Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is an emerging engineering discipline which is concerned with the analysis and prediction of equipment health and performance. One of the key challenges in PHM is to accurately predict impending failures in the equipment. In recent years, solutions for failure prediction have evo…
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “Network failure”
DeepSIP predicts network failures' impact using CNN from syslog and traffic data.
problem Predicting service impact from network failures.
method Temporal multimodal CNN for predicting time to recovery and traffic loss.
result DeepSIP reduced prediction error by approximately 50%.
Proposes a deep neural network for early disk drive failure prediction.
problem Early prediction of disk drive failure using multivariate time series sensor data.
method Enriched features derived from sensor data through transformations, combined with ensemble learning and deep neural network architecture.
result Significantly improved classification accuracy in predicting disk drive failure.
Locally learned synaptic failure enables complete Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference in neural networks.
method Biologically constrained neural network with synaptic failure and lateral inhibition.
result Synaptic failure allows sampling from both epistemic and aleatoric distributions.
We aim to predict and explain service failures in supply-chain networks, more precisely among last-mile pickup and delivery services to customers. We analyze a dataset of 500,000 services using (1) supervised classification with Random Forests, and (2) Association Rules. Our classifier reaches an average sensitivity of…
SSH-Net: A Deep Neural Network for Predicting Failure Time Distribution Functions under Competing Risks with GPU Data
problem Predicting failure time distribution functions under competing risks
method Structured Segmented Hazard Deep Neural Network (SSH-Net)
result Prediction accuracy validated through simulation studies and GPU data
Federated Learning aims to train distributed deep models without sharing the raw data with the centralized server. Similarly, in distributed inference of neural networks, by partitioning the network and distributing it across several physical nodes, activations and gradients are exchanged between physical nodes, rather…
Network analysis improves risk assessment for surety bonds.
problem Network effects in surety bonds increase risk assessment complexity.
method Modelled contractor network as directed graph, extended Friedkin-Johnsen model with stochastic process.
result Network effects increase average risk for surety organizations.
Deep neural networks predict CVCM track circuit failures early.
problem Subtle anomalies in CVCM track circuits lead to failures, causing disruptions.
method Deep neural networks classify anomalies before they escalate.
result Deep neural networks achieve 99.31% overall accuracy in detecting CVCM failures.
Improves FI-PINNs by combining re-sampling and subset simulation for better failure probability estimation.
problem Estimating failure probability in physics-informed neural networks (PINNs).
method Adaptive sampling with re-sampling and subset simulation, using cosine-annealing for uniform to adaptive transition.
result Significant improvement in estimating failure probability and generating new training points in the failure region.
Study constructs balanced datasets for seismic failure prediction.
problem Imbalanced datasets limit machine learning performance in seismic failure prediction.
method Framework with three steps: GMF identification, probability density estimation, and sample transformation.
result Framework improves machine learning performance in seismic failure mode prediction.
Paper proposes a method to predict disk failures using multi-layer domain adaptive learning.
problem Traditional machine learning models struggle to predict disk failures due to limited data.
method Multi-layer domain adaptive learning with source and target domains.
result The proposed method improves failure prediction accuracy on disk data with few failure samples.
Method uses Seq2Seq learning to automatically generate recovery commands for ICT systems.
problem Manual decision-making for recovery commands is time-consuming and error-prone.
method Seq2Seq neural network model trained on past logs and commands.
result The model can estimate accurate recovery commands from new failures.
We identify and study two common failure modes for early training in deep ReLU nets. For each we give a rigorous proof of when it occurs and how to avoid it, for fully connected and residual architectures. The first failure mode, exploding/vanishing mean activation length, can be avoided by initializing weights from a …
Adaptive Synaptic Failure Enables Sampling from Posterior Predictive Distributions in the Brainq-bio.NC
Brain uses synaptic failure to sample from posterior distributions.
problem Bayesian inference in the brain's probabilistic computations.
method Adapting synaptic failure to sample posterior predictive distributions.
result Synaptic failure enables sampling of complete posterior predictive distributions.
