A new method TNW-CATE estimates treatment effects using neural networks.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with limited controls and many treatments.
method Trainable Nadaraya-Watson regression with shared parameters neural network.
result TNW-CATE outperforms traditional methods in various simulation experiments.
New insights into Nadaraya-Watson interpolators show varied generalization behaviors.
problem Understanding generalization of interpolating predictors, especially in noisy data.
method Revisiting Nadaraya-Watson estimator with a single hyperparameter.
result Multiple overfitting behaviors exist, ranging from catastrophic to tempered.
Paper provides an upper bound for bias of Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression.
problem Estimating bias of Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression for finite bandwidths.
method Proposes an upper bound for bias under Lipschitz assumptions, extending to discontinuous derivatives and multidimensional domains.
result Upper bound on bias for finite bandwidths, tighter than previous infinitesimal bandwidth analysis.
New insights into simple kernel smoothing reveal surprising asymptotics.
problem Understanding precise asymptotics of Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing.
method Using ideas from the random energy model in statistical physics.
result Sharp asymptotics for the NW predictor on the sphere.
Estimates time-series drifts from i.i.d. data using a direct Nadaraya-Watson plug-in method.
problem Nonparametric estimation of Schrödinger bridge drifts from single time interval data.
method Direct Nadaraya-Watson plug-in estimator based on kernelized numerator and denominator terms.
result Uniform non-asymptotic bound, CLT under undersmoothing, and adaptive bandwidth selector.
Improved local feature attributions using neighbourhood reference distributions.
problem Misleading results from global population in local model behaviour.
method Formulation of neighbourhood reference distributions and self-normalised importance sampling.
result Neighbourhood Shapley values provide meaningful sparse feature attributions.
Study on predicting graph labels at nodes using local averaging and distance estimation.
problem Predicting graph labels at nodes given observations at other nodes.
method Local averaging and distance estimation methods for graph regression.
result Alternative methods can achieve standard nonparametric rates even when graph neighborhoods are too large or small.
The paper introduces a method to quantify uncertainty in neural networks without parametric assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification for neural network predictions.
method Nonparametric estimation of conditional label distribution using Nadaraya-Watson kernel.
result The method effectively disentangles aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
This study improves estimation of locally stationary functional time series using NW method.
problem Accurately capturing time-dependence in locally stationary functional time series with time-varying covariates.
method Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimation procedure for the conditional distribution of LSFTS.
result Established convergence rates of NW estimator for LSFTS with respect to Wasserstein distance.
Efficient classifier with uncertainty bounds for safety-critical applications.
problem Lack of uncertainty bounds in high-accuracy classifiers for safety-critical tasks.
method Nadaraya-Watson estimator with frequentist bounds.
result Competitive accuracy and uncertainty bounds at reduced computational cost.
TAP transfers knowledge from unlabeled data to improve cross-modal learning.
problem Improving supervised learning performance using unlabeled data from a different modality.
method Probabilistic approach for missing information estimation, kernel regression, cross-attention module, TAP neural network.
result TAP significantly improves generalization across different domains and neural network architectures.
Generative models use kernel smoothing for conditioning on small example sets.
problem Improving generative models' performance with limited conditioning examples.
method Showed that cross-attention conditioning is equivalent to kernel smoothing, specifically a Nadaraya--Watson kernel smoother.
result The approach predicts and confirms three failure regimes for kernel-based conditioning.
New theory shows how multi-head attention reduces variance and decorrelates outputs.
problem Understanding and optimizing multi-head attention in neural networks.
method Developed a statistical theory linking multi-head attention to ensemble Nadaraya-Watson estimators.
result MHA variance reduction depends on head decorrelation, not just head count.
Paper estimates FPR of Bayes classifier using soft labels.
problem Determining optimal classifier performance.
method Uses soft labels and denoising technique.
result Consistent and unbiased FPR estimator developed.
Paper develops NW kernel estimator for LSPs with Wasserstein bounds.
problem Capturing nuanced dynamics in time series data with evolving statistical characteristics.
method Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing for conditional probability estimation, using Wasserstein and sliced Wasserstein distances.
result Established convergence rates and bounds for NW-based conditional probability estimator in LSPs.
