with vanishing risk, of the form of waiting to buy and selling the next period, with no shorting, and furthermore for weak conv…
We obtain a deterministic characterisation of the \emph{no free lunch with vanishing risk}, the \emph{no generalised arbitrage} and the \emph{no relative arbitrage} conditions in the one-dimensional diffusion setting and examine how these notions of no-arbitrage relate to each other.
"No free lunch" results state the impossibility of obtaining meaningful bounds on the error of a learning algorithm without prior assumptions and modelling. Some models are expensive (strong assumptions, such as as subgaussian tails), others are cheap (simply finite variance). As it is well known, the more you pay, the…
Study on RL on volatility surfaces, proving no free lunch for law-seeking methods.
problem Aligning RL agents with no-arbitrage laws in volatile markets.
method Built a law manifold, defined penalties, and used a Goodhart decomposition.
result No free lunch theorem: Law-seeking RL cannot outperform baselines.
New supervised and unsupervised NFLTs for elliptical distributions.
problem Understanding unsupervised No Free Lunch Theorems for elliptical distributions.
method Proved two equally optimal strategies for elliptical distributions, inspired PRIM-based bump-hunting algorithms.
result Optimal strategies for selecting principal components based on variance or volume.
Robust no-free lunch with vanishing risk, a continuum of assets and proportional transaction costsq-fin.PR
We propose a continuous time model for financial markets with proportional transactions costs and a continuum of risky assets. This is motivated by bond markets in which the continuum of assets corresponds to the continuum of possible maturities. Our framework is well adapted to the study of no-arbitrage properties and…
This manuscript presents some new impossibility results on adversarial robustness in machine learning, a very important yet largely open problem. We show that if conditioned on a class label the data distribution satisfies the Talagrand transportation-cost inequality (for example, this condition is satisfied if t…
We study the existence of the numeraire portfolio under predictable convex constraints in a general semimartingale model of a financial market. The numeraire portfolio generates a wealth process, with respect to which the relative wealth processes of all other portfolios are supermartingales. Necessary and sufficient c…
We derive deterministic criteria for the existence and non-existence of equivalent (local) martingale measures for financial markets driven by multi-dimensional time-inhomogeneous diffusions. Our conditions can be used to construct financial markets in which the \emph{no unbounded profit with bounded risk} condition ho…
The study examines how permutation-based optimization performance varies across different function representations.
problem Understanding how the order of function evaluations affects optimization performance.
method Iterative search setting with sampling without replacement, algebraic function recombination, correlation analysis, hierarchical clustering, PCA, ANOVA.
result Algebraically modified benchmarks yield stable re-rankings and coherent clusters of functions and sampling policies, indicating non-additive search effort.
We propose a unified analysis of a whole spectrum of no-arbitrage conditions for financial market models based on continuous semimartingales. In particular, we focus on no-arbitrage conditions weaker than the classical notions of No Arbitrage and No Free Lunch with Vanishing Risk. We provide a complete characterisation…
The study defines backdoor detection in ML and proves its infeasibility.
problem Backdoor detection in machine learning systems.
method Formal statistical definition and analysis of feasibility.
result Backdoor detection is impossible except for very small alphabet sizes.
The paper shows real market exists free lunches with vanishing risks.
problem The hypothesis of no free lunches with vanishing risk in real markets.
method Accurately hedged extreme-maturity zero-coupon bond.
result FLVRs naturally exist in the real market.
PPI++ outperforms gold-standard labels only if pseudo-labels are highly correlated.
problem Optimizing statistical estimation using noisy pseudo-labels.
method Exact finite-sample analysis of PPI++ on mean estimation problem.
result PPI++ has provably worse estimation error than gold-standard labels alone in some settings.
The study examines markets with multiple numéraires and finds equivalent martingale measures.
problem Analyzing markets with diverse assets and numéraires.
method Theoretical foundations and results on superreplication prices.
result Existence of equivalent martingale measures in markets with multiple numéraires.
Data pruning algorithms struggle in high compression regimes, as shown by theoretical and empirical studies.
problem Limitations of score-based data pruning algorithms in high compression regimes.
method Theoretical and empirical analysis of score-based data pruning algorithms.
result Score-based data pruning algorithms fail in high compression regimes due to 'No Free Lunch' theorems.
Develops a stochastic approach to financial market delays.
problem Modeling delays in financial markets with multiple assets.
method Introduces a general stochastic framework for information and order execution delays.
result Delayed markets maintain fundamental asset pricing theorems and no asymptotic free lunch condition.
Negative Call Pricesq-fin.PR
We show that the existence of an equivalent local martingale measure for asset prices does not prevent negative prices for European calls written on positive stock prices. In particular, we illustrate that many standard no-arbitrage arguments implicitly rely on conditions stronger than the No Free Lunch With Vanishing …
The paper sets criteria for no arbitrage in complex financial models.
problem Determining conditions for the absence of arbitrage in financial markets.
method Established deterministic conditions for no arbitrage, NUPBR, and NFLVR in diffusion market models.
result Provided criteria in terms of scale function and speed measure.
The study examines a financial model with sticky prices and finds no arbitrage when interest rate is zero.
problem Analyzing financial markets with sticky asset prices and proving no arbitrage conditions.
method Introduced a financial market model with a risky asset following a sticky geometric Brownian motion and a riskless asset with a constant interest rate. Proved no arbitrage conditions and derived pricing equations.
result No arbitrage conditions are met only when the interest rate is zero, and all replicable payoffs are derived under this condition.
