Monetary risk measures explained as functions of random variables.
problem Understanding monetary risk measures.
method Representation results and construction methods.
result Monetary risk measures as monotone and cash additive functions.
This paper connects monetary and star-shaped risk measures by showing their equivalence under certain conditions.
problem Understanding the relationship between monetary and star-shaped risk measures.
method Analyzing the acceptability of 0 and the normalization property.
result Monetary risk measures are only a translation away from star-shapedness under mild conditions.
This study shows how monetary uncertainty affects stock market reactions to macroeconomic news.
problem Understanding stock market reactions to macroeconomic news under varying levels of monetary uncertainty.
method Decomposes stock market response into cash flow and risk-free rate channels, analyzing time-varying effects.
result High monetary uncertainty weakens the positive stock market response to macroeconomic news.
The paper explores non-convex risk measures and their characterizations.
problem Characterizing non-convex risk measures without convexity or weak convexity.
method Characterizes monetary risk measures as lower envelopes of families of convex or coherent risk measures, considering law-invariance and SSD-consistency.
result Unified representation theorems for law-invariant risk measures, including VaR.
We study time-consistency questions for processes of monetary risk measures that depend on bounded discrete-time processes describing the evolution of financial values. The time horizon can be finite or infinite. We call a process of monetary risk measures time-consistent if it assigns to a process of financial values …
Study on efficiency in economies with risk-averse agents, finding Pareto optima.
problem Efficiency in economies with risk-averse agents.
method Analysis of utility functionals, existence and characterization of Pareto optima.
result Existence and comonotone characterization of Pareto optima for risk-averse agents.
The paper studies dynamic star-shaped risk measures and their representation.
problem Representing dynamic star-shaped risk measures and their properties.
method Representation theorems for dynamic monetary and star-shaped risk measures.
result Dynamic star-shaped risk measures can be represented as the lower envelope of a family of dynamic convex risk measures.
The paper uses LSM to solve complex monetary utility functions.
problem Computing dynamic monetary utility functions with high dimensions.
method Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm.
result LSM algorithm successfully applied to recursive Cost-of-Capital valuation.
Geometrically convex return risk measures on AM-algebras
problem Quantifying risk in time series analysis
method Extending return risk measures to general ordered vector spaces
result Establishing results on finiteness, continuity, separability, and dual and aggregation-based representations
Simple conditions for comonotonic additive risk measures from acceptance sets.
problem Conditions for comonotonic additive risk measures from acceptance sets.
method Conditions on acceptance sets for induced comonotonic additive risk measures.
result Acceptance sets induce comonotonic additive risk measures if and only if the acceptance sets and their complements are stable under convex combinations of comonotonic random variables.
Modeling banking system dynamics to govern systemic risk.
problem Managing systemic risk in a banking system model.
method Optimal control problem for mean field approximation, parameter α and γ determination. result Governing the probability of systemic risk between two thresholds.
Theory integrates loss aversion into expected utility for monetary returns.
problem Modeling loss aversion in expected utility theory.
method Develops state-dependent linear utility functions incorporating loss aversion.
result Contracts from monopolists in insurance markets.
The paper models and prices cyber insurance risks, distinguishing idiosyncratic, systematic, and systemic risks.
problem Modeling and pricing cyber insurance policies, especially for systemic risks.
method Distinguishes three types of cyber risks and proposes methods for their valuation.
result Complex methods are needed for systemic cyber risks, including risk-neutral valuation and monetary risk measures.
Skewness dispersion predicts future stock market returns, especially in months with monetary policy announcements.
problem Predicting future stock market returns using skewness dispersion.
method Cross-sectional analysis of firm-level realized skewness and stock market returns.
result Skewness dispersion is a significant predictor of future stock market returns, robust to various estimation methods.
Monetary risk measures are usually interpreted as the smallest amount of external capital that must be added to a financial position to make it acceptable. We propose a new concept: intrinsic risk measures and argue that this approach provides a direct path from unacceptable positions towards the acceptance set. Intrin…
Study develops hybrid model to mitigate stablecoin liquidity risk.
problem Increasing integration of stablecoins introduces liquidity risk during market stress.
method Hybrid monetary architecture with 100% reserve backing and liquidity facilities.
result Demonstrates significant reduction in peg deviations and stress persistence.
