A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Expanding models in neural fictitious play improves reinforcement learning efficiency and robustness.
problem Forgetting old opponents after training new ones in reinforcement learning.
method Train a single model with sub-models and a selector, expanding the model with new sub-models and updating the selector to maintain a behavior strategy.
result Improves learning efficiency and robustness of neural fictitious play.
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are powerful tools for learning generative models. In practice, the training may suffer from lack of convergence. GANs are commonly viewed as a two-player zero-sum game between two neural networks. Here, we leverage this game theoretic view to study the convergence behavior of the…
Fictitious play is a simple and widely studied adaptive heuristic for playing repeated games. It is well known that fictitious play fails to be Hannan consistent. Several variants of fictitious play including regret matching, generalized regret matching and smooth fictitious play, are known to be Hannan consistent. In …
Self-play is an unsupervised training procedure which enables the reinforcement learning agents to explore the environment without requiring any external rewards. We augment the self-play setting by providing an external memory where the agent can store experience from the previous tasks. This enables the agent to come…
We present a simple model of a non-equilibrium self-organizing market where asset prices are partially driven by investment decisions of a bounded-rational agent. The agent acts in a stochastic market environment driven by various exogenous "alpha" signals, agent's own actions (via market impact), and noise. Unlike tra…
Adversarial self-play in two-player games has delivered impressive results when used with reinforcement learning algorithms that combine deep neural networks and tree search. Algorithms like AlphaZero and Expert Iteration learn tabula-rasa, producing highly informative training data on the fly. However, the self-play t…
It is now well known that decentralised optimisation can be formulated as a potential game, and game-theoretical learning algorithms can be used to find an optimum. One of the most common learning techniques in game theory is fictitious play. However fictitious play is founded on an implicit assumption that opponents' …
Decentralised optimisation tasks are important components of multi-agent systems. These tasks can be interpreted as n-player potential games: therefore game-theoretic learning algorithms can be used to solve decentralised optimisation tasks. Fictitious play is the canonical example of these algorithms. Nevertheless fic…
We introduce a new virtual environment for simulating a card game known as "Big 2". This is a four-player game of imperfect information with a relatively complicated action space (being allowed to play 1,2,3,4 or 5 card combinations from an initial starting hand of 13 cards). As such it poses a challenge for many curre…
Many poker systems, whether created with heuristics or machine learning, rely on the probability of winning as a key input. However calculating the precise probability using combinatorics is an intractable problem, so instead we approximate it. Monte Carlo simulation is an effective technique that can be used to approx…
The paper proposes a new approach to model risk measurement based on the Wasserstein distance between two probability measures. It formulates the theoretical motivation resulting from the interpretation of fictitious adversary of robust risk management. The proposed approach accounts for equivalent and non-equivalent p…
In hierarchical reinforcement learning a major challenge is determining appropriate low-level policies. We propose an unsupervised learning scheme, based on asymmetric self-play from Sukhbaatar et al. (2018), that automatically learns a good representation of sub-goals in the environment and a low-level policy that can…
We consider a family of learning strategies for online optimization problems that evolve in continuous time and we show that they lead to no regret. From a more traditional, discrete-time viewpoint, this continuous-time approach allows us to derive the no-regret properties of a large class of discrete-time algorithms i…