Predict water pipe failures using machine learning and survival analysis.
problem Difficulty in accessing water pipes for maintenance.
method Classical and modern classifiers for short-term prediction, survival analysis for long-term forecast, and oversampling technique for imbalanced data.
result Identifies important risk factors for water pipe failures.
Strength of weak layers in cascading failures on multiplex networks: case of the international trade networkphysics.soc-ph
Many real-world complex systems across natural, social, and economical domains consist of manifold layers to form multiplex networks. The multiple network layers give rise to nonlinear effect for the emergent dynamics of systems. Especially, weak layers that can potentially play significant role in amplifying the vulne…
Deep neural networks improve AFT model for non-linear predictors.
problem Nonlinearity in predictors of AFT models.
method Apply DNNs to fit AFT models using Gehan-type loss and sub-sampling.
result DeepR-AFT outperforms parametric and semiparametric models.
Distributed machine learning algorithms enable learning of models from datasets that are distributed over a network without gathering the data at a centralized location. While efficient distributed algorithms have been developed under the assumption of faultless networks, failures that can render these algorithms nonfu…
As economic entities become increasingly interconnected, a shock in a financial network can provoke significant cascading failures throughout the system. To study the systemic risk of financial systems, we create a bi-partite banking network model composed of banks and bank assets and propose a cascading failure model …
With the development of neural networks based machine learning and their usage in mission critical applications, voices are rising against the \textit{black box} aspect of neural networks as it becomes crucial to understand their limits and capabilities. With the rise of neuromorphic hardware, it is even more critical …
A lending scheme for a system of interconnected banks with probabilistic constraints of failureq-fin.MF
We derive a closed form solution for an optimal control problem related to an interbank lending schemes subject to terminal probability constraints on the failure of banks which are interconnected through a financial network. The derived solution applies to a real banks network by obtaining a general solution when the …
Assessing reliably the confidence of a deep neural network and predicting its failures is of primary importance for the practical deployment of these models. In this paper, we propose a new target criterion for model confidence, corresponding to the True Class Probability (TCP). We show how using the TCP is more suited…
Root Cause Analysis in Lithium-Ion Battery Production with FMEA-Based Large-Scale Bayesian Networkstat.AP
New method combines FMEA and Bayesian Network for root cause analysis in lithium-ion battery production.
problem Complex cause-effect relationships in lithium-ion battery production.
method Combining FMEA with Bayesian Network to detect and resolve inconsistencies.
result Holistic method builds large-scale cross-process Bayesian Failure Network for root cause analysis.
Adaptive PINNs improve accuracy by adding points where solutions are uncertain.
problem Inadequate sampling in PINNs leads to inaccurate solutions, especially near singularities.
method FI-PINNs use failure probability to dynamically add points, improving numerical accuracy.
result FI-PINNs achieve better accuracy through adaptive sampling, as proven by rigorous error bounds.
New method finds failures in high-fidelity simulators with fewer steps.
problem Finding failures in high-fidelity simulators is expensive and impractical.
method Adaptive stress testing with backward algorithm adaptation from low-fidelity to high-fidelity.
result Significantly fewer high-fidelity simulation steps needed to find failures.
In this paper we use a time-evolving graph which consists of a sequence of graph snapshots over time to model many real-world networks. We study the path classification problem in a time-evolving graph, which has many applications in real-world scenarios, for example, predicting path failure in a telecommunication netw…
Production networks and failure avalanchesphysics.soc-ph
Although standard economics textbooks are seldom interested in production networks, modern economies are more and more based upon suppliers/customers interactions. One can consider entire sectors of the economy as generalised supply chains. We will take this view in the present paper and study under which conditions lo…
This paper proposes a cascading failure mitigation strategy based on Reinforcement Learning (RL) method. Firstly, the principles of RL are introduced. Then, the Multi-Stage Cascading Failure (MSCF) problem is presented and its challenges are investigated. The problem is then tackled by the RL based on DC-OPF (Optimal P…
Credit networks represent a way of modeling trust between entities in a network. Nodes in the network print their own currency and trust each other for a certain amount of each other's currency. This allows the network to serve as a decentralized payment infrastructure---arbitrary payments can be routed through the net…
Study quantifies events leading to Terra project failure in 2022.
problem Terra project's fragility and dependency on Anchor protocol.
method Systematic review of social media news, hourly and transaction data analysis, network science techniques.
result Identified trigger events and analyzed dependency structures using network science.