We consider the problem of decomposing monetary risk in the presence of a fully traded market in {\it some} risks. We show that a mark-to-market approach to pricing leads to such a decomposition if the risk measure is time-consistent in the sense of Delbaen.
We propose a simple model of inter-bank borrowing and lending where the evolution of the log-monetary reserves of N banks is described by a system of diffusion processes coupled through their drifts in such a way that stability of the system depends on the rate of inter-bank borrowing and lending. Systemic risk is ch…
Investigates Meyer risk measures and their applications in finance.
problem Existence and structure of Meyer risk measures.
method Fractional stochastic dominance and Meyer's utility function.
result Existence and structure of risk measures respecting v-SD order. New algorithm minimizes Bayesian regret in offline linear bandits.
problem Minimizing Bayesian regret in offline linear bandits.
method Proposes a new algorithm that directly minimizes upper bounds on Bayesian regret using conic optimization.
result Upper bounds are tight and guarantee superior performance compared to LCB.
Study on time-varying APT validity in Japanese stock market.
problem Validity of Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) in Japanese stock market over time.
method Rolling window method applied to Fama and MacBeth's two-step regression and Kamstra and Shi's generalized GRS test.
result APT validity is unstable over time in Japanese stock market, influenced by monetary policy and business cycle.
We propose a simple model of the banking system incorporating a game feature where the evolution of monetary reserve is modeled as a system of coupled Feller diffusions. The Markov Nash equilibrium generated through minimizing the linear quadratic cost subject to Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type processes creates liquidity and …
Model analyzes systemic risk in banking systems using stochastic differential equations.
problem Govern systemic risk in banking systems.
method Stochastic differential equations, optimal control problem, pseudo mean field approximation.
result Monetary authority can control systemic risk by optimizing bank behavior.
Paper studies central bank's strategy to control systemic risk in interbank system.
problem Minimizing average distance between log-monetary reserves and target levels.
method Weak formulation, Ekeland's variational principle, Gamma-convergence, stochastic Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation.
result Proves convergence of optimal strategies as number of banks increases.
Study improves U.S. monetary policy forecasting by integrating text and data.
problem Forecasting central bank policy decisions, especially the Fed's rate changes.
method Multi-modal approach combining structured data and unstructured text from Fed communications.
result Hybrid models outperform unimodal baselines, achieving a test AUC of 0.83.
Paper introduces quasi-logconvex risk measures and their properties.
problem Characterizing and understanding new risk measures.
method Characterization through dual representation and properties of acceptance sets.
result Established dual representation and taxonomy of quasi-logconvex risk measures.
New risk measures for financial and ESG risks using utility functions.
problem Assessing financial and ESG risks using traditional risk measures.
method Developed new risk measures based on utility functions.
result Properties of utility functions translate into properties of risk measures.
New set-valued star-shaped risk measures introduced for better risk assessment.
problem Improving risk assessment in financial contexts.
method Developed new set-valued star-shaped risk measures and proved their representation theorems.
result Set-valued star-shaped risk measures can be represented as unions of set-valued convex risk measures.
Paper characterizes star-shaped risk measures and their properties.
problem Characterizing risk measures in the presence of liquidity risk and competitive delegation.
method Characterization of star-shaped risk measures, study of their properties.
result Star-shaped risk measures include all practically used risk measures.
News on inflation and monetary policy impacts US household inflation expectations.
problem Understanding how news affects inflation expectations.
method Monthly disaggregated US data from 1978 to 2016, controlling for various factors.
result News on rising inflation and easier monetary policy has a stronger impact on inflation expectations.
Operational risk is the risk relative to monetary losses caused by failures of bank internal processes due to heterogeneous causes. A dynamical model including both spontaneous generation of losses and generation via interactions between different processes is presented; the efforts made by the bank to avoid the occurr…
Study finds monetary policy uncertainty negatively impacts Bitcoin returns.
problem Impact of monetary policy and uncertainty on cryptocurrencies market.
method Markov Switching Means VAR (MSM-VAR) method.
result Monetary policy uncertainty leads to a decline in Bitcoin returns.
