Study finds strong link between crypto narratives and prices.
problem Understanding the impact of crypto narratives on prices.
method Topic modeling of Twitter data combined with sentiment analysis.
result Strong correlation between narratives and crypto prices.
A new platform models how narratives influence financial markets.
problem Explaining irrational market behaviors through narratives.
method Integrated opinion dynamics and agent-based modeling.
result Initial results show how narratives shape financial outcomes.
Algorithm improves SLR efficiency in financial narratives.
problem Fragmented understanding of financial narratives.
method NLP, clustering, interpretability tools.
result Unified narrative modeling approaches needed.
Developing an AI economist agent using RAG, knowledge graphs, and LLMs for economic scenario analysis.
problem Economic scenario analysis using large language models and knowledge graphs.
method Proposing an RAG-based AI economist framework that utilizes knowledge graphs and LLMs.
result Improves economic coherence and traceability in generated reports.
Improved earnings predictions through text-morphed earnings calls.
problem Improving earnings prediction models using narrative information.
method Introducing a text-morphing methodology to generate counterfactual transcripts.
result Analysts over-react to sentiment and under-react to risk and uncertainty.
Study finds whitepaper narratives do not predict market factor structure.
problem Predicting market behavior from cryptocurrency whitepaper claims.
method Zero-shot NLP classification combined with CP tensor decomposition of market data.
result Weak alignment between whitepaper claims and market statistics and latent factors.
Study shows GPT's earnings forecasts are human-like but not always accurate.
problem Information friction in AI-generated financial analysis.
method Examined GPT's earnings forecasts following corporate earnings releases and proposed a diagnostic framework.
result GPT's narrative attention is consistent and human-like but not always associated with higher forecast accuracy.
This paper presents the contemporary Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing as being equivalent to approaches to pricing that emerged before 1700 in the context of Virtue Ethics. This is done by considering the history of science and mathematics in the thirteenth and seventeenth century. An explanation as to why these ap…
Platform combines RL and language models to study narrative influence on AI decisions.
problem Understanding how narrative elements shape AI decision-making.
method Dual-system architecture with reinforcement learning and language model integration.
result Initial experiments show narrative frameworks can influence AI decision-making.
Automated prediction of valence, one key feature of a person's emotional state, from individuals' personal narratives may provide crucial information for mental healthcare (e.g. early diagnosis of mental diseases, supervision of disease course, etc.). In the Interspeech 2018 ComParE Self-Assessed Affect challenge, the …
Analyzes news graphs to predict financial market dislocations.
problem Predicting financial market dislocations using news content.
method Extracts entities from news articles, aggregates them into graphs, applies network analysis, and uses sentiment analysis.
result Identifies high entropy in news graphs correlates with financial market dislocations.
We investigate a multi-household DSGE model in which past aggregate consumption impacts the confidence, and therefore consumption propensity, of individual households. We find that such a minimal setup is extremely rich, and leads to a variety of realistic output dynamics: high output with no crises; high output with i…
Automatic understanding of domain specific texts in order to extract useful relationships for later use is a non-trivial task. One such relationship would be between railroad accidents' causes and their correspondent descriptions in reports. From 2001 to 2016 rail accidents in the U.S. cost more than $4.6B. Railroads i…
Paper analyzes systematic jump risk around the clock using news narratives.
problem Identifying and managing priced risks in real-time market conditions.
method Combining high-frequency market data with news narratives classified by an LLM.
result Significant heterogeneity in risk premia, with macroeconomic news commanding the largest premium.
CrystalCandle creates user-friendly explanations for machine learning models.
problem Low trust in predictive models due to lack of interpretability.
method End-to-end pipeline for model interpretation, including Model Importer, Interpreter, Narrative Generator, and Exporter.
result CrystalCandle leads to higher adoption rates and improved downstream metrics.
Detects systematic anomalies in consumer complaints using NLP.
problem Detecting small, frequent anomalies in consumer complaints.
method NLP conversion of narratives, followed by anomaly detection algorithm.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of NLP for detecting systematic anomalies.
