fintech-kMC simulates financial platforms for AI/ML model validation.
problem Validation of AI/ML models in real-world financial applications.
method Agent-based model with kinetic Monte Carlo engine.
result Generates realistic synthetic data for testing AI/ML models.
Paper analyzes Gibbs and Langevin Monte Carlo for interpolation regime, showing generalization from low errors.
problem Analyzing Gibbs and Langevin Monte Carlo in overparameterized interpolation regime.
method Data-dependent bounds and stability under approximation with Langevin Monte Carlo.
result Generalization is signaled by small training errors in noisy regime, with bounds stable under approximation.
A new test assesses how well observed networks fit a specified ERGM model.
problem Testing the goodness of fit for ERGMs with a single network observation.
method Kernel Stein discrepancy combined with a discrete Stein operator for ERGMs, Monte Carlo simulation.
result The test provides theoretical and practical support for assessing ERGM fit.
Paper uses MLMC for SCR calculation and stress tests, showing computational efficiency.
problem Computing SCR and stress tests for insurance companies.
method Multilevel Monte-Carlo (MLMC) estimator for maximum of conditional expectations.
result MLMC estimator is computationally more efficient and avoids regression issues.
DBPA assesses LLM perturbations using frequentist hypothesis testing.
problem Quantifying input perturbation impacts on LLM outputs.
method DBPA reformulates perturbation analysis as frequentist hypothesis testing, using Monte Carlo sampling for empirical null and alternative distributions.
result DBPA provides interpretable p-values and scalar effect sizes for LLM perturbations.
Tensor networks improve integration accuracy for high-dimensional problems.
problem Integration of high-dimensional functions with exponential convergence.
method Regression-free tensor network representations for integration.
result Exponential convergence achieved for non-analytic integrands.
PL-MCMC samples from normalizing flows' conditional distributions.
problem Sampling from complex conditional distributions learned by normalizing flows.
method Metropolis-Hastings implementation of PL-MCMC.
result PL-MCMC asymptotically samples from exact conditional distributions.
Study evaluates ML methods for two-sample testing with right-censored data.
problem Evaluating ML methods for two-sample testing with right-censored data.
method Developed and compared several ML-based methods with classical tests.
result Proposed methods outperform classical tests in terms of statistical power.
TARP tests accuracy of generative posterior estimators.
problem Assessing the accuracy of posterior estimators from generative models.
method TARP coverage testing method.
result TARP can detect inaccurate inferences in high-dimensional spaces.
Study on Monte-Carlo dropout for uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Variability in uncertainty estimation quality through Monte-Carlo dropout.
method Analysis of dropout behavior in neural networks.
result Observation of interesting properties for uncertainty estimation.
Recent developments in differentially private (DP) machine learning and DP Bayesian learning have enabled learning under strong privacy guarantees for the training data subjects. In this paper, we further extend the applicability of DP Bayesian learning by presenting the first general DP Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Develops non-parametric tests for group symmetry in data.
problem Lack of statistical tests for group symmetry in data.
method Formulates and implements non-parametric tests for distributional symmetry under specified groups.
result Develops tests for conditional invariance/equivariance and applies them to real-world data.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a workhorse of probabilistic modeling and inference, but are difficult to debug, and are prone to silent failure if implemented naively. We outline several strategies for testing the correctness of MCMC algorithms. Specifically, we advocate writing code in a modular way, w…
This paper improves Bayesian decision tree learning using HMC.
problem Bayesian decision tree learning is challenging due to a large parameter space.
method Develops and compares HMC-based algorithms for exploring Bayesian decision tree posteriors.
result HMC-based methods outperform existing methods in predictive accuracy and tree complexity.
A new method uses diffusion models to simulate financial markets accurately.
problem Generating realistic synthetic financial market data.
method Diffusion model approach with efficient numerical integration.
result Synthetic data closely matches observed market data in key aspects.
Novel algorithm solves optimal transport using evolving probability distributions and convolution.
problem Sample-based optimal transport problem.
method Adversarial formulation with convolution of adaptive kernel and evolving measure.
result Algorithm robust to dimensionality and produces complex maps.
