A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Develops a framework to estimate NBA player salary ROI.
Method predicts NBA players' multi-modal movement trajectories.
In this study we focus on the prediction of basketball games in the Euroleague competition using machine learning modelling. The prediction is a binary classification problem, predicting whether a match finishes 1 (home win) or 2 (away win). Data is collected from the Euroleague's official website for the seasons 2016-…
We study the problem of training sequential generative models for capturing coordinated multi-agent trajectory behavior, such as offensive basketball gameplay. When modeling such settings, it is often beneficial to design hierarchical models that can capture long-term coordination using intermediate variables. Furtherm…
In this paper, we predict the likelihood of a player making a shot in basketball from multiagent trajectories. Previous approaches to similar problems center on hand-crafting features to capture domain specific knowledge. Although intuitive, recent work in deep learning has shown this approach is prone to missing impor…
Study examines how BRICS nations' economies respond to COVID-19.
National statistical systems are the enterprises tasked with collecting, validating and reporting societal attributes. These data serve many purposes - they allow governments to improve services, economic actors to traverse markets, and academics to assess social theories. National statistical systems vary in quality, …
We develop a machine learning approach to represent and analyze the underlying spatial structure that governs shot selection among professional basketball players in the NBA. Typically, NBA players are discussed and compared in an heuristic, imprecise manner that relies on unmeasured intuitions about player behavior. T…
Investigates sports betting strategies using modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion.
Cointegration helps insurers understand long-range mortality patterns.
The paper proposes using experts' insights in machine learning tasks.
New complete panel dataset for LMICs helps analyze innovation and development.
Probabilistic matrix factorization (PMF) is a powerful method for modeling data associated with pairwise relationships, finding use in collaborative filtering, computational biology, and document analysis, among other areas. In many domains, there is additional information that can assist in prediction. For example, wh…
Probabilistic matrix factorization (PMF) is a powerful method for modeling data associ- ated with pairwise relationships, Finding use in collaborative Filtering, computational bi- ology, and document analysis, among other areas. In many domains, there are additional covariates that can assist in prediction. For example…
Study shows cryptocurrency price fluctuations become more similar to national currencies over time.
Data mining revealed a cluster of economic, psychological, social and cultural indicators that in combination predicted corruption and wealth of European nations. This prosperity syndrome of self-reliant citizens, efficient division of labor, a sophisticated scientific community, and respect for the law, was clearly di…
We present a method that learns to integrate temporal information, from a learned dynamics model, with ambiguous visual information, from a learned vision model, in the context of interacting agents. Our method is based on a graph-structured variational recurrent neural network (Graph-VRNN), which is trained end-to-end…
In recent years numerous advanced malware, aka advanced persistent threats (APT) are allegedly developed by nation-states. The task of attributing an APT to a specific nation-state is extremely challenging for several reasons. Each nation-state has usually more than a single cyber unit that develops such advanced malwa…
Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly controlled with respect to national wealth. Also, the problem of eliminating extreme p…
Study models systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
Malware allegedly developed by nation-states, also known as advanced persistent threats (APT), are becoming more common. The task of attributing an APT to a specific nation-state or classifying it to the correct APT family is challenging for several reasons. First, each nation-state has more than a single cyber unit th…
Why do nations produce scientific research? This is a fundamental problem in the field of social studies of science. The paper confronts this question here by showing vital determinants of science to explain the sources of social power and wealth creation by nations. Firstly, this study suggests a new general definitio…
The DoD needs a robust process to evaluate AI/ML model performance and robustness.
Discriminatory trade liberalization policies are becoming more popular among world economies. Countries are motivated to enter for regional trade agreements to capture faster economic growth for alleviating poverty. In developing economies like most of the member countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations…
Many natural systems, such as neurons firing in the brain or basketball teams traversing a court, give rise to time series data with complex, nonlinear dynamics. We can gain insight into these systems by decomposing the data into segments that are each explained by simpler dynamic units. Building on switching linear dy…
Study examines the impact of employment benefit costs on firm profitability.