Transformers can approximate Kalman Filtering in linear systems with small error.
problem Approximating Kalman Filtering using Transformers for linear dynamical systems.
method Two-step reduction: 1) Softmax self-attention block approximates Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing, 2) This estimator approximates Kalman Filter.
result Constructs a Transformer that implements the Kalman Filter with small additive error, uniformly bounded in time.
Enhances supervised learning speed with KT algorithm.
problem Speed up supervised learning tasks with minimal loss.
method Generalizes kernel thinning to supervised learning, combining NW and KRR with KT.
result KT-based estimators offer superior computational and statistical efficiency.
Study the averaging estimator on graphs with labeled nodes.
problem Understanding the quality of averaging estimators on graph data.
method Rigorously study concentration properties, variance bounds, and risk bounds.
result Contributes to theoretical understanding of graph learning.
The paper analyzes covariate shift in nonparametric regression with Markovian data.
problem Covariate shift in regression problems with Markovian data.
method Extension of nonparametric convergence rates to Markovian dependence structures, using Hölder smoothness assumptions and similarity measures.
result Precise convergence rates for Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimators under specific Markovian conditions.
ABIForest improves anomaly detection using attention weights.
problem Anomaly detection in datasets.
method Attention mechanism integrated into Isolation Forest.
result ABIForest outperforms standard Isolation Forest on synthetic and real datasets.
The most direct way to express arbitrary dependencies in datasets is to estimate the joint distribution and to apply afterwards the argmax-function to obtain the mode of the corresponding conditional distribution. This method is in practice difficult, because it requires a global optimization of a complicated function,…
We analyze the empirical performance of several non-parametric estimators of the pricing functional for European options, using historical put and call prices on the S&P500 during the year 2012. Two main families of estimators are considered, obtained by estimating the pricing functional directly, and by estimating the…
Active local learning uses fewer labels to predict near-optimal functions.
problem Efficiently predicting near-optimal functions with fewer labels.
method Active local learning algorithm for estimating functions with fewer labels.
result Algorithm makes significantly fewer label queries than traditional methods.
Novel method for time-series prediction with tighter confidence intervals.
problem Improving prediction intervals for time-series data.
method Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI) using adaptive weights.
result KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals with guaranteed coverage.
A debiasing method improves nonparametric regression's statistical properties.
problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for modern nonparametric regression methods.
method Model-free debiasing method incorporating a correction term.
result Debiased estimator satisfies pointwise and uniform risk convergence, asymptotic normality.
Estimates path-valued data using signature metrics and local kernels.
problem Nonparametric regression and classification for path-valued data.
method Combines signature transform and local kernel regression.
result Establishes convergence bounds and demonstrates competitive accuracy.
BENK estimates treatment effects with neural kernels for censored data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with censored time-to-event data.
method Proposes a method using the Beran estimator with neural kernels for survival functions.
result Shows improved accuracy compared to existing methods in various scenarios.
Improved nonparametric regression with debiasing for root-n consistency.
problem Challenges in achieving root-n consistency and normal distribution for nonparametric estimators.
method Debiasing technique by adding a correction term to nonparametric estimators.
result Achieves root-n consistency and asymptotic normality.
Quantum Graphical Models (QGMs) generalize classical graphical models by adopting the formalism for reasoning about uncertainty from quantum mechanics. Unlike classical graphical models, QGMs represent uncertainty with density matrices in complex Hilbert spaces. Hilbert space embeddings (HSEs) also generalize Bayesian …
Paper introduces novel survival models for handling censored data.
problem Complex data structures and heavy censoring in survival analysis.
method Combines imprecise probability theory with attention mechanisms.
result Proposed models, especially iSurvJ, outperform traditional methods.
New method generates synthetic time series paths with more flexibility.
problem Restrictions in generating synthetic paths using Brownian reference.
method Introduces Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges (TR-SBTS) for time series generation.
result Generates synthetic paths with more flexibility in stochastic volatility and correlated noise.
ABRF uses attention weights to improve RF performance.
problem Improving the performance of random forest models.
method Attention mechanism applied to random forest with optimization and gradient-based methods.
result The proposed ABRF models outperform standard RF models on various datasets.
