Method constructs prediction intervals for time-varying individual treatment effects.
problem Accurately quantify uncertainty of individual treatment effects across multiple decision points.
method Conformal inference techniques for time-varying ITEs with weaker assumptions.
result Guaranteed lower bound for coverage dependent on data non-exchangeability.
While Multiple Instance (MI) data are point patterns -- sets or multi-sets of unordered points -- appropriate statistical point pattern models have not been used in MI learning. This article proposes a framework for model-based MI learning using point process theory. Likelihood functions for point pattern data derived …
This paper tackles noisy multi-objective optimization with adaptive resampling using bootstrapping.
problem Challenges in optimizing noisy multi-objective problems, especially trade-offs between exploration and exploitation.
method Adaptive resampling with bootstrapping to estimate probability of dominance and improve precision.
result Demonstrates the efficiency of the resampling approach in NSGA-II algorithm under multiple noise variations.
This paper describes experiments, on two domains, to investigate the effect of averaging over predictions of multiple decision trees, instead of using a single tree. Other authors have pointed out theoretical and commonsense reasons for preferring the multiple tree approach. Ideally, we would like to consider predictio…
Method predicts NBA players' multi-modal movement trajectories.
problem Understanding NBA players' decision-making during games.
method LSTM-based architecture with multi-modal loss function.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art in predicting realistic trajectories.
The paper tackles robust policy learning in MDPs using statistical methods.
problem Offline data-driven sequential decision making in MDPs.
method Evaluates policies using average rewards centered at policy-induced stationary distributions. Developed a statistically efficient method for estimating robust optimal policies.
result Established a rate-optimal regret bound up to a logarithmic factor.
Training deep neural networks often requires careful hyper-parameter tuning and significant computational resources. In this paper, we propose ConvTimeNet (CTN): an off-the-shelf deep convolutional neural network (CNN) trained on diverse univariate time series classification (TSC) source tasks. Once trained, CTN can be…
The paper introduces new measures to quantify variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
problem The variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
method Introduces leaf regret and structural regret to decompose observational multiplicity.
result Structural regret is the primary driver of observational multiplicity, accounting for over 15 times the variability of leaf regret in some datasets.
Unified method for learning from selectively labeled data.
problem Classification with selectively labeled data from multiple decision-makers.
method Unified cost-sensitive learning (UCL) approach.
result Unified method for robust classification in selective labeling.
New method combines multiple data sources for optimal decision-making with limited outcomes.
problem Optimal decision-making with limited outcome data from multiple heterogeneous sources.
method Calibrated optimal decision-making method leveraging common intermediate outcomes.
result Proposed estimator of conditional mean outcome is asymptotically normal and more efficient.
Develops a framework to quantify uncertainties in multiple ML models.
problem Uncertainty in ML model predictions and model inputs.
method Develops a theoretical framework to decouple and transform uncertainties.
result Generates joint distribution of ML predictions considering uncertainties.
A new method for generating counterfactual explanations in high-dimensional datasets.
problem Creating realistic counterfactual explanations in complex, high-dimensional data.
method A discretized approach using binary search and boundary approximation.
result Our method reduces the distance between counterfactuals by 5% to 50% in terms of the L2 norm.
A method for multidimensional probabilistic electricity market forecasting is proposed.
problem Uncertainty in simultaneous multivariate predictions of electricity markets.
method Repeated resampling to estimate uncertainty of simultaneous multivariate predictions.
result The method provides highly accurate predictions and gains are largest when considering functions of variables.
Paper identifies a shared toolkit of strategies for risk management across fields.
problem Uncertainty and risk management in various fields.
method Systematic identification and categorization of 110 strategies.
result RDOT: Risk-reducing Design and Operations Toolkit provides versatile responses to uncertainty.
We introduce canonical correlation forests (CCFs), a new decision tree ensemble method for classification and regression. Individual canonical correlation trees are binary decision trees with hyperplane splits based on local canonical correlation coefficients calculated during training. Unlike axis-aligned alternatives…
The paper develops deep learning models for personalized treatment rules in survival analysis.
problem Deriving optimal treatment rules for bivariate survival outcomes in randomized trials.
method Adaptive prediction-powered learning using deep neural networks and stochastic policies.
result Maximizes joint survival probability beyond fixed time points (t1,t2). This paper studies uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting models.
method Analysis of UQ methods from Bayesian and frequentist perspectives, including statistical decision theory.
result Different UQ methods have different strengths and weaknesses, with Bayesian methods being more robust in mean prediction and frequentist methods providing more extensive coverage.
