NESYM combines AI and Earth models for new climate insights.
problem Replacing traditional Earth models with AI.
method Neural Earth System Modelling (NESYM) integrating AI and climate models.
result Artificial intelligence may render traditional models obsolete.
Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data-model integration. Efficient data-model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a surrogate of a large-scale Earth system model (ESM) with many output variables i…
A new method estimates time-varying parameters in earth system models using offline and online data assimilation.
problem Estimating time-varying parameters in complex earth system models.
method Hybrid Offline Online Parameter Estimation with Particle Filtering (HOOPE-PF)
result HOOPE-PF outperforms existing methods, especially with small ensemble sizes.
Challenge to separate Earth's magnetic field from vehicle's magnetic field for accurate navigation.
problem Separate Earth's magnetic field from vehicle's magnetic field for accurate magnetic navigation.
method Use machine learning (ML) and integrate physics of magnetic navigation (SciML) to remove aircraft magnetic field from total magnetic field.
result A model can be constructed to effectively remove aircraft magnetic field from the dataset.
Hybrid models combine domain knowledge and data-driven learning for Earth observation.
problem Challenges in modelling Earth observation data with either purely mechanistic or data-driven methods.
method Gaussian process convolution models, specifically latent force models (LFMs), integrating physical knowledge into multioutput GP models.
result Model automatically estimates soil moisture persistence and discovers latent forces related to precipitation.
The paper applies Gaussianization to analyze Earth data, simplifying complex multivariate distributions.
problem Challenges in accurately estimating information content in high-dimensional, heterogeneous Earth data.
method Multivariate Gaussianization for robust probability density estimation.
result Validates the method for estimating information-theoretic measures in Earth system data.
Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and methods from data assimilation and machine learning make it possible to integrate …
Reanalysis datasets combining numerical physics models and limited observations to generate a synthesised estimate of variables in an Earth system, are prone to biases against ground truth. Biases identified with the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol optic…
Neural Laplace Control tackles offline RL for continuous-time delayed systems with irregular observations.
problem Offline reinforcement learning problems involving continuous-time environments with delays and irregular observations.
method Combines a Neural Laplace dynamics model with a model predictive control (MPC) planner.
result Achieves near expert policy performance on continuous-time delayed environments.
In numerical modeling of the Earth System, many processes remain unknown or ill represented (let us quote sub-grid processes, the dependence to unknown latent variables or the non-inclusion of complex dynamics in numerical models) but sometimes can be observed. This paper proposes a methodology to produce a hybrid mode…
Machine learning improves prediction of complex geology ahead of drilling.
problem Predicting complex geology during drilling in real-time.
method Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) and Forward Deep Neural Network (FDNN) for real-time geological uncertainty reduction.
result Real-time estimates of complex geological uncertainty achieved.
ClimART dataset benchmarks ML emulators for atmospheric RT in climate models.
problem Lack of a comprehensive dataset and standardized practices for ML benchmarking in climate models.
method Builds ClimART, a large dataset with over 10 million samples, and presents novel baselines.
result Indicates shortcomings of prior datasets and network architectures.
Generative models emulate climate model outputs for impact assessment.
problem Outdated climate model projections hinder adaptation and mitigation planning.
method Score-based diffusion on a spherical mesh, trained on monthly ESM fields.
result Generative models produce distributions closely matching ESM outputs.
VANO uses neural operators for unsupervised learning of functional data.
problem Learning operators between infinite dimensional spaces for functional data.
method Variational Autoencoding Neural Operators (VANO) approach.
result VANO can learn and reconstruct functional data without supervision.
Kernel methods' derivatives make complex models more interpretable.
problem Interpreting complex kernel models.
method Deriving kernel functions' derivatives and applying them to various kernel methods.
result Derivatives of kernel functions can be computed and applied to improve model interpretation.
