arXiv research

Proposes and evaluates three diagnostic graphics for probabilistic classifiers.

Motivated by the Basel 3 regulations, recent studies have considered joint forecasts of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little intuitive or empirical guidance is currently available, which renders the choice…

EBM improves car insurance claim severity and frequency prediction while maintaining interpretability.

A framework for sensitivity measures using scoring functions.

We use a skein-theoretic version of the Hecke algebras of type A to present three-dimensional diagrammatic views of Gyoja's idempotent elements, based closely on the corresponding Young diagram. In this context we give straightforward calculations for the eigenvalues of two natural central elements in the Hecke algebra…

The Murphy operators in the Hecke algebra H_n of type A are explicit commuting elements whose sum generates the centre. They can be represented by simple tangles in the Homfly skein theory version of H_n. In this paper I present a single tangle which represents their sum, and which is obviously central. As a consequenc…

HZ transform applied to knot polynomials reveals hyperbolic knot structures.

The Murphy operators in the Hecke algebra H_n of type A are explicit commuting elements, whose symmetric functions are central in H_n. In [Skein theory and the Murphy operators, J. Knot Theory Ramif. 11 (2002), 475-492] I defined geometrically a homomorphism from the Homfly skein C of the annulus to the centre of each …

The paper analyzes elicitability of return risk measures and their scoring functions.

Paper proves h-principles for symplectic structures and foliations.

Proves h-principle for loose Legendrian embeddings in contact topology.

Just as the Temperley-Lieb algebra is a good place to compute the Jones polynomial, the Kauffman bracket skein algebra of a disk with $2k$ colored points on the boundary, each with color $n$, is a good place to compute the $n^{th}$ colored Jones polynomial. Here, this colored skein algebra is shown to be a cellular alg…

We prove universality theorems ("Murphy's Laws") for representation schemes of fundamental groups of closed 3-dimensional manifolds. We show that germs of SL(2,C)-representation schemes of such groups are essentially the same as germs of schemes of over rational numbers.

Learning the minimum/maximum mean among a finite set of distributions is a fundamental sub-task in planning, game tree search and reinforcement learning. We formalize this learning task as the problem of sequentially testing how the minimum mean among a finite set of distributions compares to a given threshold. We deve…

In the practice of point prediction, it is desirable that forecasters receive a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. When evaluating and comparing competing forecasts, it is then critical that the scoring function used for these purposes be co…

This research improves forecasting and testing of risk contributions using Expected Shortfall.

The debate of what quantitative risk measure to choose in practice has mainly focused on the dichotomy between Value at Risk (VaR) -- a quantile -- and Expected Shortfall (ES) -- a tail expectation. Range Value at Risk (RVaR) is a natural interpolation between these two prominent risk measures, which constitutes a trad…

New dg-algebras link graph colorings to sheaves.

For bicovariant differential calculi on quantum matrix groups a generalisation of classical notions such as metric tensor, Hodge operator, codifferential and Laplace-Beltrami operator for arbitrary k-forms is given. Under some technical assumptions it is proved that Woronowicz' external algebra of left-invariant differ…

We construct open book structures on all moment-angle manifolds and describe the topology of their leaves and bindings under certain restrictions. II. We also show, using a recent deep result about contact forms due to Borman, Eliashberg and Murphy [6], that every odd-dimensional moment-angle manifold admits a contact …

We develop an inductive approach to the representation theory of the Yokonuma-Hecke algebra ${\rm Y}_{d,n}(q)$, based on the study of the spectrum of its Jucys-Murphy elements which are defined here. We give explicit formulas for the irreducible representations of ${\rm Y}_{d,n}(q)$ in terms of standard $d$-tableaux; w…

Study shows how to section map between holonomic and formal solutions.

To a braid $β\in Br_n$ we associate a complex of sheaves $S_β$ on $Hilb_n(C^2)$ such that the previously defined triply graded link homology of the closure $L(β)$ is isomorphic to the homology of $S_β$. The construction of $S_β$ relies on the Chern functor $CH: MF_n^{st}\to D^{per}_{C^*\times C^*}(Hilb_n(C^2))$ defined…

Develops quantum circuits for faster learning with symmetry considerations.

New approach treats coordination as an architectural layer to improve LLM-based multi-agent systems.

Foresight Arena benchmarks AI forecasting on real-world markets, isolating predictive edge.

Refines Hurwitz numbers with a two-parameter theory.

The paper refines transformations of lattice diagrams and introduces dotted diagrams.

This note explains how to transform Heegaard diagrams into framed link diagrams.

Study stability of non-Kähler Calabi-Yau metrics using critical points of generalized Einstein Hilbert action.

New minimal link diagrams found, including torus links and homogeneous ones.

Random 3-manifolds have no totally geodesic submanifolds.

Algorithm converts Kirby diagrams to trisection diagrams for 4-manifolds.

Kernelized Taylor diagram visualizes data populations with fewer assumptions.

A virtual link diagram is called normal if the associated abstract link diagram is checkerboard colorable, and a virtual link is normal if it has a normal diagram as a representative.In this paper, we introduce a method of converting a virtual link diagram to a normal virtual link diagram by use of the double covering …

Study categorizes knots and links as rigid or shaky based on Reidemeister moves.

Twisted graph diagrams are virtual graph diagrams with bars on edges. A bijection between abstract graph diagrams and twisted graph diagrams is constructed. Then a polynomial invariant of Yamada-type is developed which provides a lower bound for the virtual crossing number of virtual graph diagrams.

A virtual link diagram is called normal if the associated abstract link diagram is checkerboard colorable, and a virtual link is normal if it has a normal diagram as a representative. Normal virtual links have some properties similar to classical links.In this paper, we introduce a method of converting a virtual link d…

Persistence diagrams are important descriptors in Topological Data Analysis. Due to the nonlinearity of the space of persistence diagrams equipped with their {\em diagram distances}, most of the recent attempts at using persistence diagrams in machine learning have been done through kernel methods, i.e., embeddings of …

Problems on region choices for knot and link diagrams solved using Alexander numbering.

Table of symmetric diagrams for knots up to 10 crossings.

The presence of slipknots in configurations of proteins and DNA has been shown to affect their functionality, or alter it entirely. Historically, polymers are modeled as polygonal chains in space. As an alternative to space curves, we provide a framework for working with subknots inside of knot diagrams via knotoid dia…

Proves minimal crossing diagrams for specific spatial graphs.

Rectangular diagrams help analyze foliations in 3-sphere.

Bankwitz characterized an alternating diagram representing the trivial knot. A non-alternating diagram is called almost alternating if one crossing change makes the diagram alternating. We characterize an almost alternaing diagram representing the trivial knot. As a corollary we determine an unknotting number one alter…

The paper explores when specific knot operations simplify diagrams.

Gauss diagrams' properties can change with Hamiltonian cycle choice.

New estimate of semimeander complexity for knots with more than 10 crossings.