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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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117234350467 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Movement Analysis

Taureau uses Twitter sentiment analysis to predict stock market movement.

problem Predicting stock market movement using public opinion on Twitter.
method Obtained historical tweets, filtered and labeled, generated word embeddings, assessed sentiment scores, correlated with stock price movement, designed and evaluated predictive model.
result Taureau can predict stock price movement from lagged sentiment scores.

Paper reduces movement primitive dimensionality in parameter space.

problem High dimensionality of movement primitives makes policy optimization expensive.
method Investigates dimensionality reduction in parameter space, identifying principal movements.
result Dimensionality reduction in parameter space is more effective than in configuration space.

Enhances LLMs for predicting stock movements by considering news dissemination and context.

problem Lack of consideration for news dissemination and insufficient contextual data in LLMs for stock price prediction.
method Clusters news for reach assessment, enriches prompts with specific data and instructions, fine-tunes an LLM using the dataset.
result Improves prediction accuracy by 8% compared to existing methods.

ChatGPT struggles in predicting stock movements, underperforming traditional methods.

problem Predicting stock market movements using ChatGPT.
method Zero-shot analysis of ChatGPT's multimodal stock prediction capabilities.
result ChatGPT underperforms traditional methods and state-of-the-art models in predicting stock movements.

Yarbus' claim to decode the observer's task from eye movements has received mixed reactions. In this paper, we have supported the hypothesis that it is possible to decode the task. We conducted an exploratory analysis on the dataset by projecting features and data points into a scatter plot to visualize the nuance prop…

2019-07-29abs ↗pdf ↗

MPANF improves naive forecast by incorporating directional information.

problem Challenging to surpass naive forecast in financial time series.
method Combines naive forecast with movement prediction and accuracy.
result MPANF generally outperforms common benchmarks.

We explore the effect of past market movements on the instantaneous correlations between assets within the futures market. Quantifying this effect is of interest to estimate and manage the risk associated to portfolios of futures in a non-stationary context. We apply and extend a previously reported method called the P…

2019-12-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Study predicts cryptocurrency price movements using Twitter sentiment analysis.

problem Predicting short-term price movements of cryptocurrencies.
method Conditional examination of return and excess return rates following tweet publication.
result Statistically significant increases in return rates within the first three minutes after tweet publication.

This study evaluates LLMs for sentiment analysis in stock price prediction.

problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy using LLMs for news sentiment analysis.
method Compared 3 LLMs (DeBERTa, RoBERTa, FinBERT) for sentiment-driven stock prediction.
result DeBERTa outperforms other models with 75% accuracy, and ensemble model increases accuracy to 80%.

Study improves stock movement prediction using multimodal data.

problem Inaccurate stock movement prediction due to incomplete multimodal data integration.
method Introduces MSGCA framework for robust multimodal fusion.
result MSGCA framework outperforms existing methods by 21.7% on multimodal datasets.

Enhances stock movement prediction using Higher Order Transformers for multimodal time-series data.

problem Predicting stock movements in financial markets with complex dynamics.
method Introduced Higher Order Transformers, extending self-attention and transformer architecture to capture complex market dynamics. Employed low-rank tensor decomposition and kernel attention to manage computational complexity. Integrated technical and fundamental analysis from historical prices and tweets.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of the method on the Stocknet dataset, improving stock movement prediction.

Study analyzes market co-movements in critical mineral investments using change point detection and cross-sectional analysis.

problem Market dynamics in critical mineral investments during significant global events.
method Combines change-point detection (PELT algorithm) with cross-sectional analysis on ESG-ranked ETFs.
result Investors herded during market downturns and shifted to anti-herding after positive news and geopolitical shocks.

GPT-4 improves stock price prediction from microblogging sentiments.

problem Improving stock price prediction using sentiment analysis of microblogs.
method Developed a novel method for contextual sentiment analysis using GPT-4, fine-tuning prompts for better accuracy.
result GPT-4 outperformed BERT in predicting stock price movements, achieving a peak accuracy of 71.47%.