Numerical models based on physics represent the state-of-the-art in earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest-generation computers, reducing the ability of …
A Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) uses a constellation of satellites around the earth for accurate navigation, timing, and positioning. Natural phenomena like space weather introduce irregularities in the Earth's ionosphere, disrupting the propagation of the radio signals that GNSS relies upon. Such disruptio…
New method for neural networks to predict histogram data.
problem Lack of principled approach for histogram regression.
method Pinball loss applied to cumulative histogram.
result Accuracy similar to EMD with less computational cost.
New neural method calculates EMD for particle physics data.
problem Metric for particle collider events based on Wasserstein metric.
method Neural network architecture estimating EMD using Kantorovich-Rubinstein duality.
result Differentiable way to calculate EMD for geometric fitting.
Reservoir Computing enhances climate predictability studies.
problem Improving climate predictability using machine learning.
method Reservoir Computing applied to climate data.
result Reservoir Computing outperforms traditional LIM in predicting climate variables.
Simulating complex physical systems often involves solving partial differential equations (PDEs) with some closures due to the presence of multi-scale physics that cannot be fully resolved. Therefore, reliable and accurate closure models for unresolved physics remains an important requirement for many computational phy…
Study analyzes seasonal hydroclimatic features across climates and continents.
problem Lack of seasonal hydroclimatic feature analysis for Koppen-Geiger climates and continents.
method Global-scale analysis of 13,000 time series using 7 features.
result Notable differences in feature magnitudes across Koppen-Geiger climate classes and continental regions.
DecoR estimates causal effects in confounded time series data.
problem Estimating causal effects in time series with unobserved confounders.
method Robust regression in the frequency domain.
result Proves upper bounds for estimation error of DecoR, implying consistency.
HECT tests climate model outputs for reproducibility.
problem Ensuring climate models accurately reflect physical processes.
method Probabilistic classifiers for high-dimensional spatio-temporal data.
result A principled way to assess statistical reproducibility of climate models.
Machine learning predicts seasonal precipitation for East Africa.
problem Predicting seasonal precipitation for East Africa using machine learning.
method Dimension reduction via EOFs, large-scale climate variability indices as features, interpretable ML algorithm.
result The ML approach shows significant positive skill in predicting precipitation for OND season, comparable to ECMWF forecasts.
New method shows data-driven causal studies can be misleading.
problem Misattribution of causality in data-driven earth science studies.
method Subsample-based ensemble approach for robust causality analysis.
result Transfer entropy-based causal graphs can be spurious.
Bayesian deep learning predicts satellite collisions.
problem Space debris poses planetary risk.
method Bayesian deep learning with LSTM networks.
result Predicts conjunction event evolution with uncertainties.
FaIRGP model improves climate emulation with physical interpretability.
problem Lack of physical interpretability in data-driven emulators.
method Bayesian approach to a data-driven emulator of energy balance equations.
result Demonstrates skillful emulation of global and spatial surface temperatures.
DA improves solar wind forecasts by updating model boundary conditions.
problem Improving solar wind forecasting accuracy.
method Variational Data Assimilation with solar wind model and in-situ observations.
result DA forecasts are more accurate than non-DA forecasts, especially when STEREO-B's latitude is offset from Earth.
Adversarial attacks aim to confound machine learning systems, while remaining virtually imperceptible to humans. Attacks on image classification systems are typically gauged in terms of p-norm distortions in the pixel feature space. We perform a behavioral study, demonstrating that the pixel p-norm for any $0\le p …
Gaussian processes enhance EO with accurate and uncertain predictions.
problem Challenges in GP models for EO, including data-driven physics and causal inference.
method Data-driven physics-aware models respecting signal characteristics and physical laws.
result GP models need to evolve for better EO applications.
A new method for faster spatial modeling on exascale computers.
problem Scalable, memory-efficient machine learning for spatially distributed data.
method Partitioned Sparse Variational Gaussian Process (PSVGP) with decentralized communication.
result Improved spatial predictions and better model fit with minimal overhead.
