A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Unified theory explains housing cycle across metros, showing credit expansion impacts.
Credit expansion led to stronger household leverage cycles during the U.S. business cycle.
The paper analyzes MENA region's energy consumption and policy needs for renewable energy.
Peru's abundant natural resources and friendly trade policies has made the country a major economic player in both South America and the global community. Consequently, exports are playing an increasingly important role in Peru's national economy. Indeed, growing from 13.1% as of 1994, exports now contribute approximat…
Within the last two decades, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been observed as one of the prime instruments in the process of restructuring the European economies in transition. Many scholars argue that FDI is expected to be a source of valuable technology transfer thus might certainly have positive effects on host …
This paper is a contribution to interweaving two lines of research that have progressed in separate ways: network analyses of international trade and the literature on African trade and development. Gathering empirical data on African countries has important limitations and so does the space occupied by African countri…
Study shows credit expansion in mortgage markets influenced U.S. business cycle.
Local logarithmic export distributions show non-zero skewness that changes with exporter and destination characteristics.
Study the structure of international trade through hypergraphs.
Countries tend to diversify their exports by entering products that are related to their current exports. Yet this average behavior is not representative of every diversification path. In this paper, we introduce a method to identify periods when countries enter unrelated products. We analyze the economic diversificati…
Much of the analysis of economic growth has focused on the study of aggregate output. Here, we deviate from this tradition and look instead at the structure of output embodied in the network connecting countries to the products that they export.We characterize this network using four structural features: the negative r…
Despite the phenomenal success of deep learning in recent years, there remains a gap in understanding the fundamental mechanics of neural nets. More research is focussed on handcrafting complex and larger networks, and the design decisions are often ad-hoc and based on intuition. Some recent research has aimed to demys…
The highly detailed international trade data among all countries in the world during 1971-2000 shows that the kinds of export goods and the logarithmic GDP (gross domestic production) of a country has an S-shaped relationship. This indicates all countries can be divided into three stages accordingly. First, the poor co…
Export bans during pandemic worsen medical supply shortages globally.
Catapult phase in neural nets shows exponential loss growth before quick decrease.
Cooperation is a persistent behavioral pattern of entities pooling and sharing resources. Its ubiquity in nature poses a conundrum. Whenever two entities cooperate, one must willingly relinquish something of value to the other. Why is this apparent altruism favored in evolution? Classical solutions assume a net fitness…
For Adam Smith, wealth was related to the division of labor. As people and firms specialize in different activities, economic efficiency increases, suggesting that development is associated with an increase in the number of individual activities and with the complexity that emerges from the interactions between them. H…
Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. By combining tools from network science and econometrics, a robust and stable relationship between a country's productive structure and its economic growth has been established. Here we report that not only …
The objective of this paper is to fill a gap in the literature on internationalization, in relation to the absence of objective and measurable performance indicators on the process of how firms sequentially enter external markets. To that end, this research develops a quantitative tool that can be used as a performance…
Different shares of distinct commodity sectors in production, trade, and consumption illustrate how resources and capital are allocated and invested. Economic progress has been claimed to change the share distribution in a universal manner as exemplified by the Engel's law for the household expenditure and the shift fr…
The cluster analysis methods are used in order to perform a comparative study of 15 EU countries in relation with the fluctuations of some basic macroeconomic indicators. The statistical distances between countries are calculated for various moving time windows, and the time variation of the mean statistical distance i…
Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country's output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent 'economic complexity' research suggests. A country's product diversity reflects its diversity of knowhow or 'capabilities'. Researchers propo…
Spain uses DEA to select international markets for exports.
In this paper we analyse the bipartite Colombian firms-products network, throughout a period of five years, from 2010 to 2014. Our analysis depicts a strongly modular system, with several groups of firms specializing in the export of specific categories of products. These clusters have been detected by running the bipa…
This paper considers the growth in the length of one-dimensional trajectories as they are passed through deep ReLU neural networks, which, among other things, is one measure of the expressivity of deep networks. We generalise existing results, providing an alternative, simpler method for lower bounding expected traject…
In this paper, we consider three problems related to survival, growth, and goal reaching maximization of an investment portfolio with proportional net cash flow. We solve the problems in a market constrained due to borrowing prohibition. To solve the problems, we first construct an auxiliary market and then apply the d…
The paper aims to explore the impacts of bi-demographic structure on the current account and growth. Using a SVAR modeling, we track the dynamic impacts between these underlying variables. New insights have been developed about the dynamic interrelation between population growth, current account and economic growth. Th…
The abstract covers various aspects of eBusiness and eGovernment, including digital currencies, m-government services, gender inclusivity, eLearning, export performance, SME digitalization, and banking customer behavior.