Study on multi-agent decision making complexity, showing sample efficiency gaps.
problem Understanding sample efficiency in multi-agent decision making.
method General framework for interactive decision making, focusing on equilibrium computation.
result No 'reasonable' complexity measure can close gaps between single and multiple agents.
Efficiently optimize GPs by reusing candidate solutions multiple times.
problem High computational cost of Gaussian process optimization due to unique historical points.
method Sticking to a candidate solution for multiple evaluation steps and limiting switches.
result Improved efficiency and practicality of Gaussian process optimization algorithms.
A critical decision point when training predictors using multiple studies is whether studies should be combined or treated separately. We compare two multi-study prediction approaches in the presence of potential heterogeneity in predictor-outcome relationships across datasets: 1) merging all of the datasets and traini…
Inverse design is an outstanding challenge in disordered systems with multiple length scales such as polymers, particularly when designing polymers with desired phase behavior. We demonstrate high-accuracy tuning of poly(2-oxazoline) cloud point via machine learning. With a design space of four repeating units and a ra…
A new method solves bilevel optimization problems in competitive Markov games.
problem Capturing competitive structures in RL with multiple interacting policies.
method Penalty-augmented Nikaido-Isoda descent-ascent (PANDA) method.
result PANDA converges to stationary points without convexity assumptions.
Boosting meta-trees improve decision tree performance.
problem Overfitting in decision trees.
method Boosting approach to construct multiple meta-trees.
result Ensembles of meta-trees prevent overfitting.
The paper corrects bias in fluid approximation for better decision-making in stochastic optimization.
problem Bias introduced by using mean values in fluid approximation leads to suboptimal decisions.
method Identifying a decision-corrected point estimate that yields optimal decisions.
result A corrected point estimate exists under certain conditions and can be computed algorithmically.
End-to-end pipeline for data-driven decision making in mixed-integer optimization.
problem Data-driven decision making in mixed-integer optimization with uncertainty.
method Exploiting mixed-integer optimization-representability of machine learning methods, characterizing decision trust regions, and ensembling multiple models.
result Framework generates high-quality prescriptions and controls model robustness.
GAIF enhances online multiple testing with feedback, improving statistical power.
problem Sequential online multiple testing with delayed feedback.
method GAIF framework using dynamic threshold adjustment and feedback-driven model selection.
result Improves statistical power through feedback-driven model selection.
We present an alternative layer to convolution layers in convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Our approach reduces the complexity of convolutions by replacing it with binary decisions. Those binary decisions are used as indexes to conditional distributions where each weight represents a leaf in a decision tree. This m…
Given a set of human's decisions that are observed, inverse optimization has been developed and utilized to infer the underlying decision making problem. The majority of existing studies assumes that the decision making problem is with a single objective function, and attributes data divergence to noises, errors or bou…
A new model predicts spatio-temporal data using adaptive decision trees and point processes.
problem Predicting spatio-temporal data with real-life applications.
method Hawkes process, adaptive decision tree, joint optimization algorithm.
result Significant improvement in predictions compared to standard methods.
The study examines how hyperparameters affect prediction discrepancies in machine learning models.
problem Prediction inconsistencies across different machine learning models trained on the same dataset.
method Investigation of six models (Elastic Net, Decision Tree, k-NN, SVM, RF, XGBoost) on 21 benchmark datasets, focusing on key hyperparameters.
result Hyperparameter tuning improves model performance but increases prediction discrepancies, especially in Extreme Gradient Boosting.
Develops scenario theory for multi-criteria decision making.
problem Need for robustness assessment with multiple criteria and datasets.
method Collectively treats risks associated with individual criteria for multi-criteria decision problems.
result More accurate robustness certificates and sharper quantification of simultaneous criterion satisfaction.
Introduces Rashomon Capacity to measure predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classifiers.
problem Predictive multiplicity in classification models leading to unjustified decisions.
method Introduces Rashomon Capacity, a metric for probabilistic classifiers, and provides a rigorous derivation.
result Rashomon Capacity captures nuanced score variations and provides strategies for disclosing conflicting models.
