Genetic Algorithm improves Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model calibration for interest rates.
problem Calibrating the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model is difficult due to nonlinearity and parameter co-dependence.
method Applied Genetic Algorithm to optimize model parameters.
result Constructs stable interest rate curves and model parameters over time.
A new model explains relative spreads between economies using dynamic Nelson-Siegel and functional regression.
problem Analyzing and predicting relative spreads between economies in fixed income markets.
method State-space functional regression model incorporating dynamic Nelson-Siegel model and kernel PCA.
result The new model outperforms the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model in explaining relative spreads.
Investment strategies derived from commodity futures curves exploit dynamics in price movements.
problem Modeling and predicting the term structure of commodity futures prices.
method Employed the Nelson-Siegel framework to model term structure, and developed investment strategies based on changes in slope and curvature parameters.
result Significant profits generated from systematic strategies based on the change in slope, unrelated to risk factors and robust to transaction costs.
This study models Burundi's bond market yield curve using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models.
problem Modeling the yield curve of Burundian bond market for financial analytics.
method Collected treasury securities auction reports, computed zero-coupon rates, and applied Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models.
result Nelson-Siegel model is optimal for Burundian yield curve modeling.
Yield curve modeling is an essential problem in finance. In this work, we explore the use of Bayesian statistical methods in conjunction with Nelson-Siegel model. We present the hierarchical Bayesian model for the parameters of the Nelson-Siegel yield function. We implement the MAP estimates via BFGS algorithm in rstan…
Nelson and Siegel curves are widely used to fit the observed term structure of interest rates in a particular date. By the other hand, several interest rate models have been developed such their initial forward rate curve can be adjusted to any observed data, as the Ho-Lee and the Hull and White one factor models. In t…
A robust machine learning approach forecasts U.S. Treasury yields, reducing risk for investors.
problem Noisy and uncertain U.S. Treasury yields pose risk to forecast users.
method Formulates yield curve forecasting as a distributionally robust problem, combining factor models and machine learning.
result Robust forecast combinations improve out-of-sample performance across different maturity periods.
We orthogonalize the NSS model to condition and diagnose its ill-conditioned parameters.
problem The ill-conditioning of the NSS model's design matrix.
method Exact orthogonal reparametrization via QR decomposition.
result Orthogonalization isolates the conditioning structure and maintains fit uncertainty.
In this work we introduce Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) interest rate models driven by fractional Brownian motions. By using support arguments we prove that the resulting model is arbitrage free under proportional transaction costs in the same spirit of Guasoni [Math. Finance 16 (2006) 569-582]. In particular, we obtain a …
Neural network model improves robustness of mortgage bond yield curve estimation.
problem Overfitting and instability in traditional yield curve estimation methods for small mortgage bond markets.
method Neural network framework with a new loss function for smoothness and stability.
result Empirical results show more robust and stable yield curve estimates compared to existing methods.
We derive an equation of motion for interest-rate yield curves by applying a minimum Fisher information variational approach to the implied probability density. By construction, solutions to the equation of motion recover observed bond prices. More significantly, the form of the resulting equation explains the success …
Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the financialization of futures markets in the early 2000s, we investigate if these extant mod…
The paper contributes to the rare literature modeling term structure of crude oil markets. We explain term structure of crude oil prices using dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, and propose to forecast them with the generalized regression framework based on neural networks. The newly proposed framework is empirically tested …
Classifies shapes of yield curves in the Svensson family.
problem Classifying shapes of yield curves in the Svensson family.
method Complete classification of shapes using mathematical analysis.
result Certain complex shapes cannot appear after a deterministic time horizon.
Metaheuristics improve yield curve estimation for Costa Rica.
problem Estimating the yield curve for Costa Rica using historical data.
method Used Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models with four metaheuristics (Ant colony, Genetic, Particle Swarm, Simulated Annealing) for optimization.
result Metaheuristics achieved better results than classical methods, especially Particle Swarm and Simulated Annealing.
Paper uses RL for dynamic swaption hedging, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Dynamic hedging of swaptions using reinforcement learning.
method Design agents with three objective functions to adapt hedging strategies dynamically.
result Deep hedging strategies using two swaps outperform traditional methods, even with model misspecification.
Deep learning framework for bond and yield curve forecasting with no-arbitrage constraints.
problem Arbitrage-free yield curve and bond price forecasting.
method Combines Kalman, extended Kalman, and particle filters with LSTM/CLSTM, and introduces AER term.
result Arbitrage regularization improves forecast accuracy, especially at short maturities.
Study on liquidity dynamics in Uniswap v3 pools using statistical methods.
problem Characterize liquidity in Uniswap v3 pools.
method Functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and dynamic factor methods.
result Liquidity dynamics in Uniswap v3 pools are well-captured by a low-order Legendre polynomial basis.
Bayesian model predicts interest rates with short-term accuracy and long-term stability.
problem Improving short- and long-term prediction of time series with temporary non-stationary behavior.
method Time-varying autoregressive model with Bayesian regularization and MCMC inference.
result Model outperforms existing methods in both short and long-term predictions.
The study constructs models for SOFR term rates using futures data.
problem Disruption of the LIBOR market and lack of liquid SOFR derivatives.
method Dynamic arbitrage-free models using historical SOFR futures prices.
result Shadow-rate extension needed for zero-boundary term rates.
Machine learning models outperform traditional econometric methods for forecasting term structure of government bonds
problem Forecasting the term structure of government bonds
method Combining traditional econometric models with neural network architectures
result Neural network models consistently outperform traditional models in both forecasting accuracy and portfolio performance