Few attempts have been proposed in order to describe the statistical features and historical evolution of the export bipartite matrix countries/products. An important standpoint is the introduction of a products network, namely a hierarchical forest of products that models the formation and the evolution of commodities…
The interdependent nature of the global economy has become stronger with increases in international trade and investment. We propose a new model to reconstruct the international trade network and associated cost network by maximizing entropy based on local information about inward and outward trade. We show that the tr…
Economies grow by upgrading the type of products they produce and export. The technology, capital, institutions and skills needed to make such new products are more easily adapted from some products than others. We study the network of relatedness between products, or product space, finding that most upscale products a…
With this work it is analyzed the import and export of horticultural products between Portugal and the other world countries. It is used data about Portuguese international trade of vegetables from 2006 to 2010. The data were obtained from the INE (Statistics Portugal), gently given by the AICEP (Trade & Investment Age…
Study predicts global trade impacts using deep learning during the COVID-19 period.
The contradiction between physical and economical sciences concerning the growth of the production/consumption mechanism is analyzed. It is then shown that if one wishes to keep the security level stable or to enhance it in a growing economy the cost of security grows faster than the gross wealth. The result is a typic…
LSTMs outperform DFM in nowcasting COVID-19 economic variables.
Labor market institutions are central for modern economies, and their polices can directly affect unemployment rates and economic growth. At the individual level, unemployment often has a detrimental impact on people's well-being and health. At the national level, high employment is one of the central goals of any econ…
Tourism is one of the most important economic activities in the world: for many countries it represents the single largest product in their export basket. However, it is a product difficult to chart: "exporters" of tourism do not ship it abroad, but they welcome importers inside the country. Current research uses socia…
Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction algorithms to data on the international trade between countries. This data can b…
The growing conflicts in and about oil exporting regions and speculations about volatile oil prices during the last decade have renewed the public interest in predictions for the near future oil production and consumption. Unfortunately, studies from only 10 years ago, which tried to forecast the oil production during …
This work is the first part of a project dealing with an in-depth study of effective techniques used in econometrics in order to make accurate forecasts in the concrete framework of one of the major economies of the most productive Italian area, namely the province of Verona. In particular, we develop an approach mainl…
This paper aims to explore the mechanical effect of a company's share repurchase on earnings per share (EPS). In particular, while a share repurchase scheme will reduce the overall number of shares, suggesting that the EPS may increase, clearly the expenditure will reduce the net earnings of a company, introducing a tr…
This paper analyzes the equilibrium distribution of wealth in an economy where firms' productivities are subject to idiosyncratic shocks, returns on factors are determined in competitive markets, dynasties have linear consumption functions and government imposes taxes on capital and labour incomes and equally redistrib…
Using the United Nations COMTRADE database we apply the reduced Google matrix (REGOMAX) algorithm to analyze the multiproduct world trade in years 2004-2016. Our approach allows to determine the trade balance sensitivity of a group of countries to a specific product price increase from a specific exporting country taki…
Prediction is one of the major challenges in complex systems. The prediction methods have shown to be effective predictors of the evolution of networks. These methods can help policy makers to solve practical problems successfully and make better strategy for the future. In this work, we focus on exporting countries' d…
This study uses hierarchical structure methods (minimal spanning tree, (MST) and hierarchical tree, (HT)) to examine the hierarchical structures of the United State (US) foreign trade by using the real prices of their commodity export and import move together over time. We obtain the topological properties among the co…
Study on price formation in financial markets with a single default event.
New interpretation reconciles country and product complexity.
Study uses Google matrix analysis to show how COVID-19 changed international trade flows.