Large uncertainties in many phenomena have challenged decision making. Collecting additional information to better characterize reducible uncertainties is among decision alternatives. Value of information (VoI) analysis is a mathematical decision framework that quantifies expected potential benefits of new data and ass…
Deep learning models have been the subject of study from various perspectives, for example, their training process, interpretation, generalization error, robustness to adversarial attacks, etc. A trained model is defined by its decision boundaries, and therefore, many of the studies about deep learning models speculate…
Optimizes mobile notifications for multiple objectives using reinforcement learning.
problem Optimizing mobile notification systems for multiple objectives.
method End-to-end offline reinforcement learning with Double Deep Q-network and Conservative Q-learning.
result Demonstrates improved performance and benefits of the proposed approach.
This paper synthesizes and analyzes some important current and recent contributions to the theory of the firm under uncertainty. In so doing, it examines the production and hedging decisions of the competitive firm under a single source and multiple sources of uncertainty.
Paper tackles risk-sensitive decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Risk-sensitive decision-making problem under uncertainty.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, delineated necessary optimality conditions.
result Illustrative examples from optimal betting and inventory management support the theory.
The Chain-of-Decision approach improves forecasting of financial professionals' trading decisions.
problem Challenges in forecasting professionals' behaviors, especially in trading decisions.
method Integrates an opinion-generator-in-the-loop to provide subjective analysis based on news items.
result Promising improvements in the proposed tasks' performance.
Specialized hierarchies improve decision-making by partitioning tasks.
problem Division of labor and specialization in hierarchical systems.
method Information-theoretic on-line learning rule for partitioning tasks.
result Enforces specialization and optimal combination of experts.
StylEx trains a GAN to explain classifier decisions in StyleSpace.
problem Creating meaningful image-specific explanations for classifier decisions.
method Training a StyleGAN to learn a classifier-specific StyleSpace, incorporating the classifier model.
result StylEx finds attributes that align with semantic ones and generates human-interpretable explanations.
Paper tackles robust decision-making from multiple sites with shared structure.
problem Learning robust sequential decisions from heterogeneous multi-site datasets.
method Group-Robust MDPs with d-rectangular uncertainty sets, feature-wise worst-case aggregation, and cluster-level pooling.
result Proves suboptimality bound for robust planning policy under robust partial coverage assumption.
Improved reasoning model by sampling from power distribution without additional training.
problem Efficiently sampling from a sharpened distribution to improve reasoning models.
method Entropy-Cut Metropolis-Hastings algorithm that identifies key decision points for resampling.
result The method consistently improves reasoning models across various datasets.
Linear algebra algorithms are used widely in a variety of domains, e.g machine learning, numerical physics and video games graphics. For all these applications, loop-level parallelism is required to achieve high performance. However, finding the optimal way to schedule the workload between threads is a non-trivial prob…
The paper tackles robust policy learning from multiple data sources.
problem Learning a policy that generalizes across diverse settings from multiple heterogeneous data sources.
method Proposes a minimax regret optimization objective and a policy learning algorithm combining doubly robust offline policy evaluation and no-regret learning.
result Achieves minimal worst-case mixture regret up to a moderated vanishing rate of the total data across all sources.
A framework identifies worst-case decision points in safety-critical scenarios, improving risk assessment by 10 hours.
problem Identifying worst-case outcomes in safety-critical decision-making under uncertainty.
method Explicitly estimating distributions of expected return to identify dead-ends, tuning based on risk tolerance.
result Significantly improves risk assessment, providing indications 10 hours earlier and increasing detection by 20%.
Capacity control, the bias/variance dilemma, and learning unknown functions from data, are all concerned with identifying effective and consistent fits of unknown geometric loci to random data points. A geometric locus is a curve or surface formed by points, all of which possess some uniform property. A geometric locus…
We introduce the notion of a conjugation-free geometric presentation for a fundamental group of a line arrangement's complement, and we show that the fundamental groups of the following family of arrangements have a conjugation-free geometric presentation: A real arrangement L, whose graph of multiple points is a union…
AM-PPI uses multiple predictors to reduce label cost in healthcare AI.
problem Reduces label cost in post-deployment monitoring of healthcare AI.
method Combines model predictions with a small labeled sample, routing each instance to a cost-appropriate subset of predictors.
result Produces narrower confidence intervals than single-predictor methods.