A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New model forecasts power consumption with high accuracy over months to years.
With developing of computation tools in the last years, data analysis methods to find insightful information are becoming more common among industries and researchers. This paper is the first part of the times series analysis of New England electricity price and demand to find anomaly in the data. In this paper time-se…
Neural network predicts daily power consumption with high accuracy.
Hydropower reduces system electricity price and volatility, especially at extreme levels.
The paper analyzes sterling bills of exchange during the first globalization, revealing their global financial role.
We employ stochastic dynamic microsimulations to analyse and forecast the pension cost dependency ratio for England and Wales from 1991 to 2061, evaluating the impact of the ongoing state pension reforms and changes in international migration patterns under different Brexit scenarios. To fully account for the recently …
A study on power market price forecasting by deep learning is presented. As one of the most successful deep learning frameworks, the LSTM (Long short-term memory) neural network is utilized. The hourly prices data from the New England and PJM day-ahead markets are used in this study. First, a LSTM network is formulated…
A minimal model of a market of myopic non-cooperative agents who trade bilaterally with random bids reproduces qualitative features of short-term electric power markets, such as those in California and New England. Each agent knows its own budget and preferences but not those of any other agent. The near-equilibrium pr…
We develop a prediction-based prescriptive model for learning optimal personalized treatments for patients based on their Electronic Health Records (EHRs). Our approach consists of: (i) predicting future outcomes under each possible therapy using a robustified nonlinear model, and (ii) adopting a randomized prescriptiv…
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This…
Paper proposes a GAN-based approach for RTLMP prediction.
Paper uses Gaussian processes to handle shared latent confounders in causal inference.
Ensemble learning is a mainstay in modern data science practice. Conventional ensemble algorithms assigns to base models a set of deterministic, constant model weights that (1) do not fully account for variations in base model accuracy across subgroups, nor (2) provide uncertainty estimates for the ensemble prediction,…
ARHNN method improves electricity price forecasting accuracy.
Study historical cholera epidemics and simulate long-term mortality impacts.
The large volume of text in electronic healthcare records often remains underused due to a lack of methodologies to extract interpretable content. Here we present an unsupervised framework for the analysis of free text that combines text-embedding with paragraph vectors and graph-theoretical multiscale community detect…
This paper introduces a novel framework to construct the region of attraction (ROA) of a power system centered around a stable equilibrium by using stable state trajectories of system dynamics. Most existing works on estimating ROA rely on analytical Lyapunov functions, which are subject to two limitations: the analyti…
Study uses 1D-CNNs to forecast mortality in ELSA survey.
Fuel poverty affects between 50 and 125 million households in Europe and is a significant issue for both developed and developing countries globally. This means that fuel poor residents are unable to adequately warm their home and run the necessary energy services needed for lighting, cooking, hot water, and electrical…
The theory of multilayer networks is in its early stages, and its development provides vital methods for understanding complex systems. Multilayer networks, in their multiplex form, have been introduced within the last three years to analysing the structure of financial systems, and existing studies have modelled and e…
Study improves traffic prediction intervals for minor roads.
Paper uses RL to optimize ICU load during COVID-19.
Paper introduces MTCM to measure multivariate tail dependence.
This research quantifies cross-sectoral inequalities using latent class analysis.
Unified ML approach predicts ED attendances with high accuracy.
Study evaluates large language models' ability to understand probabilistic real-world distributions.
We study association between macroeconomic news and stock market returns using the statistical theory of copulas, and a new comprehensive measure of news based on the indexing of news wires. We find the impact of economic news on equity returns to be nonlinear and asymmetric. In particular, controlling for economic con…
FININ predicts financial markets by modeling news interactions and influence.
News novelty predicts negative stock market returns.
The viral spread of fake news has caused great social harm, making fake news detection an urgent task. Current fake news detection methods rely heavily on text information by learning the extracted news content or writing style of internal knowledge. However, deliberate rumors can mask writing style, bypassing language…
Quantum analysis tags news for sentiment and entities.
We propose an indicator to measure the degree to which a particular news article is novel, as well as an indicator to measure the degree to which a particular news item attracts attention from investors. The novelty measure is obtained by comparing the extent to which a particular news article is similar to earlier new…
New model uses financial news to predict stock returns.
Effective detection of fake news has recently attracted significant attention. Current studies have made significant contributions to predicting fake news with less focus on exploiting the relationship (similarity) between the textual and visual information in news articles. Attaching importance to such similarity help…
News embeddings improve volatility forecasts.
MANA-Net improves market predictions by dynamically weighting news sentiments.
Stock prices are driven by various factors. In particular, many individual investors who have relatively little financial knowledge rely heavily on the information from news stories when making investment decisions in the stock market. However, these stories may not reflect future stock prices because of the subjectivi…
Nowadays, Internet is a primary source of attaining health information. Massive fake health news which is spreading over the Internet, has become a severe threat to public health. Numerous studies and research works have been done in fake news detection domain, however, few of them are designed to cope with the challen…
Online news media provides aggregated news and stories from different sources all over the world and up-to-date news coverage. The main goal of this study is to have a solution that considered as a homogeneous source for the news and to represent the news in a new conceptual framework. Furthermore, the user can easily …
We extend the well-known Borromean and Brunnian rings to new higher order versions. Then we suggest an extension of the connection between Efimov states in cold gases and Borromean and Brunnian rings to these new higher order links. This gives rise to a whole new hierarchy of possible states with Efimov states at the b…
MALCOM generates fake comments to fool fake news detectors.
Study detects fake news in Brazilian Portuguese using machine learning.
News on inflation and monetary policy impacts US household inflation expectations.
A new construction of naturally reductive spaces is presented. This construction gives a large amount of new families of naturally reductive spaces. First the infinitesimal models of the new naturally reductive spaces are constructed. A concrete transitive group of isometries is given for the new spaces and also the na…
Motivated by recent financial crises significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said about influence of financial news on financial markets. We propose a novel measure of collective behaviour in financial news on the Web, New…
The profusion of online news articles makes it difficult to find interesting articles, a problem that can be assuaged by using a recommender system to bring the most relevant news stories to readers. However, news recommendation is challenging because the most relevant articles are often new content seen by few users. …
We propose how to quantify high-frequency market sentiment using high-frequency news from NASDAQ news platform and support vector machine classifiers. News arrive at markets randomly and the resulting news sentiment behaves like a stochastic process. To characterize the joint evolution of sentiment, price, and volatili…
Study news networks to predict stock returns.