Enhances systemic risk analysis by incorporating debt valuation factors.
problem Systemic risk in financial networks due to bank failures.
method Incorporates debt valuation factors into existing risk analysis frameworks.
result Additional debt valuation factors substantially influence risk assessment outcomes.
The 2008 financial crisis illustrated the need for a thorough, functional understanding of systemic risk in strongly interconnected financial structures. Dynamic processes on complex networks being intrinsically difficult, most recent studies of this problem have relied on numerical simulations. Here we report analytic…
Optimal intervention in economic networks modeled as influence maximization, with hard computational problems.
problem Optimal intervention in economic networks modeled as influence maximization.
method Transformed into influence maximization-like form, with theoretical and practical implications.
result Optimal intervention is NP-hard and cannot be approximated to a constant factor in polynomial time.
The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the network of correlations to reveal the changing relationships among the financial,…
The negative externalities from an individual bank failure to the whole system can be huge. One of the key purposes of bank regulation is to internalize the social costs of potential bank failures via capital charges. This study proposes a method to evaluate and allocate the systemic risk to different countries/regions…
A new method normalizes activations to match batch normalization without batch dependence.
problem Performance degradation with batch-independent normalization techniques.
method Proxy-Normalizing Activations
result Proxy-Normalization technique emulates batch normalization's behavior and performance.
We introduce a general framework for models of cascade and contagion processes on networks, to identify their commonalities and differences. In particular, models of social and financial cascades, as well as the fiber bundle model, the voter model, and models of epidemic spreading are recovered as special cases. To uni…
Neural Networks are being integrated into safety critical systems, e.g., perception systems for autonomous vehicles, which require trained networks to perform safely in novel scenarios. It is challenging to verify neural networks because their decisions are not explainable, they cannot be exhaustively tested, and finit…
Study identifies failure modes of machine learning models in out-of-distribution settings.
problem Machine learning models fail to generalize well to new, unseen data.
method Theoretical study of gradient-descent-trained linear classifiers on easy-to-learn tasks, followed by experiments on modern neural networks.
result Two failure modes of spurious correlations are uncovered: geometric and statistical.
In order to ensure trouble-free operation, prediction of hardware failures is essential. This applies especially to medical systems. Our goal is to determine hardware which needs to be exchanged before failing. In this work, we focus on predicting failures of 20-channel Head/Neck coils using image-related measurements.…
Differentiable methods fail due to spectral issues in Jacobians.
problem Chaos-based failures in differentiable programming.
method Trace failures to the spectrum of Jacobians.
result Criteria for avoiding spectral failure in optimization.
Study models systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
problem Systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
method Dynamic Time Warping, Temporal Graph Neural Network, Agent-Based Model.
result Geopolitical shocks cause more systemic damage than bank failures.
Method trains a debiased model from a biased one by focusing on samples that contradict the bias.
problem Training neural networks can lead to biased predictions due to spurious correlations.
method Train a pair of neural networks, intentionally biasing one and debiasing the other by focusing on contradictory samples.
result Our method significantly improves training against various types of biases, sometimes outperforming explicit supervision methods.
We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the effect of heterogeneous degree distributions, heterogeneous balance sheet size and…
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure---systemic ri…
End-to-End training (E2E) is becoming more and more popular to train complex Deep Network architectures. An interesting question is whether this trend will continue-are there any clear failure cases for E2E training? We study this question in depth, for the specific case of E2E training an ensemble of networks. Our str…
This work develops agents to learn generalizable policies for dynamic network environments.
problem Real-world network topologies change due to attackers, defenders, or system failures, leading to failures in adaptive ACD systems.
method Developing agents to learn generalizable policies across dynamic network environments.
result Agents can learn robust policies for dynamic network topologies and diverse attackers.