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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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247493740986 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Neural Index Policy

Neural Index Policy for multi-action bandits with heterogeneous budgets.

problem Real-world settings often involve multiple interventions with heterogeneous costs and constraints, breaking classical assumptions.
method Introduces a Neural Index Policy (NIP) that learns to assign budget-aware indices to arm-action pairs using a neural network and differentiable knapsack layer.
result Empirically achieves near-optimal performance while strictly enforcing heterogeneous budgets and scaling to hundreds of arms.

The study analyzes how neural reward models learn features for policy optimization in a Gaussian single-index model.

problem Reward modeling in policy optimization and its impact on downstream value.
method Two-stage neural reward model: first learns hidden direction, then fits readout layer.
result For any feature-learning temperature above a dimension-free threshold, a constant fraction of neurons recover the hidden direction.

Study on indexability of restless multi-armed bandits and rollout policy performance.

problem Maximizing discounted rewards in finite state restless multi-armed bandit problems.
method Decouple the problem into single-armed restless bandits, analyze using value iteration, and compare with Whittle index policy.
result Demonstrates conditions for indexability and compares performance of index policy and rollout policy.

NeurWIN learns Whittle indices for restless bandits using deep reinforcement learning.

problem Finding optimal solutions for restless bandits with complex transition kernels.
method NeurWIN uses a neural network to learn Whittle indices, leveraging the Whittle indices' mathematical properties.
result NeurWIN outperforms other RL algorithms in solving three recently studied restless bandit problems.

This paper measures the intensity of implicit government guarantees using PMC index model.

problem Excessive local government debt due to implicit government guarantees.
method Text mining of policy documents related to municipal investment bonds, PMC index model.
result Recent policies have reduced the intensity of implicit government guarantees.

New method optimizes policies without assuming known link functions between preferences and rewards.

problem Policy alignment with unknown and unrestricted link functions.
method Formulates an ff-divergence-constrained reward maximization problem, learning policies directly.
result Induces a semiparametric single-index binary choice model for policy alignment.

In this paper, we model the impact of oil price volatility on Tehranstock and industry indices in two periods of international sanctions and post-sanction. To analyse the purpose of study, we use Feed-forward neural net-works. The period of study is from 2008 to 2018 that is split in two periods during international en…

2019-12-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimal policy for multi-armed multi-action bandits with unknown parameters.

problem Optimal sequential action selection for multi-armed multi-action bandits with unknown parameters.
method Occupancy-Measured-Reward Index Policy (OMRIP) and R(MA)^2B-UCB algorithm.
result Asymptotically optimal policy with sub-linear regret and low computational complexity.

The paper evaluates index-based allocation policies using data from randomized control trials.

problem Evaluating index-based allocation policies in resource-scarce scenarios.
method Using data from randomized control trials, the paper introduces an efficient estimator and methods for computing asymptotically correct confidence intervals.
result Valid statistical conclusions can be drawn for index-based allocation policies.

Study improves policy search in continuous control by using heavy-tailed distributions.

problem Challenges in continuous space policy search due to non-convexity and myopic-farsighted incentives.
method Introduced heavy-tailed policy parameterizations and analyzed convergence rates and stability.
result Convergence rate to stationarity depends on policy's tail index and exploration tolerance.

Paper constructs a CRRIX index to assess cryptocurrency market risks from regulatory changes.

problem Lack of indices quantifying regulatory risks in cryptocurrencies.
method CRRIX index based on news coverage frequency, using Latent Dirichlet Allocation and Hellinger distance.
result CRRIX successfully captures major policy-changing moments and synchronizes with market volatility.

The paper analyzes the sliding regret of stochastic bandit algorithms.

problem Measuring the one-shot behavior of no-regret algorithms in stochastic bandits.
method Introducing sliding regret to measure the worst pseudo-regret over a time-window.
result Randomized methods have optimal sliding regret, while index policies have the worst possible sliding regret.

New algorithm uses Whittle index to improve Q-learning for restless bandits.

problem Optimizing decision-making in multiarmed restless bandits with average reward.
method Introduces a novel reinforcement learning algorithm combining Q-learning and Whittle index policy.
result Demonstrates significant computational gains and excellent empirical performance.

Study on adversarial training's impact on deep neural reinforcement learning policies.

problem Vulnerability of deep neural reinforcement learning policies to imperceptible adversarial perturbations.
method Two parallel approaches: Fourier spectrum analysis and feature sensitivity measurement.
result Adversarially trained policies are more sensitive to low frequency perturbations.

We consider a finite-horizon multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in a Bayesian setting, for which we propose an information relaxation sampling framework. With this framework, we define an intuitive family of control policies that include Thompson sampling (TS) and the Bayesian optimal policy as endpoints. Analogous to TS…

2019-02-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper extends quantile factor analysis with probabilistic methods for better economic policy and financial condition prediction.

problem Improving accuracy in economic and financial condition prediction.
method Probabilistic quantile factor analysis with regularization and variational approximations.
result The probabilistic estimator outperforms a recent loss-based estimator in many cases.