Improved predictive posterior density estimation through optimized importance sampling.
problem Low signal-to-noise ratio in posterior predictive densities.
method Optimized importance sampling using a test-time variational proxy.
result Significantly improved estimates of predictive posterior densities.
The properties of statistical tests for hypotheses concerning the parameters of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) are investigated, using Monte Carlo techniques. We show that, in the presence of multifractality, conventional tests of long memory tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of no long memory. Ou…
An integrated and extendable approach for stress-testing loan portfolios
problem Stress-testing loan portfolios
method Simulate completed portfolios, generate uncertain cash flow history, compute credit risk metrics
result Enhanced stress-testing practices within any bank
We consider the problem of improving the efficiency of randomized Fourier feature maps to accelerate training and testing speed of kernel methods on large datasets. These approximate feature maps arise as Monte Carlo approximations to integral representations of shift-invariant kernel functions (e.g., Gaussian kernel).…
In this paper we consider a Lagrange Multiplier-type test (LM) to detect change in the mean of time series with heteroskedasticity of unknown form. We derive the limiting distribution under the null, and prove the consistency of the test against the alternative of either an abrupt or smooth changes in the mean. We perf…
Bayesian inference using stochastic neural networks ensembles.
problem Approximating Bayesian posterior distributions.
method Formulate stochastic ensembles of neural networks, train with variational inference, and evaluate using Monte Carlo dropout.
result Stochastic ensembles provide more accurate posterior estimates than other methods.
A new method predicts future paths using a Monte-Carlo approach.
problem Predicting future financial paths given historical data.
method Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method using maximum entropy model.
result Yields state-of-the-art predictions for future volatility and option smiles.
QAlign improves language model alignment with less compute, outperforming existing methods.
problem Improving language model performance with limited test-time computation.
method QAlign: sampling from optimal aligned distribution using Markov chain Monte Carlo.
result Consistent improvements over existing methods on various benchmarks.
The κ-generalised distribution fits daily stock returns well.
problem Stock returns are often heavy-tailed, not normally distributed.
method Used the κ-generalised distribution with a Monte-Carlo goodness of fit test. result The κ-generalised distribution fits historic daily stock returns well for a significant proportion of analyzed stocks. New method makes machine learning approximations unbiased and efficient.
problem Efficient sampling of complex probability distributions.
method Uses autoregressive neural networks with cluster updates and physical symmetries.
result Shows unbiased and low-variance approximations for phase transitions.
INT benchmark tests theorem proving agents' ability to generalize to unseen theorems.
problem Evaluating theorem proving agents' ability to generalize to unseen theorems.
method INT benchmark based on a theorem generation and proof procedure with adjustable knobs for measuring 6 types of generalization.
result MCTS can help agents prove new theorems.
This paper presents a method for testing the decision making systems of autonomous vehicles. Our approach involves perturbing stochastic elements in the vehicle's environment until the vehicle is involved in a collision. Instead of applying direct Monte Carlo sampling to find collision scenarios, we formulate the probl…
A new graph-based clustering method for moderate-dimensional data.
problem Performance degradation of existing graph-based clustering methods in high dimensions.
method Introduces UN-CCDs using NND-based MC-SRT for covering radii determination.
result UN-CCDs provide stable and competitive performance in moderate-sized datasets.
CRISP predicts individual-level COVID-19 risk based on contact data.
problem Estimating individual-level infection risk during the pandemic.
method Probabilistic graphical model using SEIR framework with contact data.
result Model accurately predicts infection spread and recovery times.
This paper develops a new framework to assess crypto portfolio risk using simulation methods.
problem Traditional financial risk models fail to capture crypto market characteristics like volatility and contagion.
method The framework integrates four components: volatility stress testing, hedging, contagion modeling, and Monte Carlo simulation.
result The framework robustly assesses crypto portfolio risk and is validated with real data.
Bayesian neural networks' performance varies with prior choice, affecting their ability to identify unknowns.
problem The impact of prior choice on Bayesian neural networks' ability to identify unknowns.
method Evaluation of different prior distributions on classification tasks using BNNs and NNs with Monte Carlo dropout.
result Prior choice significantly impacts BNNs' ability to identify unknowns, affecting true and false positive rates.
