New method selects recent similar periods for better electricity price forecasting.
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Trend · papers per month
Pretraining with expert demonstrations have been found useful in speeding up the training process of deep reinforcement learning algorithms since less online simulation data is required. Some people use supervised learning to speed up the process of feature learning, others pretrain the policies by imitating expert dem…
New research finds many coreset methods for logistic regression are not better than simple sampling.
Continuous reinforcement learning such as DDPG and A3C are widely used in robot control and autonomous driving. However, both methods have theoretical weaknesses. While DDPG cannot control noises in the control process, A3C does not satisfy the continuity conditions under the Gaussian policy. To address these concerns,…
This paper aims to evaluate the suitability of current deep learning methods for clinical workflow especially by focusing on dermatology. Although deep learning methods have been attempted to get dermatologist level accuracy in several individual conditions, it has not been rigorously tested for common clinical complai…
This work addresses missing data imputation for MNAR scenarios with identifiable deep generative models.
New method improves level set estimation with theoretical guarantees.
Innovative method solves nonconvex optimization on manifolds.
With the purpose of examining biased updates in variance-reduced stochastic gradient methods, we introduce SVAG, a SAG/SAGA-like method with adjustable bias. SVAG is analyzed in a cocoercive root-finding setting, a setting which yields the same results as in the usual smooth convex optimization setting for the ordinary…
New hyperbolic 3-manifolds with multiple cusps are found that sound the same but look different.
In this work we establish the first linear convergence result for the stochastic heavy ball method. The method performs SGD steps with a fixed stepsize, amended by a heavy ball momentum term. In the analysis, we focus on minimizing the expected loss and not on finite-sum minimization, which is typically a much harder p…
Supervised learning requires a sufficient training dataset which includes all label. However, there are cases that some class is not in the training data. Zero-Shot Learning (ZSL) is the task of predicting class that is not in the training data(target class). The existing ZSL method is done for image data. However, the…
Saliency methods aim to explain the predictions of deep neural networks. These methods lack reliability when the explanation is sensitive to factors that do not contribute to the model prediction. We use a simple and common pre-processing step ---adding a constant shift to the input data--- to show that a transformatio…
Recent work has shown great promise in explaining neural network behavior. In particular, feature attribution methods explain which features were most important to a model's prediction on a given input. However, for many tasks, simply knowing which features were important to a model's prediction may not provide enough …
Mean shift clustering finds the modes of the data probability density by identifying the zero points of the density gradient. Since it does not require to fix the number of clusters in advance, the mean shift has been a popular clustering algorithm in various application fields. A typical implementation of the mean shi…
New unsupervised feature selection method for imbalanced datasets.
Deep generative models can learn to generate realistic-looking images, but many of the most effective methods are adversarial and involve a saddlepoint optimization, which requires a careful balancing of training between a generator network and a critic network. Maximum mean discrepancy networks (MMD-nets) avoid this i…
In this short note we use methods of Friedl, Livingston and Zentner to show that there are knots that are not algebraically concordant to a connected sum of positive and negative L-space knots.
Bayesian method improves multivariate periodontal outcome modeling.
Sequence probability predicts correctness in LLMs, but not for repeated prompts
In this paper we introduce two new methods for constructing harmonic morphisms from solvable Lie groups. The first method yields global solutions from any simply connected nilpotent Lie group and from any Riemannian symmetric space of non-compact type and rank . The second method provides us with global solutio…
A major challenge in reinforcement learning is exploration, when local dithering methods such as epsilon-greedy sampling are insufficient to solve a given task. Many recent methods have proposed to intrinsically motivate an agent to seek novel states, driving the agent to discover improved reward. However, while state-…
Adaptive gradient methods are workhorses in deep learning. However, the convergence guarantees of adaptive gradient methods for nonconvex optimization have not been thoroughly studied. In this paper, we provide a fine-grained convergence analysis for a general class of adaptive gradient methods including AMSGrad, RMSPr…
New method estimates causal structure from sparse data.
We describe a method for parameter estimation in bipartite probabilistic graphical models for joint prediction of clinical conditions from the electronic medical record. The method does not rely on the availability of gold-standard labels, but rather uses noisy labels, called anchors, for learning. We provide a likelih…
Advanced and effective collaborative filtering methods based on explicit feedback assume that unknown ratings do not follow the same model as the observed ones (\emph{not missing at random}). In this work, we build on this assumption, and introduce a novel dynamic matrix factorization framework that allows to set an ex…
Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a new knowledge discovery method that is used for text mining, signal processing, bioinformatics, and consumer analysis. However, its basic property as a learning machine is not yet clarified, as it is not a regular statistical model, resulting that theoretical optimization me…
Method controls treatment risk in learning beneficial allocations.