AI uses language models to find instrumental variables quickly.
problem Finding valid instrumental variables is a challenging and heuristic process.
method Uses large language models to search for new instrumental variables through narratives and counterfactual reasoning.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of multi-step and role-playing prompting strategies for LLMs.
Study detects SLI in children from spontaneous narrative transcripts.
problem Detecting Specific Language Impairment (SLI) in children.
method Three-stage pipeline: feature extraction, dimensionality reduction, and classification.
result 97.13% accuracy in identifying SLI from transcripts.
Narrative disclosures in 10-K filings improve bankruptcy prediction beyond accounting ratios.
problem Traditional bankruptcy prediction models rely on accounting ratios, which may not capture early warning signals.
method Developed a PB Stress Score based on distress-specific language in 10-K narratives, evaluated against accounting and dictionary benchmarks.
result Adding the PB Stress Score increases AUC from 0.8323 to 0.9019 and improves top-decile bankruptcy capture from 44.12% to 64.71%.
Analyst reports contain valuable information for investment decisions.
problem Investment value in analyst reports is not fully understood or utilized.
method Embedded analyst reports with LLMs and ML forecasts of future returns.
result Portfolios formed on analyst report narratives outperform numerical forecasts and established factors.
LSTMs outperform DFM in nowcasting COVID-19 economic variables.
problem Timely estimation of macroeconomic variables during the pandemic.
method Comparison of LSTM and DFM performance on three variables (export values, volumes, and services exports).
result LSTMs outperformed DFM in two-thirds of variable/quarter combinations.
LLMs can help explain credit risk models but not autonomously.
problem Leveraging LLMs for post-hoc explainability in credit risk models.
method Comparison of LLM outputs with SHAP and coefficient-based attributions on three LMs.
result LLMs reliably preserve feature-importance rankings but poorly align with autonomous explanations.
(The third edition corrects minor typos and adds 3 chapters synthesized from published papers plus an appendix on maximum entropy distributions.) The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin ta…
Attention mechanisms in deep neural networks have achieved excellent performance on sequence-prediction tasks. Here, we show that these recently-proposed attention-based mechanisms---in particular, the Transformer with its parallelizable self-attention layers, and the Memory Fusion Network with attention across modalit…
In this paper we present an early Apprenticeship Learning approach to mimic the behaviour of different players in a short adaption of the interactive fiction Anchorhead. Our motivation is the need to understand and simulate player behaviour to create systems to aid the design and personalisation of Interactive Narrativ…
FinCausal 2020 task detects financial document causality.
problem Detect causal relationships in financial documents.
method Binary classification and relation extraction tasks.
result 16 teams participated, 13 submitted system descriptions.
Framework quantifies financial NLP robustness under regime shifts.
problem Semantic and causal drift in financial news narratives.
method Four metrics: FCAS, PCS, TSV, NLICS.
result Transformer models are more affected by semantic drift.
A text mining approach is proposed based on latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) to analyze the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) consumer complaints. The proposed approach aims to extract latent topics in the CFPB complaint narratives, and explores their associated trends over time. The time trends will then be…
Paper develops a method for valid inference using language model predictions from verbal autopsy narratives.
problem Valid inference from verbal autopsy narratives for public health decision-making.
method Develops multiPPI++ method for valid inference using NLP techniques for COD prediction.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of multiPPI++ in handling transportability issues and recovering ground truth estimates.
We present a new recurrent neural network topology to enhance state-of-the-art machine learning systems by incorporating a broader context. Our approach overcomes recent limitations with extended narratives through a multi-layered computational approach to generate an abstract context representation. Therefore, the dev…
Unified model integrates text and time series for financial forecasting.
problem Challenges in integrating complementary modalities for improved forecasting.
method Modality-specific experts and cross-modal alignment framework.
result State-of-the-art performance on financial forecasting task.
Study uses LLM to extract and compare segment disclosures from financial filings.
problem Challenges in completeness and comparability of segment disclosures in financial reports.
method Developed a large language model framework to extract and preserve segment information from Form 10-K filings.
result The LLM accurately extracts segment-level information and addresses cross-period knowledge questions.
