A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study of most probable paths for anisotropic Brownian motions on manifolds.
Develops methods to find most probable paths on complex manifolds.
Develops a machine learning framework for computing most probable paths in stochastic systems.
The paper defines conditions for Gaussian process sample path regularity.
The path probability of a particle undergoing stochastic motion is studied by the use of functional technique, and the general formula is derived for the path probability distribution functional. The probability of finding paths inside a tube/band, the center of which is stipulated by a given path, is analytically eval…
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
Flow Matching enables robust training of CNFs with various probability paths.
To define oscillatory movements of securities market, we put in the non-local extension of Ito- equation for wavelet-images of random processes. It is proposed an algorithm of creation of evolutionary equation and a model of prediction of the most probable price movement path. It is carried out experimental validation …
The classical theorem of Fáry states that every planar graph can be represented by an embedding in which every edge is represented by a straight line segment. We consider generalizations of Fáry's theorem to surfaces equipped with Riemannian metrics. In this setting, we require that every edge is drawn as a shortest pa…
CNFs learn on manifolds using PPD, improving likelihood and sample quality.
This work develops a generic framework, called the bag-of-paths (BoP), for link and network data analysis. The central idea is to assign a probability distribution on the set of all paths in a network. More precisely, a Gibbs-Boltzmann distribution is defined over a bag of paths in a network, that is, on a representati…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are one of the most widely used statistical methods for analyzing sequence data. However, the reporting of output from HMMs has largely been restricted to the presentation of the most-probable (MAP) hidden state sequence, found via the Viterbi algorithm, or the sequence of most probable marg…
We present evolution equations for a family of paths that results from anisotropically weighting curve energies in non-linear statistics of manifold valued data. This situation arises when performing inference on data that have non-trivial covariance and are anisotropic distributed. The family can be interpreted as mos…
Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
A Bayesian framework models dynamic probability predictions over time.
This research develops a new model for cyber risk and insurance pricing.
BWFlow improves graph generation by smoothly interpolating graph components.
This paper optimizes paths for generative models using kinetic energy.
This paper introduces a novel, well-founded, betweenness measure, called the Bag-of-Paths (BoP) betweenness, as well as its extension, the BoP group betweenness, to tackle semisupervised classification problems on weighted directed graphs. The objective of semi-supervised classification is to assign a label to unlabele…
Study uses Bayes Hilbert framework to recover probability measure flows from sensors.
This paper uses probability tensors for efficient path planning in complex scenarios.
We describe the pricing and hedging of financial options without the use of probability using rough paths. By encoding the volatility of assets in an enhancement of the price trajectory, we give a pathwise presentation of the replication of European options. The continuity properties of rough-paths allow us to generali…
The Viterbi process can be extended indefinitely in a pairwise Markov model.
The relaxed maximum entropy problem is concerned with finding a probability distribution on a finite set that minimizes the relative entropy to a given prior distribution, while satisfying relaxed max-norm constraints with respect to a third observed multinomial distribution. We study the entire relaxation path for thi…
Representations based on random walks can exploit discrete data distributions for clustering and classification. We extend such representations from discrete to continuous distributions. Transition probabilities are now calculated using a diffusion equation with a diffusion coefficient that inversely depends on the dat…
A toolkit for path-norms enhances neural network generalization bounds.
This paper establishes a non-stochastic analogue of the celebrated result by Dubins and Schwarz about reduction of continuous martingales to Brownian motion via time change. We consider an idealized financial security with continuous price path, without making any stochastic assumptions. It is shown that typical price …
Given two points on a soup can or conical cup with lid, we find and classify all paths of minimal length connecting them. When the number of minimal paths is finite, there are at most four on a can and three on a cup. At worst, minimal paths are piece-wise smooth with three components, each of which is a classical geod…
This article addresses the problem of approximating the price of options on discrete and continuous arithmetic average of the underlying, i.e. discretely and continuously monitored Asian options, in local volatility models. A path-integral-type expression for option prices is obtained using a Brownian bridge representa…
We show that the Hausdorff distance between any forward and any backward surgery paths in the sphere graph is at most 2. From this it follows that the Hausdorff distance between any two surgery paths with the same initial sphere system and same target sphere system is at most 4. Our proof relies on understanding how su…
Method predicts hardware resource usage by control software with guaranteed linear convergence.
New algorithms sample from complex path measures using neural networks.
The paper uses machine learning to compute rare event probabilities in stochastic systems.
Study Fourier estimator for spot volatility with unbounded coefficients and jumps.
Efficient hybrid method for pricing barrier options with stochastic volatility.
New AI models improve financial hedging by reducing shortfall and tail risk.
Geometric approach clusters intersecting manifolds with high probability.
This paper considers possible price paths of a financial security in an idealized market. Its main result is that the variation index of typical price paths is at most 2, in this sense, typical price paths are not rougher than typical paths of Brownian motion. We do not make any stochastic assumptions and only assume t…
FFM generates functions between Gaussian and data distributions.
Without probability theory, we define classes of supermartingales, martingales, and semimartingales in idealized financial markets with continuous price paths. This allows us to establish probability-free versions of a number of standard results in martingale theory, including the Dubins-Schwarz theorem, the Girsanov t…
The regularization path of the Lasso can be shown to be piecewise linear, making it possible to "follow" and explicitly compute the entire path. We analyze in this paper this popular strategy, and prove that its worst case complexity is exponential in the number of variables. We then oppose this pessimistic result to a…
We compute the transition probability between two learning tasks, and show that it decomposes into two factors. The first depends on the geometry of the loss landscape of a model trained on each task, independent of any particular model used. This is related to an information theoretic distance function, but is insuffi…
PathNNs improve graph neural networks by distinguishing non-isomorphic graphs.
Study volatility models with rough paths, focusing on large deviations and option behavior.
We consider idealized financial markets in which price paths of the traded securities are cadlag functions, imposing mild restrictions on the allowed size of jumps. We prove the existence of quadratic variation for typical price paths, where the qualification "typical" means that there is a trading strategy that risks …
Paper simplifies calculating causation probabilities and ranks root causes.
It is common to encounter situations where one must solve a sequence of similar computational problems. Running a standard algorithm with worst-case runtime guarantees on each instance will fail to take advantage of valuable structure shared across the problem instances. For example, when a commuter drives from work to…