We study the multi-level order-flow imbalance (MLOFI), which is a vector quantity that measures the net flow of buy and sell orders at different price levels in a limit order book (LOB). Using a recent, high-quality data set for 6 liquid stocks on Nasdaq, we fit a simple, linear relationship between MLOFI and the conte…
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48 results for “Multi-Level Order Flow Imbalance”
This paper improves robot traders' market impact sensitivity.
problem Market impact in automated trading systems.
method Critiqued existing methods, introduced MLOFI, and demonstrated new algorithms.
result New imbalance-sensitive trader-agents exhibit market impact effects.
Improved stock price prediction model using generalized order flow imbalance.
problem Improving stock price prediction models using new order flow imbalance indicators.
method Proposed a generalized order flow imbalance construction method and applied it to CSI 500 stocks.
result Generalized Stationarized Order Flow Imbalance (log-GOFI) shows significant improvement in explaining stock price changes.
Stochastic Price Dynamics in Response to Order Flow Imbalance: Evidence from CSI 300 Index Futuresq-fin.MF
Modeling price dynamics in response to order flow imbalance in Chinese futures markets.
problem Understanding price dynamics in markets with order flow imbalance.
method Modeling order flow imbalance as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with memory and mean-reverting characteristics.
result Horizon-dependent heterogeneity in conventional metrics' interaction with order flow imbalance.
We investigate the probability distribution of order imbalance calculated from the order flow data of 43 Chinese stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Two definitions of order imbalance are considered based on the order number and the order size. We find that the order imbalance distributions of individual stoc…
We study the price impact of order book events - limit orders, market orders and cancelations - using the NYSE TAQ data for 50 U.S. stocks. We show that, over short time intervals, price changes are mainly driven by the order flow imbalance, defined as the imbalance between supply and demand at the best bid and ask pri…
Study shows how macroeconomic news affects intraday price and order flow dynamics.
problem Understanding how macroeconomic news impacts intraday price and order flow dynamics.
method Structural VAR model identified through heteroskedasticity, estimated at one-second frequency for each 15-minute interval.
result Macroeconomic news announcements reshape price-flow dynamics, with significant impacts on price and flow impacts at the one-second horizon.
This paper uses Hawkes processes to forecast high-frequency order flow imbalance.
problem Forecasting the asymmetry in high-frequency order flow events.
method Hawkes processes accounting for lagged dependence between bid and offer events.
result Hawkes process with a Sum of Exponential's kernel gives the best forecast of order flow imbalance.
We examine optimal execution models that take into account both market microstructure impact and informational costs. Informational footprint is related to order flow and is represented by the trader's influence on the flow imbalance process, while microstructure influence is captured by instantaneous price impact. We …
Study shows price impact increases with order-flow imbalance, using machine learning.
problem Understanding price impact in financial markets.
method Empirical investigation using Kyle's model and machine learning.
result Machine learning models can predict market impact more accurately than traditional methods.
We investigate the behavior of limit order books on the meso-scale motivated by order execution scheduling algorithms. To do so we carry out empirical analysis of the order flows from market and limit order submissions, aggregated from tick-by-tick data via volume-based bucketing, as well as various LOB depth and shape…
Trade Co-occurrence, Trade Flow Decomposition, and Conditional Order Imbalance in Equity Marketsq-fin.TR
The paper classifies trades into types based on proximity and measures their impact on stock prices.
problem Understanding the impact of high-frequency trades on stock prices and their predictability.
method Classifies trades into five types based on proximity, measures conditional order imbalance (COI), and develops trading strategies.
result Strong positive correlations between contemporaneous returns and COIs, and positive associations with future returns for isolated trades.
Study shows integrating OFI from multiple levels improves price impact explanation but not forecasting.
problem Explaining and forecasting price movements in equity markets using OFI.
method Systematic approach to combine OFIs from multiple levels into an integrated variable, testing multi-asset models with and without cross-impact terms.
result Lagged cross-asset OFIs improve future return forecasting but not contemporaneous price impact.
ClusterLOB clusters market events to identify different trading behaviors.
problem Understanding market microstructure and participant behavior in financial markets.
method ClusterLOB uses K-means++ algorithm to cluster market events based on six time-dependent features.
result ClusterLOB identifies three distinct trading behaviors: directional, opportunistic, and market-making participants.