Paper fine-tunes a language model to predict long-term stock buy signals.
problem Predicting long-term stock price movements with narrative text.
method Fine-tuning a small language model on 10-K reports for buy/sell decisions.
result Buy signals generated from 10-K text are most precise at 6 and 9 months, providing 4.8-9% improvement over random selection.
LLMs outperform human analysts in predicting earnings direction.
problem Evaluating financial statements without narrative or industry-specific information.
method Trained GPT4 on standardized, anonymous financial statements and instructed to predict earnings direction.
result LLMs predict earnings directionally with accuracy comparable to narrowly trained ML models.
Study finds monthly SIPs outperform first-day SIPs in Nifty 50 by 0.5-2.5% annually.
problem Underexplored impact of SIP timing in India's equity market.
method 22-year analysis using multi-layered statistical framework (non-parametric tests, effect size metrics, SSD).
result Monthly SIPs (EXP-SIP) outperform first-day SIPs (FTD-SIP) by 0.5-2.5% annually over short-to-medium-term horizons.
Framework detects influential actors in disinformation networks.
problem Identifying and countering hostile influence operations on social media.
method Combines NLP, ML, graph analytics, and causal inference.
result 96% precision, 79% recall, 96% PR-curve area for IO detection.
Paper evaluates whether AI is a bubble or a productivity revolution.
problem Determining if AI investments are a bubble or a sustainable technology.
method Hybrid review and diagnostic framework combining asset pricing foundations and modern econometric methods.
result AI investments show both genuine fundamentals and bubble-like fragilities.
Encouraging sustainable mobility patterns is at the forefront of policymaking at all scales of governance as the collective consciousness surrounding climate change continues to expand. Not every community, however, possesses the necessary economic or socio-cultural capital to encourage modal shifts away from private m…
The Lady Maisry ballads afford us a framework within which to segment a storyline into its major components. Segments and as a consequence nodal points are discussed for nine different variants of the Lady Maisry story of a (young) woman being burnt to death by her family, on account of her becoming pregnant by a forei…
Framework improves clinical timeline reconstruction from text and tables.
problem Temporal precision and event timing in clinical narratives and EHRs.
method Retrieval-augmented multimodal alignment framework.
result Consistently improves absolute timestamp accuracy and temporal concordance.
Interpolation hurts robust generalization even without noise.
problem The challenge of robust generalization in the absence of noise.
method Avoiding interpolation through ridge regularization.
result Ridge regularization improves robust generalization.
Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.
problem Accuracy of economic theories and policies depend on economic variables and processes.
method Identify and analyze overlooked economic variables and processes.
result Many economic variables and processes not accounted for in current theories.
The recent adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) by health care providers has introduced an important source of data that provides detailed and highly specific insights into patient phenotypes over large cohorts. These datasets, in combination with machine learning and statistical approaches, generate new opport…
We model anomaly and change in data by embedding the data in an ultrametric space. Taking our initial data as cross-tabulation counts (or other input data formats), Correspondence Analysis allows us to endow the information space with a Euclidean metric. We then model anomaly or change by an induced ultrametric. The in…
Modeling business cycles via collective risk fluctuations in economic agents' risk space.
problem Understanding and predicting business cycles through economic agents' risk dynamics.
method Continuous numerical risk grades for economic agents, modeling collective economic variables and flows as functions of risk coordinates, deriving equations for their evolution.
result Business and credit cycles are explained as fluctuations of collective economic variables and their mean risks in the risk space of economic agents.
'Ergodicity economics' is criticized as pseudoscience.
problem Flawed conceptual basis of mainstream economic theory.
method Claims 'ergodicity economics' is more parsimonious and clearer.
result Peters' approach has not produced falsifiable implications.
This paper presents a simple model to measure the relative economic growth of economic systems. The model considers S-Shaped patterns of economic growth that, represented with a linear model, measure how an economic system grows in comparison with another one. In particular, this model introduces an approach which indi…
Study reveals investor behavior in NFT bubbles.
problem Understanding retail investor behavior in asset bubbles.
method Systematic study of NFTs using public blockchain data.
result Sophisticated investors outperform others in NFT bubbles.