Study creates a global living index to assess quality of life.

problem Long-term impacts of global economic changes on living conditions.
method Machine learning framework combining socio-economic factors.
result Developed a practical tool for policymakers to identify areas needing improvement.

Study Whittle index learning algorithms for restless bandits with constant stepsizes.

problem Optimizing decisions in restless multi-armed bandits with constant stepsizes.
method Developed Q-learning algorithms with constant stepsizes for index learning in restless bandits, extending to DQN and function approximations.
result The algorithms learn the Whittle index effectively.

This paper is about index policies for minimizing (frequentist) regret in a stochastic multi-armed bandit model, inspired by a Bayesian view on the problem. Our main contribution is to prove that the Bayes-UCB algorithm, which relies on quantiles of posterior distributions, is asymptotically optimal when the reward dis…

2016-01-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Study finds market inefficiencies vary by time scale, with news uncertainty key.

problem Evaluating scale-dependent informational efficiency of stock markets.
method Tensor-eigenvalue-based Financial Chaos Index, Granger causality, network analysis.
result Semi-strong form of EMH rejected at daily frequency, but not at monthly.

We present a reinforcement learning framework, called Programmatically Interpretable Reinforcement Learning (PIRL), that is designed to generate interpretable and verifiable agent policies. Unlike the popular Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) paradigm, which represents policies by neural networks, PIRL represents polic…

2018-04-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Softmax policy gradient achieves global optimality in wide neural networks with entropy regularization.

problem Optimizing softmax policies with neural networks in the mean-field regime.
method Modeling neural networks as Wasserstein gradient flows and proving global optimality of fixed points.
result Global optimality of softmax policy gradient in wide single hidden layer neural networks with entropy regularization.

Study examines cross-training neural networks for financial index prediction.

problem Predicting financial indexes from different markets using machine learning.
method Investigated various neural network architectures and trained them on one market index to predict another.
result Cross-training models on one market index improved prediction accuracy for another market index.

Policy iteration is a family of algorithms that are used to find an optimal policy for a given Markov Decision Problem (MDP). Simple Policy iteration (SPI) is a type of policy iteration where the strategy is to change the policy at exactly one improvable state at every step. Melekopoglou and Condon [1990] showed an exp…

2019-11-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Configuration spaces for computer systems can be challenging for traditional and automatic tuning strategies. Injecting task-specific knowledge into the tuner for a task may allow for more efficient exploration of candidate configurations. We apply this idea to the task of index set selection to accelerate database wor…

2019-09-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Bank transactions help predict macroeconomic indexes faster and more accurately.

problem Lag in macroeconomic index availability and autoregressive models' limitations in complex scenarios.
method Use financial transactions data to estimate macroeconomic indexes using neural networks and smart sampling.
result Neural network approach outperforms baseline methods on hand-crafted features based on transactions.

Analyzes how inclusion/exclusion from STOXX Europe 600 Index affects company prices.

problem Understanding price dynamics of companies in STOXX Europe 600 Index.
method Used logit models and neural networks to analyze data.
result Identified independent variables affecting price changes.

NeuralRBMLE tackles explore-exploit trade-offs in contextual bandits with neural networks.

problem Stochastic contextual bandit problem with general bounded reward functions.
method Reward-biased maximum likelihood estimation with neural networks to enforce exploration.
result Both NeuralRBMLE variants achieve O~(T)\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}) regret.

A RL framework for hedging equity index options with realistic costs.

problem Dynamic hedging of equity index option exposures under transaction costs.
method Reinforcement Learning (RL) with a leak-free environment, cost-aware reward function, and stochastic actor-critic agent.
result The RL policy improves risk-adjusted performance compared to no-hedge, momentum, and volatility-targeting baselines.

The study examines how global economic policy uncertainty affects crude oil futures volatility.

problem Predicting crude oil futures volatility using global economic policy uncertainty.
method Established single-factor and two-factor models under the GARCH-MIDAS framework, tested with rolling-window and fixed-span specifications.
result GEPU changes have stronger predictive power than the GEPU index for crude oil futures volatility.

ALPE improves mid-price forecasting in HFT with real-time data.

problem Real-time mid-price forecasting in high-frequency trading.
method Adaptive Learning Policy Engine (ALPE) using RL and adaptive epsilon decay.
result ALPE outperforms other models in mid-price forecasting.

This paper uses machine learning to improve VIX index calculation and detect market manipulation.

problem Inaccuracies and potential market manipulation in VIX index calculation.
method Replicates VIX index using a subset of SP options and neural networks.
result A small number of SP options can accurately replicate the VIX index.