Forward inference techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo for probabilistic programming can be implemented in any programming language by creative use of standardized operating system functionality including processes, forking, mutexes, and shared memory. Exploiting this we have …
Improved Bayesian regression for large datasets using multilevel Gibbs sampling.
problem Efficiently handling large-scale Bayesian regression with complex posterior distributions.
method Developed a multilevel Gibbs sampler for linear mixed models, incorporating data clustering and correlated samples for variance reduction.
result Significant speed-up achieved for Bayesian regression without sacrificing predictive performance.
Enhances option pricing for American-style options using JDOI method.
problem Pricing American-style options efficiently under stochastic volatility.
method Extends DOI variance reduction technique to Lévy dynamics, combining with LSMC.
result Strong variance reduction in option pricing compared to standard LSMC.
seMCD computes depth functions with statistical guarantees using sequential Monte Carlo.
problem Computing depth functions is computationally challenging, especially in high dimensions.
method Sequential Monte Carlo methodology with theoretical and empirical guarantees.
result The seMCD method provides accurate depth approximations with fewer samples than traditional methods.
New algorithm reduces variance in Monte Carlo simulations using deep neural networks and policy gradients.
problem Reducing variance in Monte Carlo simulations for estimating function values.
method Optimal correlation search using deep neural networks and policy gradients.
result Optimal correlation function reduces variance by approximating and calibrating policy.
A new RL framework tackles asset allocation problems using Monte Carlo simulation.
problem Existing asset allocation methods fail to consider portfolio management and financial market characteristics.
method Proposes a new reinforcement learning framework that considers portfolio state and uses Monte Carlo simulation to prevent overfitting.
result The proposed method outperforms benchmarks in various test intervals.
Estimating predictive uncertainty is crucial for many computer vision tasks, from image classification to autonomous driving systems. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an sampling method for performing Bayesian inference. On the other hand, Dropout regularization has been proposed as an approximate model averaging techn…
We propose a nonparametric statistical test for goodness-of-fit: given a set of samples, the test determines how likely it is that these were generated from a target density function. The measure of goodness-of-fit is a divergence constructed via Stein's method using functions from a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. O…
Paper proposes an unbiased optimization method for Bayesian experimental design.
problem Maximizing expected information gain in Bayesian experimental design.
method Randomized multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method combined with stochastic gradient descent.
result An unbiased estimator for the gradient of expected information gain.
Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates integrals involving a posterior distribution by means of weighted samples. In th…
We present a method for performing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo that largely eliminates sample rejection for typical hyperparameters. In situations that would normally lead to rejection, instead a longer trajectory is computed until a new state is reached that can be accepted. This is achieved using Markov chain transitions…
Unbiased method for Bayesian posterior means using kinetic Langevin dynamics.
problem Estimating Bayesian posterior means efficiently and accurately.
method Combines advanced splitting methods with enhanced gradient approximations in a multilevel Monte Carlo approach.
result The method achieves unbiased estimates with finite variance and central limit theorem properties.
We translate the problem of calculating the entropy of a set of binary configurations/signals into a sequence of supervised classification tasks. Subsequently, one can use virtually any machine learning classification algorithm for computing entropy. This procedure can be used to compute entropy, and consequently the f…
Extends active subspace analysis to infinite dimensions.
problem Dimension reduction in infinite dimensional functionals.
method Defines an operator for Hilbert space, extends Euclidean properties, proposes Monte Carlo procedure.
result Desirable properties extend to infinite dimensional setting.
Machine learning improves financial stress testing in Indian markets.
problem Conventional stress testing limitations in Indian financial markets.
method Dimensionality reduction, latent factor modeling, Variational Autoencoders, Monte Carlo simulation.
result Improved flexibility, robustness, and realism in financial stress testing.
Proposes a new test for validating multivariate dynamic regression models.
problem Inadequate exogeneity conditions for conventional model specification tests in dynamic systems.
method Develops a generalized Durbin estimator for multiple-equation systems with dynamic dependencies, and constructs Wald tests.
result Bootstrap-based Wald tests improve finite-sample size control and validate the null hypothesis in multifactor models.