Develops risk measures on Lipschitz spaces for financial positions.
problem Lack of standard cash-additive methods in Lipschitz spaces.
method Proposes Lipschitz-free space, uses additivity along benchmark-deviation instruments.
result Derives dual representations for convex and coherent risk measures.
Paper introduces new risk measures for default risk and model uncertainty.
problem Model uncertainty and default risk in rating systems.
method Introduces default risk measures and discusses their properties and impacts.
result Different default risk measures and margins of conservatism affect risk-weighted assets.
Algorithmic stablecoins optimize monetary policy to balance price stability.
problem Persistent inflation from centralized monetary policy.
method Propose and study a rule-based monetary policy model for algorithmic stablecoins.
result Optimal trade-off between price stability and supply stability.
Regardless of the gold-standard being considered as outdated, it provides valuable signs concerning the development of novel monetary standards, better adjusted to the current macroeconomic environment. By using a point of view of classical physics, the intent of this work is doing a review of the concept of monetary s…
This paper empirically analyses risk in the Euro relative to other currencies. Comparisons are made between a sub period encompassing the final transitional stage to full monetary union with a sub period prior to this. Stability in the face of speculative attack is examined using Extreme Value Theory to obtain estimate…
Kalshi prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency volatility through monetary policy and inflation signals.
problem Forecasting cryptocurrency volatility using prediction markets.
method Monetary policy and inflation signals from Kalshi prediction markets.
result Signals from Kalshi prediction markets predict cryptocurrency volatility with statistical significance.
Study examines remittances in Nepal, linking external demand and domestic monetary conditions.
problem Understanding the dynamics of remittances in Nepal's economy.
method Constructed composite indices via PCA for external demand and domestic monetary conditions. Used ARDL, cointegration, DOLS, ECM, and machine learning for analysis.
result Strong positive long-run effect of external demand on remittances, significant negative impact of tighter domestic monetary conditions.
In this paper we consider a mean-field model of interacting diffusions for the monetary reserves in which the reserves are subjected to a self- and cross-exciting shock. This is motivated by the financial acceleration and fire sales observed in the market. We derive a mean-field limit using a weak convergence analysis …
Model shows how past consumption affects household confidence, leading to varied economic outcomes.
problem Exploring how past consumption impacts current confidence and economic activity in a multi-household model.
method Developed a DSGE model where past consumption influences individual household confidence and consumption propensity.
result The model demonstrates a range of economic outcomes including high output with no crises, high output with increased volatility, and alternation of high and low output states.
RLFA estimates misstated monetary fraction with weighted sampling without replacement.
problem Estimating misstated monetary fraction with given accuracy and confidence.
method Developed new confidence sequences for weighted average of unknown values using randomized weighted sampling and side information.
result Adaptive methods improve accuracy of estimates based on side information's predictive power.
The paper studies the convergence of SAA for systemic risk measures.
problem Theoretical convergence of SAA for set-valued systemic risk measures.
method General theory and specific case study with mixed-integer programming formulations.
result Theoretical convergence results for SAA under Wijsman and Hausdorff topologies.
In this paper the dependence of wealth distribution and the velocity of money on the required reserve ratio is examined based on a random transfer model of money and computer simulations. A fractional reserve banking system is introduced to the model where money creation can be achieved by bank loans and the monetary a…
The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In …
Research shows SBP's tone impacts stock market returns positively or negatively.
problem Impact of State Bank of Pakistan's monetary policy communications on stock market.
method Sentiment analysis and high frequency stock market returns analysis.
result Positive or negative tone in SBP communications affects stock returns positively or negatively.
We study the problem of portfolio insurance from the point of view of a fund manager, who guarantees to the investor that the portfolio value at maturity will be above a fixed threshold. If, at maturity, the portfolio value is below the guaranteed level, a third party will refund the investor up to the guarantee. In ex…
This paper provides a unified framework, which allows, in particular, to study the structure of dynamic monetary risk measures and dynamic acceptability indices. The main mathematical tool, which we use here, and which allows us to significantly generalize existing results is the theory of L0-modules. In the first p…