In this article, we describe the algorithms for causal structure learning from time series data that won the Causality 4 Climate competition at the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2019 (NeurIPS). We examine how our combination of established ideas achieves competitive performance on semi-realistic a…
In this paper we form relations for the determination of the elements of the Eötvös matrix of the Earth's normal gravity field. In addition a relation between the Gauss curvature of the normal equipotential surface and the Gauss curvature of the actual equipotential surface both passing through the point P is presented…
The representation of nonlinear sub-grid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but only for short-term simulations of at most a few years because of computational lim…
This study analyzes satellite communication latency using a stochastic geometry model.
problem Latency analysis of LEO satellite relay communication systems.
method Stochastic geometry framework with spherical BPP models, suboptimal satellite relay selection strategy.
result Derives distance distributions and analytical expressions for transmission delays.
Proposes a new framework for uncertainty evaluation in ML classification models.
problem Uncertainty evaluation for ML classification models not addressed by existing metrological guidelines.
method Develops a metrological framework based on probability mass functions and summary statistics.
result Extends the GUM to uncertainty for nominal properties, applicable to ML classification models.
Earth observation embeddings can convert discrete biome maps into continuous representations that better capture ecological variation.
problem Biome maps impose categorical boundaries that compress continuous variation in biotic communities.
method Fit a linear classifier on Earth observation embeddings to predict biome labels.
result Continuous biome representation outperforms discrete biome labels for predicting species occurrence.
Meta-learning improves few-shot land cover classification across diverse regions.
problem Capturing diversity in land cover classification across different geographic regions.
method Model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm applied to classification and segmentation tasks.
result Few-shot model adaptation outperforms traditional methods in diverse land cover classification tasks.
Method reveals dissimilarity in alloys' Curie temperatures.
problem Tackles the dissimilarity between rare-earth transition metal binary alloys.
method Ensemble learning with Kernel ridge regression.
result Reveals meaningful relations between alloys' structure and Curie temperature.
FedSpace optimizes ML training on satellites and ground stations.
problem Training machine learning models on satellites with limited bandwidth.
method Federated Learning framework that dynamically schedules model aggregation based on satellite orbits.
result Reduces training time by 1.7 days over state-of-the-art algorithms.
Positive definite kernels are an important tool in machine learning that enable efficient solutions to otherwise difficult or intractable problems by implicitly linearizing the problem geometry. In this paper we develop a set-theoretic interpretation of the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD) and propose Earth Mover's Interse…
New method uses deep neural networks to interpolate spatiotemporal data.
problem Scalable interpolation of spatiotemporal data from growing earth observation systems.
method Bayesian deep learning with random feature expansions.
result Competitive or superior results compared to existing methods.
Neural networks have become increasingly prevalent within the geosciences, although a common limitation of their usage has been a lack of methods to interpret what the networks learn and how they make decisions. As such, neural networks have often been used within the geosciences to most accurately identify a desired o…
The purpose of the New York Workshop on Computer, Earth and Space Sciences is to bring together the New York area's finest Astronomers, Statisticians, Computer Scientists, Space and Earth Scientists to explore potential synergies between their respective fields. The 2011 edition (CESS2011) was a great success, and we w…
Gaussian processes are improved to account for input noise in earth observation.
problem Accurate error assessment in earth observation models.
method Propose a GP model that propagates input noise through the pipeline.
result Improved error representation in temperature predictions from infrared data.
A tensor provides a concise way to codify the interdependence of complex data. Treating a tensor as a d-way array, each entry records the interaction between the different indices. Clustering provides a way to parse the complexity of the data into more readily understandable information. Clustering methods are heavily …
SPF uses a hierarchical approach to efficiently emulate climate changes.
problem Slow and unstable climate emulation for long horizons.
method Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flows (SPF) model data hierarchically across spatial and temporal scales.
result SPF outperforms flow matching baselines and pre-trained models on ClimateBench.