We aim to create a framework for transfer learning using latent factor models to learn the dependence structure between a larger source dataset and a target dataset. The methodology is motivated by our goal of building a risk-assessment model for surgery patients, using both institutional and national surgical outcomes…
Filters on order flow improve short-term market directionality.
One unexamined assumption in foreign ownership regulation is the notion that majority voting rights translate to 'effective control'. This assumption is so deeply entrenched in foreign investments law that possession of majority voting rights can determine the nationality of a corporation and its capacity to engage in …
CPAS uses machine learning to plan hospital resources for COVID-19.
Paper presents an econophysics model for mixed economies.
We study the performance of the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate in the extraordinary period from September 6, 2011 and January 15, 2015 when the Swiss National Bank enforced a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. Based on the analogy between Brownian motion in finance and physics, the first-order effect …
We study heterogeneity in the effect of a mindset intervention on student-level performance through an observational dataset from the National Study of Learning Mindsets (NSLM). Our analysis uses machine learning (ML) to address the following associated problems: assessing treatment group overlap and covariate balance,…
We study the relationship between national culture and the disposition effect by investigating international differences in the degree of investors' disposition effect. We utilize brokerage data of 387,993 traders from 83 countries and find great variation in the degree of the disposition effect across the world. We fi…
Labor market institutions are central for modern economies, and their polices can directly affect unemployment rates and economic growth. At the individual level, unemployment often has a detrimental impact on people's well-being and health. At the national level, high employment is one of the central goals of any econ…
We propose a diffusion process to describe the global dynamic evolution of credit operations at a national level given observed operations at a subnational level in a sovereign country. Empirical analysis with a unique dataset from Brazilian federate constituents supports the conclusions. Despite the heterogeneity obse…
Analyzes national real estate investment risks and returns.
Electronic health records (EHR) are increasingly being used for constructing disease risk prediction models. Feature engineering in EHR data however is challenging due to their highly dimensional and heterogeneous nature. Low-dimensional representations of EHR data can potentially mitigate these challenges. In this pap…
2 Diabetes is a leading worldwide public health concern, and its increasing prevalence has significant health and economic importance in all nations. The condition is a multifactorial disorder with a complex aetiology. The genetic determinants remain largely elusive, with only a handful of identified candidate genes. G…
We estimate treatment cost-savings from early cancer diagnosis. For breast, lung, prostate and colorectal cancers and melanoma, which account for more than 50% of new incidences projected in 2017, we combine published cancer treatment cost estimates by stage with incidence rates by stage at diagnosis. We extrapolate to…
We study the problem of controllable generation of long-term sequential behaviors, where the goal is to calibrate to multiple behavior styles simultaneously. In contrast to the well-studied areas of controllable generation of images, text, and speech, there are two questions that pose significant challenges when genera…
This is an expanded and updated version of a lecture series I gave at Seoul National University in September 1997. It is in some sense an update of the 1979 Griffiths and Harris paper with a similar title. I discuss: Homogeneous varieties, Topology and consequences Projective differential invariants, Varieties with deg…
Georg de Buquoy, Lord de Vaux, lived in Nove Hrady, Prague and Cerveny Hradek for most of his productive life. From his extensive scientific contributions, both theoretical and experimental, we expand here the discussion of his contributions to mathematical economy. He is mainly celebrated as the first persons to defin…
Study on financial impacts of zombie outbreak on economy.
Using the most comprehensive source of commercially available data on the US National Market System, we analyze all quotes and trades associated with Dow 30 stocks in 2016 from the vantage point of a single and fixed frame of reference. We find that inefficiencies created in part by the fragmentation of the equity mark…
Variational inference (VI) is widely used as an efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. It posits a family of approximating distributions and finds the closest member to the exact posterior . Closeness is usually measured via a divergence from to . While successful, this approach al…
These notes have been prepared as reading material for the mini-course that the author gave at IMS, National University of Singapore, as part of the "Summer school on the moduli space of Higgs bundles".
This paper uses NARX neural networks for macroeconomic forecasting and goal setting.