The paper develops predictors for functional data on manifolds.
problem Functional data prediction on time-varying manifolds.
method Least-squares local linear Fréchet curve predictor and weighted Fréchet mean approach.
result Asymptotical optimality of the proposed predictors.
The purpose of this paper is to provide a sharp analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the Durbin-Watson statistic. We focus our attention on the first-order autoregressive process where the driven noise is also given by a first-order autoregressive process. We establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic n…
Random forests with attention and self-attention improve regression performance.
problem Improving regression model performance on various datasets.
method Proposes new models using attention and self-attention mechanisms to solve regression problems.
result The models improve model performance on many datasets.
We address the problem of prescribing an optimal decision in a framework where the cost function depends on uncertain problem parameters that need to be learned from data. Earlier work proposed prescriptive formulations based on supervised machine learning methods. These prescriptive methods can factor in contextual in…
Authors derive the first two terms of the Hartman-Watson distribution's expansion for small t.
problem The Hartman-Watson distribution's integral density is difficult to evaluate numerically for small t.
method Saddle point methods and numerical estimates of the integrand.
result Obtained the first two terms of the to0 expansion of the Hartman-Watson distribution. This note provides an error bound for the Hartman-Watson integral's leading term.
problem Bounding the error of the leading term of the Hartman-Watson integral.
method Asymptotic expansion analysis focusing on the regime rt=ρ constant. result The error term is bounded uniformly as ∣ϑ(t,ρ)∣≤701t. We treat the problem of estimation of orientation parameters whose values are invariant to transformations from a spherical symmetry group. Previous work has shown that any such group-invariant distribution must satisfy a restricted finite mixture representation, which allows the orientation parameter to be estimated u…
This paper models stock prices using a Janardan Galton Watson process.
problem Modeling stock price fluctuations and predicting market trends.
method Extends Janardan Galton Watson process to model stock prices, considering initial close price and number of offspring.
result The model predicts return values and probability of market extinction.
Barrieu, Rouault, and Yor [J. Appl. Probab. 41 (2004)] determined asymptotics for the logarithm of the distribution function of the Hartman-Watson distribution. We determine the asymptotics of the density. This refinement can be applied to the pricing of Asian options in the Black-Scholes model.
We show that any exceptional non-trivial Dehn surgery on a twist knot, except the trefoil, yields a 3-manifold whose fundamental group is left-orderable. This is a generalization of a result of Clay, Lidman and Watson, and also gives a new supporting evidence for a conjecture of Boyer, Gordon and Watson.
We study the secondary structure of RNA determined by Watson-Crick pairing without pseudo-knots using Milnor invariants of links. We focus on the first non-trivial invariant, which we call the Heisenberg invariant. The Heisenberg invariant, which is an integer, can be interpreted in terms of the Heisenberg group as wel…
We prove that the link of a complex normal surface singularity is an L--space if and only if the singularity is rational. This via a recent result of Hanselman, J. Rasmussen, S. D. Rasmussen and Watson (proving the conjecture of Boyer, Gordon and Watson), shows that a singularity link is not rational if and only if its…
Boyer, Gordon, and Watson have conjectured that an irreducible rational homology 3-sphere is an L-space if and only if its fundamental group is not left-orderable. Since large classes of L-spaces can be produced from Dehn surgery on knots in the 3-sphere, it is natural to ask what conditions on the knot group are suffi…
A new loss function for VAEs improves image quality and efficiency.
problem Training VAEs to generate realistic images requires a loss function that reflects human perception.
method Based on Watson's perceptual model, the loss function computes a weighted distance in frequency space, accounts for luminance and contrast masking, and is extended to color images.
result VAEs trained with the new loss function generated high-quality, less blurry images with fewer artifacts and less computational resources.
It has been recently conjectured by Boyer-Gordon-Watson that a closed, orientable, irreducible 3-manifold M is a Heegaard Floer L-space if and only if π1(M) is not left-orderable. In this article, we study this conjecture from the point of view of lattice cohomology, an invariant introduced by Némethi which is…
Using an invariant defined by Rasmussen, we extend an argument given by Hedden and Watson which further restricts which Alexander polynomials can be realized by L-space knots.