A taxonomy of large financial crashes proposed in the literature locates the burst of speculative bubbles due to endogenous causes in the framework of extreme stock market crashes, defined as falls of market prices that are outlier with respect to the bulk of drawdown price movement distribution. This paper goes on dee…

2006-07-27abs ↗pdf ↗

New method for evolving surfaces using generalized power mean curvature flow.

problem Evolve surfaces with volume penalization replaced by a generalized term.
method Generalized minimizing movement scheme converging to geometric evolution equation.
result Minimizing movements coincide with smooth classical solutions and preserve mean convexity.

Equity options are known to be notoriously difficult to price accurately, and even with the development of established mathematical models there are many assumptions that must be made about the underlying processes driving market movements. As such, the theoretical prices outputted by these models are often slightly di…

2017-08-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.

problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.

In this paper we investigate predictability of electricity prices in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Ontario, as well as in the US Mid-C market. Using scale-dependent detrended fluctuation analysis, spectral analysis, and the probability distribution analysis we show that the studied markets exhibit strongly anti…

2015-01-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Study earnings calls to predict stock price movements, finding them more predictive than traditional data.

problem Improving investment decisions by analyzing earnings calls for stock price predictions.
method Graph Neural Network based approach to process and analyze earnings call transcripts.
result Earnings call transcripts are more predictive of stock price movements than traditional hard data.

Graph-based multi-view model predicts trading volume movement from various sources.

problem Lack of comprehensive understanding of trading volume movement from different sources.
method Graph-based approach incorporating long-term, short-term, and sudden event information.
result Our method outperforms strong baselines by a large margin.

Dynamic factor analysis reveals insights into Philippine stock market dynamics.

problem Understanding complex stock market dynamics.
method Dynamic factor model using Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation.
result Common factors extracted from the model represent market trends and volatility.

Study uses Granger causality to show investor sentiment influences stock prices.

problem Understanding the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market movements.
method Applied Granger causality to analyze the relationship between close price index and sentiment score.
result Sentiment analysis shows a positive correlation with stock price movements.

ChatGPT predicts stock market movements based on Bloomberg headlines, showing a positive correlation over short to medium terms.

problem Predicting stock market movements using news headlines.
method Used a two-stage prompt approach with a dataset of Bloomberg market summaries from 2010 to 2023.
result ChatGPT's sentiment scores correlate positively with future equity market returns over short to medium terms, with a negative correlation over longer horizons.

Machine learning models predict EUR/USD currency direction with 58.52% accuracy.

problem Predicting the directional movement of EUR/USD in the Foreign Exchange market.
method Comparative analysis of machine learning models, including decorrelated and non-decorrelated feature sets, and meta-estimators.
result 58.52% accuracy for one-day ahead forecasts.

The assessment of co-movement among metals is crucial to better understand the behaviors of the metal prices and the interactions with others that affect the changes in prices. In this study, both Wavelet Analysis and VARMA (Vector Autoregressive Moving Average) models are utilized. First, Multiple Wavelet Coherence (M…

2016-02-05abs ↗pdf ↗

We analyze high-resolution foreign exchange data consisting of 20 million data points of USD-JPY for 13 years to report firm statistical laws in distributions and correlations of exchange rate fluctuations. A conditional probability density analysis clearly shows the existence of trend-following movements at time scale…

2002-11-08abs ↗pdf ↗

We recast the Calabi flow in DeGiorgi's language of minimizing movements. We establish the long time existence of minimizing movements for K-energy with arbitrary initial condition. Furthermore we establish some a priori regularity of these solutions, and that sufficiently regular minimizing movements are smooth soluti…

2012-08-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Model predicts Bitcoin's future movements using multimodal pattern matching.

problem Challenges in predicting Bitcoin's volatile future movements.
method Ranking similar past chart patterns given current chart information.
result Improves directional prediction of Bitcoin's future movements.

GCNET predicts stock price movements using graph convolutional networks.

problem Predicting stock price movements using interrelated stocks data.
method GCNET models stock relations as an influence network, uses graph convolutional networks for prediction.
result GCNET significantly improves prediction accuracy and MCC measures.