The Subtle Interplay between Square-root Impact, Order Imbalance & Volatility: A Unifying Frameworkq-fin.TR
New framework explains market volatility and metaorder impact.
problem Reconciling contradictory observations in market microstructure.
method Introducing a new theoretical framework to describe metaorders with different signs, sizes, and durations.
result Price diffusion is ensured by long memory of cross-correlations between metaorders.
Hybrid model combines VAR and neural network for OFI prediction.
problem Accurate prediction of Order Flow Imbalance (OFI) in high frequency trading.
method Combines Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and a simple feedforward neural network (FNN).
result Hybrid model achieves superior predictive accuracy compared to standalone models.
DIGRAC clusters directed graphs using flow imbalance, outperforming existing methods.
problem Clustering directed networks without label supervision.
method DIGRAC uses a graph neural network with a novel imbalance loss for directed flow imbalance.
result DIGRAC outperforms 10 state-of-the-art methods on directed graph clustering.
In this paper, we assume that the permanent market impact of metaorders is linear and that the price is a martingale. Those two hypotheses enable us to derive the evolution of the price from the dynamics of the flow of market orders. For example, if the market order flow is assumed to follow a nearly unstable Hawkes pr…
Combines deep learning and reinforcement learning for profitable trading.
problem Analytical methods fail to fully capture market dynamics.
method Deep learning on order books combined with reinforcement learning.
result Successful trading models for multiple financial instruments.
The study examines when large trades are considered news or liquidity shocks in a market model.
problem Understanding when large trades are news or liquidity shocks in a market model.
method A sequential competitive limit order book model with asymmetric information and Student-t tails for liquidity demand.
result Heavy-tailed liquidity demand flattens and concavifies price impact, delaying price discovery.
A Hawkes process with state-dependent factor models order flows in limit order books.
problem Modeling order flows in limit order books for better market prediction.
method A Hawkes process with a state-dependent factor for conditional intensity estimation.
result State-dependent formulations improve the fit of LOB models to financial data.
Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, o…
Filters on order flow improve short-term market directionality.
problem Improving directional signals from order flow in financial markets.
method Structural filters on order lifetime, modification count, and timing applied to BankNifty index futures.
result Filters on parent orders of executed trades show stronger directional association with returns.
Stochastic Multi-level Composition Optimization Algorithms with Level-Independent Convergence Ratesmath.OC
New algorithms solve complex multi-level optimization problems with improved efficiency.
problem Smooth stochastic multi-level composition optimization problems.
method Two algorithms using moving-average and linearized stochastic estimates.
result Achieved sample complexities of O(1/ε^4) and O(1/ε^6).
This paper is split in three parts: first we use labelled trade data to exhibit how market participants accept or not transactions via limit orders as a function of liquidity imbalance; then we develop a theoretical stochastic control framework to provide details on how one can exploit his knowledge on liquidity imbala…
New algorithm solves complex optimization problems without needing projections.
problem Optimizing nested functions under convex constraints with noisy evaluations.
method Projection-free conditional gradient-type algorithm for smooth stochastic multi-level composition optimization.
result The algorithm achieves -stationary solutions with complexity bounds independent of and .
We propose an analytically tractable class of models for the dynamics of a limit order book, described through a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with multiplicative noise for the order book centered at the mid-price, along with stochastic dynamics for the mid-price which is consistent with the order flo…
The study confirms that market volatility can be explained by correlated metaorders impacting prices in a square-root fashion.
problem Explaining market volatility using metaorders and their impact.
method Generated synthetic market data and analyzed the correlation between order flow and returns.
result The square-root law of market impact is confirmed and can be measured from anonymized trade data.
Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: Is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?physics.soc-ph
In this comment we discuss the problem of reconciling the linear efficiency of price returns with the long-memory of supply and demand. We present new evidence that shows that efficiency is maintained by a liquidity imbalance that co-moves with the imbalance of buyer vs. seller initiated transactions. For example, duri…
Model predicts trading strategies based on latent demand and price impact.
problem Predicting strategic trading behavior of investors with private targets.
method Equilibrium model of dynamic trading, learning, and pricing by strategic investors.
result Trading strategies are a combination of target following, liquidity provision, and front-running based on latent demand and price pressure.