Kernel learning methods are among the most effective learning methods and have been vigorously studied in the past decades. However, when tackling with complicated tasks, classical kernel methods are not flexible or "rich" enough to describe the data and hence could not yield satisfactory performance. In this paper, vi…
Recent variational inference methods use stochastic gradient estimators whose variance is not well understood. Theoretical guarantees for these estimators are important to understand when these methods will or will not work. This paper gives bounds for the common "reparameterization" estimators when the target is smoot…
This work analyzes the statistical properties of adaptive gradient methods.
Unified framework for cost-sensitive ensemble learning.
Tensor decomposition methods are popular tools for learning latent variables given only lower-order moments of the data. However, the standard assumption is that we have sufficient data to estimate these moments to high accuracy. In this work, we consider the case in which certain dimensions of the data are not always …
We present a new simple method of estimating stochastic volatility and its volatility. This method is applicable to both cross-sectional and time-series data. Moreover, this method does not require volatility data series.
Robust PCA, the problem of PCA in the presence of outliers has been extensively investigated in the last few years. Here we focus on Robust PCA in the column sparse outlier model. The existing methods for column sparse outlier model assumes either the knowledge of the dimension of the lower dimensional subspace or the …
When firms want to buy back their own shares, they have a choice between several alternatives. If they often carry out open market repurchase, they also increasingly rely on banks through complex buyback contracts involving option components, e.g. accelerated share repurchase contracts, VWAP-minus profit-sharing contra…
Developed scalable Monte Carlo method for VIX option pricing.
In recent years, it has been found that neural networks can be easily fooled by adversarial examples, which is a potential safety hazard in some safety-critical applications. Many researchers have proposed various method to make neural networks more robust to white-box adversarial attacks, but an effective method have …
Despite the widespread usage of machine learning throughout organizations, there are some key principles that are commonly missed. In particular: 1) There are at least four main families for supervised learning: logical modeling methods, linear combination methods, case-based reasoning methods, and iterative summarizat…
We introduce new obstructions to topological knot concordance. These are obtained from amenable groups in Strebel's class, possibly with torsion, using a recently suggested -theoretic method due to Orr and the author. Concerning -solvable knots which are defined in terms of certain Whitney towers of height $h…
We start recalling with critical eyes the mathematical methods used in gauge theory and prove that they are not coherent with continuum mechanics, in particular the analytical mechanics of rigid bodies or hydrodynamics, though using the same group theoretical methods and despite the well known couplings existing betwee…
There is a growing body of work that proposes methods for mitigating bias in machine learning systems. These methods typically rely on access to protected attributes such as race, gender, or age. However, this raises two significant challenges: (1) protected attributes may not be available or it may not be legal to use…
Electron Cryo-Tomography (ECT) allows 3D visualization of subcellular structures at the submolecular resolution in close to the native state. However, due to the high degree of structural complexity and imaging limits, the automatic segmentation of cellular components from ECT images is very difficult. To complement an…
Unsupervised classification methods learn a discriminative classifier from unlabeled data, which has been proven to be an effective way of simultaneously clustering the data and training a classifier from the data. Various unsupervised classification methods obtain appealing results by the classifiers learned in an uns…
In this letter, we introduce a distributed Nesterov method, termed as , that does not require doubly-stochastic weight matrices. Instead, the implementation is based on a simultaneous application of both row- and column-stochastic weights that makes this method applicable to arbitrary (strongly-connected…
The article examines in some detail the convergence rate and mean-square-error performance of momentum stochastic gradient methods in the constant step-size and slow adaptation regime. The results establish that momentum methods are equivalent to the standard stochastic gradient method with a re-scaled (larger) step-si…
In the past years, many new explanation methods have been proposed to achieve interpretability of machine learning predictions. However, the utility of these methods in practical applications has not been researched extensively. In this paper we present the results of a human-grounded evaluation of SHAP, an explanation…
We prove that the knot groups of and are not bi-orderable. These are the only two knot groups up to 7 crossings whose bi-orderability was not known. Our method applies to a very broad class of knots.