Implicit models, latent compression, intrinsic biases, and cheap lunches in community detectioncs.SI
New method compares community detection algorithms without ground truth.
problem Comparing community detection algorithms without ground truth.
method Integrates any objective with its implicit generative model.
result More expressive methods consistently outperform others.
There is no free lunch, no single learning algorithm that will outperform other algorithms on all data. In practice different approaches are tried and the best algorithm selected. An alternative solution is to build new algorithms on demand by creating a framework that accommodates many algorithms. The best combination…
In recent years, there has been increased research interest in detecting anomalies in temporal streaming data. A variety of algorithms have been developed in the data mining community, which can be divided into two categories (i.e., general and ad hoc). In most cases, general approaches assume the one-size-fits-all sol…
Double no-touch options, contracts which pay out a fixed amount provided an underlying asset remains within a given interval, are commonly traded, particularly in FX markets. In this work, we establish model-free bounds on the price of these options based on the prices of more liquidly traded options (call and digital …
MC Dropout is re-evaluated as not Bayesian, affecting predictive posterior and multimodality.
problem MC Dropout's Bayesian properties and predictive posterior are questioned.
method Re-evaluation of MC Dropout's properties, including a new VI engine in pytorch.
result MC Dropout does not produce a faithful Bayesian predictive posterior.
No GANs can learn disconnected manifolds precisely.
problem Learning disconnected manifolds is challenging due to unimodal latent distributions.
method Formalized a no free lunch theorem and derived a rejection sampling method.
result Upper bound on the precision of the targeted disconnected manifold distribution.
We apply Geometric Arbitrage Theory to obtain results in mathematical finance for credit markets, which do not need stochastic differential geometry in their formulation. We obtain closed form equations involving default intensities and loss given defaults characterizing the no-free-lunch-with-vanishing-risk condition …
Under short sales prohibitions, no free lunch with vanishing risk (NFLVR-S) is known to be equivalent to the existence of an equivalent supermartingale measure for the price processes (Pulido [22]). For two given price processes, we translate the property (NFLVR-S) in terms of so called structure conditions and we intr…
The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First is to extend the notions of an n-dimensional semimartingale and its stochastic integral to a piecewise semimartingale of stochastic dimension. The properties of the former carry over largely intact to the latter, avoiding some of the pitfalls of infinite-dimensional stochast…
Extends credit risky bond market models to include jumps and general semimartingales.
problem Modeling credit risky bonds with jumps and general semimartingales under minimal assumptions.
method Extends Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to include jumps and generalizes recovery scheme.
result Derives generalized drift conditions for local martingale measures, ensuring no asymptotic free lunch.
Overfitting has a limitation: a model-independent generalization gap bound based on Rényi entropystat.ML
New bound limits generalization gap for large models, independent of model complexity.
problem Understanding generalization gap in large-scale machine learning models.
method Established a model-independent upper bound for generalization gap using Rényi entropy.
result Generalization gap can be maintained with arbitrarily large models if data entropy is sufficient.
We study the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing for a general financial market under Knightian Uncertainty. We adopt a functional analytic approach which require neither specific assumptions on the class of priors nor on the structure of the state space. Several aspects of modeling under Knightian Uncer…
New findings show that multitask learning can improve with more tasks, but not without additional information.
problem The challenge of improving performance in multitask learning settings.
method Analysis of classification scenarios with shared optimal classifiers and ranking of tasks.
result No adaptive algorithm exists that guarantees improved rates with large for fixed , but a simple rank-based procedure can achieve near optimal aggregations.
This paper considers general term structure models like the ones appearing in portfolio credit risk modelling or life insurance. We give a general model starting from families of forward rates driven by infinitely many Brownian motions and an integer-valued random measure, generalizing existing approaches in the litera…
We have embedded the classical theory of stochastic finance into a differential geometric framework called Geometric Arbitrage Theory and show that it is possible to: --Write arbitrage as curvature of a principal fibre bundle. --Parameterize arbitrage strategies by its holonomy. --Give the Fundamental Theorem of Asset …
This paper addresses the log-optimal portfolio for a general semimartingale model. The most advanced literature on the topic elaborates existence and characterization of this portfolio under no-free-lunch-with-vanishing-risk assumption (NFLVR). There are many financial models violating NFLVR, while admitting the log-op…
Free lunch from noise reveals linear spectral features for RL.
problem Trade-off between expressiveness and tractability in RL.
method Noise assumption and Spectral Dynamics Embedding (SPEDE).
result SPEDE breaks the trade-off and completes optimistic exploration.
We study convex risk measures describing the upper and lower bounds of a good deal bound, which is a subinterval of a no-arbitrage pricing bound. We call such a convex risk measure a good deal valuation and give a set of equivalent conditions for its existence in terms of market. A good deal valuation is characterized …
This primer tackles biases in machine learning for image analysis, proposing solutions.
problem Causal and statistical biases in machine learning methods for image analysis.
method Introduction of causal and statistical structures that induce failure, highlighting two problems: no fair lunch and subgroup separability.
result Current fair representation learning methods fail to solve these problems, suggesting new paths forward.