We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The excitation kernel of the counting process depends on the state process that, reciprocally…
Many real-world classification problems are significantly class-imbalanced to detriment of the class of interest. The standard set of proper evaluation metrics is well-known but the usual assumption is that the test dataset imbalance equals the real-world imbalance. In practice, this assumption is often broken for vari…
Study develops advanced models to forecast complex LOB data.
problem Forecasting high-frequency data in a limit order book (LOB).
method Advanced multidimensional sequence-to-sequence models with compound multivariate embedding.
result Method outperforms other multivariate forecasting methods, achieving lowest forecasting error.
JIMA uses multi-level preference data to recommend composite items.
problem Recommending composite items efficiently with multi-level preference information.
method Joint Interaction Modeling (JIMA) approach that integrates multi-level preference data and interactions.
result JIMA outperforms advanced baselines in offline and online settings.
We propose a model for price formation in financial markets based on clearing of a standard call auction with random orders, and verify its validity for prediction of the daily closing price distribution statistically. The model considers random buy and sell orders, placed following demand- and supply-side valuation di…
In this article we propose a novel approach to reduce the computational complexity of various approximation methods for pricing discrete time American options. Given a sequence of continuation values estimates corresponding to different levels of spatial approximation and time discretization, we propose a multi-level l…
The paper introduces a new price model based on entropy that better fits high-frequency market data.
problem Understanding fair prices in high-frequency markets with bid-ask imbalance.
method A parametrized family of prices derived from the Maximum Entropy Principle, minimizing bias given volume imbalance.
result The model can generate higher kurtosis and heavy-tailed distributions compared to standard models.
How and why stock prices move is a centuries-old question still not answered conclusively. More recently, attention shifted to higher frequencies, where trades are processed piecewise across different timescales. Here we reveal that price impact has a universal non-linear shape for trades aggregated on any intra-day sc…
A new method for solving complex sequential decision-making problems by decomposing them into multiple levels.
problem Sequential decision-making with natural multi-level structure.
method Multi-level meta-reinforcement learning with skill-based curriculum.
result Efficiently reduces stochasticity and policy search space, leading to fewer iterations and computations.
Analyzes how class imbalance and heterogeneity affect diffusion model learning dynamics.
problem Understanding how class imbalance and heterogeneity impact the learning dynamics of diffusion models.
method Developed a high-dimensional analytical framework to study class-dependent learning in score-based diffusion models.
result Class variance is the primary determinant of learning order, favoring higher-variance classes; centroid geometry plays a secondary role.
We present an empirical analysis of the microstructure of financial markets and, in particular, of the static and dynamic properties of liquidity. We find that on relatively large time scales (15 minutes) large price fluctuations are connected to the failure of the subtle mechanism of compensation between the flows of …
3D object recognition accuracy can be improved by learning the multi-scale spatial features from 3D spatial geometric representations of objects such as point clouds, 3D models, surfaces, and RGB-D data. Current deep learning approaches learn such features either using structured data representations (voxel grids and o…
We study the dynamics of the limit order book of liquid stocks after experiencing large intra-day price changes. In the data we find large variations in several microscopical measures, e.g., the volatility the bid-ask spread, the bid-ask imbalance, the number of queuing limit orders, the activity (number and volume) of…
In this work we introduce two variants of multivariate Hawkes models with an explicit dependency on various queue sizes aimed at modeling the stochastic time evolution of a limit order book. The models we propose thus integrate the influence of both the current book state and the past order flow. The first variant cons…
We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market with trader identifiers at a tick transaction level. Jumps are frequent events and…
Study on heavy tails in closing auction returns, explaining imbalance through limit order submission.
problem Understanding heavy tails in closing auction return distributions.
method Used the stochastic call auction model of Derksen et al. (2020a) to derive and verify a relation between tail exponents.
result Large closing price fluctuations are not caused by large market orders, but by imbalance in limit orders.
Develops a method to ensure accurate quantile forecasts across multiple levels.
problem Ensuring accurate quantile forecasts at multiple levels, even under distribution shifts.
method Multi-level quantile tracker (MultiQT) wraps around any forecaster to produce calibrated forecasts.
result Guaranteed calibration of quantile forecasts at multiple levels, even against adversarial shifts.
Study uses agent-based simulation to analyze impact of OBI strategy on financial markets.
problem Improving execution in markets with supply-demand imbalance.
method Built an execution algorithm that accounts for OBI, tested it in artificial markets.
result OBI strategy can improve execution, especially in volatile markets.